wtf...? IRAN to launch MISSILES **SOON*, WW3, Port Strikes, Recession...

well holy smokes talk about Market

volatility this is an

insane insane time to be involved in

markets first we're going to talk about

what's going on this morning with Israel

and some fed speak and other information

but first I want to give you a quick

reminder of how crazy just the last 3

months have been listen to some of this

the S&P 500 is poised to close out the

quarter 5% at Fresh all-time highs while

the vix is 30% over a 17 handle that

would be the first time that has ever

happened where the market rallied 5% at

a time when volatility is also up so in

English things are going like this and

things are ending up high it this is

unprecedented listen to this the AI

winners basket per UBS in the quarter

literally went down 22% in one quarter

up 18% down 133% then up 16% all within

in the span of just one quarter we also

had the largest decline in 2-year

treasury yields since September of 2001

yes recessionary times you had one of

the largest defensive moves with

utilities and reats up over

15% you've also had gold ripping 14%

best quarter since 2016 and the largest

in uh unversioned the yield curve since

the first quarter of

2009 these are some crazy moves that

we're seeing here and the reality is we

had two assassination attempts last

quarter we had a president who quit his

reelection campaign now you've got

Insanity happening with the Port strike

which just started taking place

yesterday we have a I won't rehash all

of the things that we already talked

about on the Port strike because I have

a full video on the Port strike just

look at it on my channel so you already

know some of the basics that are going

on but the strike began at midnight you

know the doc workers are demanding

obviously more pay I think they want

about 77% more pay uh employers have

offered about 50% more pay when you hear

the names by the way it gets confusing

the international long shoreman

Association that's the union those are

the workers the Ila and the United

States Maritime Alliance that's the

employer uh so I know that gets a little

confusing folks but I mean the the type

of red Ric that you're getting out of

the Union boss is I mean if you're in a

union exactly what you want your union

boss to say but if you're an economist

who's like oh my gosh we don't need more

stuff to drive us into a recession this

would be exactly what you don't want a

union boss to say I'll pull up the video

of this Union boss if you haven't seen

it yet it's Absolut like this is the

kind of stuff like if somebody wanted to

make a movie that was just called

volatility like these are all the things

that would happen you know short of

another pandemic like Iran threatening

to launch a ballistic missile at at

Israel uh and that is apparently now

imminent with a missile that could

arrive in the span of 12 minutes are you

freaking kidding me it's crazy but

listen to this Union boss for a moment

this is this is pretty wild too uh

volume's right today's world it's

changing into the future they're not

making millions no more they're making

billions and they're spending it fast as

they make it I want a piece of half of

my men cuz when they made their most

money was during coic when my men had to

go to work on those peers every single

day when everybody stayed home and went

to work not my men they died out there

with the virus we all got sick with the

virus we kept them going from Canada to

maina Texas Great Lakes Puerto Rico now

the Bahamas everybody went to work

during Co nobody stayed

home well I want to be conf for that I'm

not asking for the world they know what

I want they know what I want and if they

don't well then I have to go into the

street and we have to fight for what we

rightfully deserve these people today

don't know what a strike is

right when my men hit the streets from

Maine to Texas every single port will

lock down you know what's going to

happen I'll tell

you first week

be all over the news every night boom

boom second

week guys who sell cars can't sell cars

because the cars ain't coming in off the

ships they get laid off third week malls

start closing down they can't get the

goods from China they can't sell clothes

they can't do this everything in the

United States comes on a ship they go

out of business construction workers get

laid off because the materials aren't

coming in the steel bill is not coming

in the Lumber's not coming in they lose

their job everybody's hating the long

shaan now because now they realize how

important our jobs are now I have the

president screaming at me I'm putting a

t Harley on you go ahead T heartley

quickly the TA Harley would be a way of

forcing striking workers back to work

when it's for economic or national

security concerns this by the way what

he's about to say is wild because he

basically says F your ta heartly act

will'll just sandbag crazy listen to it

and then we'll talk implication means I

have to go back to work for 90 days

that's a cooling off period do you think

when I go back for 90 days those men are

going to go to work on that Pier it's

going to cost the money the company's

money to pay their salaries while they

go went from 30 moves an hour maybe to

eight they're going to be like this

who's going to win here in the long run

you're better off sting down and let's

get a contract and let's move on with

this world and today's world I'll

you I will you and you

have no idea what that means nobody

yikes so I mean obviously a really Stern

warning here from a union boss again if

you're a union member this is exactly

what you would want you you look at this

person you go yes tell it like it is

obviously employers are like oh my gosh

profit margins have gotten squeezed uh

the economy slowed down things have

gotten tighter we need automation you

know was the same kind of fights that

we've seen in the 50s against the

innovation of the container we we've

we've seen anti- Innovation fights uh

before from from manual laborers and and

I get it uh but the point is this now

comes at the same time as Israeli forces

are conducting operations in Lebanon

they've issued now evacuation warnings

to 26 different villages in uh Southern

Lebanon uh Israel is conducting uh

strikes within the region specifically

uh trying to avoid cities so they say

but you know you've got Israelis quite

frankly a lot of videos of israeli's

leveling areas and towns uh inside of uh

of the West Bank and people are like bro

this is this is excessive here and so uh

however it's portrayed doesn't matter

one side's always going to view Israel

as excessive and Israel is always going

to view it as we're just responding but

the point is Iran's now potentially

suggesting hey it's time to go

intercontinental ballistic missile or

maybe even short range ballistic missile

uh War here which then begs the question

if Israel gets hit really hard oh yeah

listen to this Israel Israel military

