Flipping.

oh boy you've all been waiting for it

the giant meet Kevin

flipflop what a day the stock market S&P

500 1 a 12% over all-time highs Tesla up

nearly 7% Jim Kramer poops on paler so

badly yesterday calling it a barometer

of momentum a meme stock a CT stock and

he's not even sure if it's actually a

stock I tweeted about this on X by the

way posted about it uh and pound your up

everything's going up the market is in

full-fledged Euphoria mode and

everybody's been waiting for Kevin to

say this is it this is the fundamental

data we have been looking for that says

this is it we are going all in baby we

are going back to being

Bulls well the morning as many and we're

going to talk about it here but this

morning as many of you over uh frankly

somewhere around 1500 or 2,000 of you

that already know about this thank you

so much for joining me this morning in

our course member live stream those of

you we already went through a 48 minute

custom course member live on exactly

positioning evaluations and thoughts and

remember we still got that flash sale

going on until noon so if you want to be

part of that you got a few hours left

here to hop in on that flash sale check

that out by going to meet Kevin

and you can always for the rest of

forever get those course member live

streams so if in 8 years you're like I

wonder what Kevin's 48 minute

positioning update is you too could see

it and see my thesis and rationale

behind everything but for now we've got

to talk about going bullish because

frankly right now what's happening in

markets is markets are saying huh maybe

we need to take profit on our recession

Hedges you saw gold move down a little

bit you saw bonds move down a little bit

uh which are generally considered

recession Hedges uh and now you're

seeing

recession uh uh you know recovery plays

which are generally considered risk

assets right think about uh when the

Federal Reserve capitulates like they

did at the bottom of the market in 2009

at the bottom of the market in uh March

of 2003 at the bottom of the market uh

you know in in the late 80s when the FED

capitulates it's usually at the bottom

of the market and it's time to go all in

because risk asset

Moon NASDAQ goes to alltime highs uh

small cap Skyrocket you know crypto

related assets if they existed back then

would probably go to all-time

highs fed capitulation is a great time

to go all in and so a lot of folks are

wondering Kevin is is this a Fed

capitulation uh and we have to

understand the fundamentals of this and

I think history is an interesting guide

so first of all right now we are getting

a turning point in the FED as drone

Powell likes to call it a recalibration

but is this a Federal Reserve

capitulation is this the FED saying hey

we are just going to go all in and

bailout

markets no what we actually got was the

Federal Reserve saying hey everything's

fine we're just going to try to front

run some labor market weakening

interesting so to front run labor market

weakening what you're going to do is

you're going to try to drive yields down

but what you ineffect did is you

actually drove yields up because people

are covering their recession Hedges and

yields went up so now all of a sudden

when you look at the ADP employment

report and you find out which sector of

the labor market is the weakest and you

realize it's small businesses small

businesses that usually aren't public

you go oh higher yields actually hurts

the weakest part of the labor market and

actually exacerbates the problem so the

FED didn't actually bail anything out

yesterday the FED certainly didn't

capitulate if anything they actually

accomplished literally the opposite of

what they're trying to accomplish they

have just tightened Financial conditions

for credit cards for loans on Teslas for

financing on solar panels for the

30-year mortgage all of those got more

expensive so think about that how weird

this is for a moment the FED Cuts rates

with a surprise

50 and every rate that people are

exposed to gets more more expensive you

know people like oh it's the start of

the rate cut cycle yay Tesla's going to

go to the moon it's true Tesla's 6 and a

half or whatever perc today but wait a

minute rate just got more expensive

expenses just went up at Tesla for them

to pay those buy Downs for you the start

of the rate cut cycle so far is doing

exactly the opposite of what we would

expect this is not a fed capitulation

this is a turning point in fed policy

but fundamentally nothing has changed we

are still in an environment with weaker

than uh historical ISM Services we uh

you know in in non-recessionary times we

should not be this weak on ISM Services

we are still in an environment where job

openings and the job market is rapidly

slowing and even Jerome Powell himself

acknowledge that you know there's going

to be a lag to our 50 basis point cut

okay great so in other words not only

are yields going up right now but your

rescuing of this jobs Market isn't

really happening yet okay great so now

all of a sudden we look and go okay so

we're not actually getting near-term

support from the Federal Reserve for

undoing a recession so what fundamental

data that we get that would indicate

maybe no recession well maybe GDP right

GDP is obviously a good predictor uh but

it's also not part of the federal

reserve's mandate the federal reserve's

mandate is around jobs and inflation and

If the Fed loses control on jobs GDP

rolls over second it is not a leading

indicator it's a lagging indicator uh

and then of course you know layoff

indications which are rightfully still

low right now and probably go down as

the stock market Rises for larger cap

companies does help us move further away

from a recession right uh because as

stock markets rise you have less of a uh

you know less of uh being near a trigger

point so to speak for layoffs where

valuations have collapsed so much that

you have to layoff just to try to save

the business you're further away from

that as a stock market hits all-time

Highs but it doesn't mean that

recessionary considerations that are

still present have all of a sudden

evaporated and so this is fascinating

