Goldman Sachs Election Warning: Bitcoin, Stocks, Bonds [PREPARE]

well holy smokes we just got a hold of

the document that shows how Goldman

Sachs sees this election playing out and

quite frankly what it means for the

stock market both for Democrats and

Republicans sweep versus not sweep let's

just get right into it election reaction

function here we go Trump with

Republican sweep they give a 25% chance

of happening you are looking at if this

happens a potential increase in the S&P

500 of 3% this would be a big rally we

did have a trump rally after Trump won

in

2016 uh they believe that consumer

stocks could underperform due to the

weight of those potential tariffs on you

know Chinese companies and otherwise KL

Harris calls this the consumer tax

obviously this is something that Donald

Trump argues is just a tax on Chinese

companies and something beneficial

towards American companies anyway uh

there's a chance that if this happens

with the Republican sweep you could

actually see the 10-year treasury move

up 20 basis points and this would be

probably because of anticipations around

what's called Trump flation which would

just basically be tax cuts and tariffs

so on both ends of the candle Wall

Street folks like Robo bank or Goldman

or others they think that could be

inflationary now Donald Trump says that

won't be inflationary but what Wall

Street argues is that if you cut taxes

people have more to spend you could

create more demand and therefore more

inflation and at the same time is

cutting taxes if you're putting tariffs

on you're increasing in price for things

so you're making prices more expensive

and you're giving people more

opportunity to spend more uh so even

though you might not have this huge net

net benefit there price is up so

inflation up and therefore potentially

yields higher second wave of inflation

fears yada y y the economists had a big

piece this morning where they're

basically like and The Economist hates

Donald Trump okay so let's just be

really clear about that uh and I'm just

mentioning it because it it's related to

this but the economist thinks that uh

Donald Trump

in 2016 had a lot of people in his

administration that sort of restrained

him from doing trumpan things and uh The

Economist thinks over the past really

eight years Donald Trump has pretty much

fired everybody who's not like a full-on

disciple of Donald Trump and like go

Maga and so that in this next election

if Donald Trump wins he could be sort of

the immune thanks to Supreme Court

president who's able to do everything he

wants with his circle around him already

built out to do exactly what he wants to

do and this is why they think tariffs

could get through even if there's no

sweep uh if see via Trump divided

government you still get potentially uh

well you get a lower 10-year yield you

don't get the spike in the 10year but

you potentially still get tariffs and

deregulation but you uh get a little bit

less boost in the markets maybe only one

and a half% 30% probability here because

you don't get those tax benefits next

probability is about a 40% chance which

is really interesting because if you add

the uh Trump sweep versus Trump divided

government Goldman puts it at

55% 40% chance they actually think

Harris wins with the divided government

S&P 500 Falls but the dip ends up

getting bought weaker dollar and overall

lower yields and honestly I think like I

I'm a big believer that the most ironic

thing is what happens everybody's saying

there's like no chance of a democratic

sweep and I'm like oh my gosh what like

what if like markets are totally

mispriced for this like I'm not

imparting my opinion on what happens or

not it doesn't matter to me I just want

to report to you what others are saying

but I I think a democratic sweep is

woefully underpriced right now and uh

it's really going to rely on frankly

quiet Women Voters to come out in droves

more so than normally to skew all the

polling in predicted markets because

nobody thinks it's possible to get a Dem

sweep but remember this is the roie

weade election cycle so for men well

most men don't care about that but most

women do so that's going to be an

interesting one all right a democratic

sweep opens up the possibility that

corporate taxes could be raised this

would just be dumb I think if they do

sweep I really hope they don't do that

uh but they do see this as risk negative

uh and oil would be a loser as well uh

now before before we get to those times

I want you to see this chart right here

look at this Bitcoin under Harris down

3% Trump up

7% from an oil point of view we think

that uh there's a shot of oil being -

3.4% under Harris and up substantially

under Trump so we'll see uh we'll see

how that ends up going that would be

right here you see Regional Banks up

under Trump down under Harris

infrastructure up under Harris you can

kind of take a screenshot of this if you

want I won't go through all of it

Renewables up 6.8% under Harris that'd

be like an end phase right there Nas

actually did well today it's at 87 bucks

still pretty low though went all the way

down to 76 bucks there on earnings

that's crazy uh not good they're

definitely losing market share to like

Teslas and others but anyway under Trump

minus 45% so big move expected there

expecting small caps to move more under

Donald Trump uh and uh the NASDAQ

actually to move better under Harris if

you look at AI oh uh this was

interesting too expensive software they

may as well just write pounder here

which had an excellent earnings report

mind you but it it's still expensive is

crazy it's like a 4 and a half to 5 and

a half Peg depending on who Wall Street

or whose uh EPS estimates you use uh I

my own estimates put it at like four and

a half Wall Street puts it out like a

5.9 Peg it's crazy so I'm actually more

bullish on their growth but anyway uh

expensive software Trump Victory up down

under Harris which is interesting

because I feel like paler should do well

under expanded potentially military

conquest but anyway artificial

intelligence semiconductors up more

under Harris this makes sense think

chips act uh real estate I was surprised

by this real estate actually negative in

both cases but more negative under Trump

uh these would be like you know real

estate stocks probably like home

builders they just don't getting love uh

and then discretionary down

.9% uh along with staples down 1.3%

under Trump uh Staples more flat with

discretionary up under Harris because

you get rid of that tariff potential and

then these are some really interesting

polls you want to pay attention to I'll

be covering these live uh and so you'll

see the first polls are going to start

closing with Georgia around 400 p.m.

California time and 700 p.m. Eastern so

I'll be live covering this this is the

big one right here Pennsylvania this

will swing everything if Democrats swing

this which they're not expected to right

now uh it be a real big election Game

Changer so that's going to be 5:00 p.m.

California time I will obviously be live

for that that'll be that's going to be a

huge moment so uh anyway there you go

Goldman Sachs predictions you want to

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thank you so much for watching we'll see

you in the next one goodbye everyone and

good luck why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

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