spokesman says potential missile attack

from Iran expected to be widespread this

isn't like one

missile and then they shoot it down like

this is expected to be in my opinion a

vol of short- range ballistic missiles

and if Israel gets pummeled to where

like you the system's not perfect it

doesn't actually take these uh take all

these uh short-range ballistic missiles

down in that case unfortunately there is

a risk that Israel turns around and says

f it bring out the Strategic nukes

against Iran which The Economist just

this morning wrote a piece about how

after the decapitation of Hezbollah Iran

could be racing for a nuclear bomb uh

well that's not great uh so now you have

this potential risk that you end up

having a World War III style nuclear

warfare in the Middle East and then you

potentially have Russia and China

getting involved this is how you get to

World War uh potentially trying to

create peace but then they have to take

sides in order to to potentially try to

uh contribute to uh resolving issues

then you potentially also lead to Saudi

Arabia Egypt and turkey responding or at

least building their nuclear Arsenal now

what you end up having is nuclear

proliferation rather than

nonproliferation operation okay then

we're not going to care anymore about

iPhone 16's not selling as well we're

not going to care uh so much uh about uh

Bond Traders buying the dip in bonds

after the contraction in factory jobs

we're just not going to care about these

things anymore uh we're going to be in a

position where we look at this and go oh

hot Tua this ain't good uh now all of a

sudden when we look at the economic

calendar we go yeah sure we have had a

joltz report that was decent this

morning uh but uh you know it it came in

hotter than expected with an upward

revision uh but what do you what do you

end up with you end up with uh ISM

Manufacturing employment that came in

way lower than expected

uh um let me see here okay yeah there we

go uh okay so um yeah anyway so you have

this ah this just it's just crazy you

know this the data this morning is just

so wild quite frankly it's so wild

because you're in an environment where

the data is just so unclear because we

don't know what to believe some data is

going to be revised other data is not

going to be revised some data is good

some data is bad we don't know what to

believe all we know is we have more

uncertainty so ISM employment goes down

but jolt says there are more openings

but at the same time time construction

spending is coming down like this is

just this is a mess of freaking data at

the same time as you have this Israel

crisis and you have a strike going on a

worker strike this is crazy this is like

if you were going to write a story about

how recessions are started this is it

the worker strike goes through the

election would be very bad now it's

possible the worker strike goes through

the election because the Biden

Administration might not want to

intervene until the election because

they don't want to come across this

anti-un but if they

you don't intervene then they flirt with

the idea of potentially creating a

recession which isn't good of course

they could say oh well hey fed you mop

it up that's not good so the longer this

strike goes on the worse I don't

actually think it'll be Consumer Price

inflationary uh I actually think that

consumer prices will stay pretty stable

mostly because companies don't have

pricing power anymore there's a limit to

how much you can raise prices people

just are not willing to pay prices uh

that are high anymore Good News by the

way though we do have a coupon code #

jobs that expires this Friday you can

see my trades in this environment our

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in the course member live stream and you

get lifetime access to that so you pay

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the community you get to chat with

everybody in the community you get to be

a part of the community you get to

listen to the fundamental analysis that

I do on a daily basis you name it so the

data today was just hyper clear along

with all the other uncertainties we've

seen is why we're seeing such a movement

uh a lot of people are ironically

fleeing to well maybe unironically I

should say uh unironically fleeing to uh

gold selling Bitcoin going to gold and

uh going to bonds you know bonds up

quite a bit bond yields down which uh

now we're in an environment where you

actually have uh you know evidence that

shows hey wow okay having Hedges is a

good thing for a port folio on down

dayss like this people always think like

oh if you have a hedge that means uh you

just you you're only a shorter no you

could also have calls that are hedges

but anyway uh like a call on gold or a

call on something else like some of the

the hedges that I like but uh a lot of

uncertainty here we'll see what happens

with Israel and Iran I will keep you up

to date I wouldn't be surprised if they

try to pull something off honestly

during the debate the VP debate that

might be the time to do it it's kind of

dirty but it might happen as they

usually like to strike at night too time

in Israel right now it's 7:03 p.m. in

Israel like it's just starting to get

dark the window opens at night uh then

uh data this morning hyper confusing The

Oddities that we're seeing in the

environment in terms of like how

volatile things are very high but then

you also have to balance this with hey

recognize that uh there's there's so

much uncertainty that sometimes this

these levels of uncertainty can actually

breed opport opportunity if we don't end

up having a recession maybe these are

all just by the dips I mean look Nvidia

is down 32% you know is it to buy the

dip I don't know we're going to have a

recession or not Samsung's apparently

laying off thousands of workers and now

there talks about you know potentially a

certain gb200 or whatever uh server chip

getting delayed by Nvidia I I don't know

that that really actually matters or

means anything but uh it's a wild time

and I encourage you to be careful out

there protect yourself protect your

portfolio uh we do expect to get Tesla

deliveries tomorrow morning then we'll

have the robo tax event I'll be covering

the um debate tonight live so come join

the channel and then as far as other

economic news tomorrow morning at 5:15

so a little earlier we will get the ADP

employment change so come for that as

well followed by obviously a jobs report

on Friday unemployment claims and all

that on Thursday thank you so very much

for being here folks buckle up because

this is wild we could be on the brink of

a soft Landing an election being over

and a lot of uncertainties going away

and no Wars or we could be on the brink

of World War 3 and a

recession that's pretty extreme why not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it Go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

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