because a lot of folks they look very

simply and they go oh you know Kevin's

been bearish so Kevin must be getting

smoked and what's fascinating is my

Hedge the underlying uh position that my

hedge is exposed to is down like one and

a half per. you know we talked a lot

about positioning repositioning Chang

all of that in the course member live

this morning make sure you're part of

that but it's actually kind of

remarkable because if you look at it

you're like huh

interesting usually when the market

skyrockets uh Hedges get absolutely

destroyed and smoked uh and so I think

there there are really interesting ways

not to be short the market that pay off

disproportionately well if you go into

recession but you don't want a recession

right recession is really bad for

startups all three of the startups I

have recession is really bad for but

what I'm looking at is I'm looking at

fundamental data temporary job hiring

real domestic investment spending the

repid of the steepening of the yield

curve which is now exacerbating right

we're at like 13 basis points uninverted

and usually when you get to about 50

that's when you're really triggering

that recessionary pain you're looking

for a recovery in private jobs and

healthcare jobs you're looking for

Recovery in both of those those are

still both collapsing right these are

problems of course we've got more data

coming up more jobs reports more

inflation reports we've got Q3 Q4

earnings we've got an election coming up

and so what's fascinating is looking

back at history history actually tells

us that when the Federal Reserve goes

for a 50 especially when it's unexpected

you get a near-term rally consider this

for a moment I want you to go back to

2007

2008 let's go to 2007 we cut interest

rates 50 basis points on a surprise

right about here uh September 18th

approximately and you'll notice the

NASDAQ actually Rose an additional

115% uh from the interest rate cut of 50

to all-time highs and after that 6 week

rally that you got in the stock market

the market went into session and

proceeded to Collapse by

54.5% so then I look I go well wait a

minute you know things are rallying this

is wonderful this is excellent it's time

to go all in isn't it I mean stocks are

up so everything must be good right and

so I take out my recession sheet and I

go okay cool what's fundamentally

changed well if the FED is reducing by

50 that should be bullish because it

should mean yields are going down and

we're reducing the odds of recession but

wait a minute

nothing's fundamentally changed we still

have the recessionary red flags and oh

damn yields went up which is more

recessionary not less

recessionary well that's unfortunate so

then you wonder okay well what are the

next catalysts well you have fed speak

that could talk rates down right you

could keep markets still elevated and

you could talk rates down Harker talks

tomorrow at 2 p.m. eastern time Bostic

Monday at 8 goul spe Monday at 10:15

Kari Monday at 1 Collins next Thursday

at 10 uh 9:10 Powell next Thursday at

920 write these things down Williams

Thursday at 9:25 next Thursday uh next

Thursday bar at 10:30 next Thursday

kashari at 1 uh next Friday Collins at

9:30 and two Mondays from now at 1 p.m.

you get Powell then you get the October

4th jobs report the October 10th CPI

report the November 1 jobs report then

you have the election then you have the

November 13th CPI report but because

yields are actually Rising right right

now I actually have reduced my position

on the bare bull scale you know

yesterday I'm like they went 50 this is

bullish so I went from you know 35 to 36

now I'm down to 34 CU I'm like bro this

is the market is doing the opposite in

terms of yields of what it should be

doing following this fed move and it's

eerily similar to what happened during

the last recession now remember when the

FED starts with a 50 out of the last 21

rate cut Cycles you have a 50% chance of

recession historically and so in my

opinion this is not the time to cut

Hedges and I'm not saying that you

should be all in on a hedge right we

talked about my you know $2.5 million

trades this morning are they up are they

down am I repositioning am I buying what

am I doing we talked about all that in

the course of my life make sure you're

part of that by that uh uh the course

before uh noon today the flash Sal but

remember hedging isn't supposed to be

your entire portfolio it's not supposed

to be the only thing that you have

hedging is supposed to be something

think that you know in the event of a

tail risk we call it in finance in the

event of a tail risk where you fall into

a recession you have a disproportionate

upside uh and and hopefully a more

limited

downside uh and for

me nothing has changed for me to say oh

it's time to fully flip-flop and go

bullish and buy stocks if anything

valuations have gotten more dumb paler

is trading at a 4.5 Peg and while it's

got the momentum and it can keep going

that is twice the valuation it should be

Tesla is trading at a three peg that is

nearly twice the valuation it should be

trade desk uh is trading closer to a

three peg not that bad it's actually not

that heavily overvalued uh and and then

like an end phase or ubiquity those are

actually still pretty decently valued

Nvidia is actually decently valued as

well uh relative to some of these these

sort of earnings growth metrics but I

actually think this is an environment

that is so eerily similar to 200 7 that

this idea of oh the stock market's up

it's time to flip bullish is just like

without logic or Reason and and and is

very dangerous of course there's always

the risk of uh of of you know biases or

or whatever uh but I think that's why

it's so important for everybody

individually to evaluate okay what what

information uh is useful for my

portfolio right uh and so uh if you want

go look at the 48 uh uh minute live

stream we had this morning uh but I'll

give you a hint here

uh you know am I flipping bullish

because that's what everybody's asking

me no this is

bad like I know I sound like a clown

when the stock market is is flying today

and and I'm like this is bad I know that

sounds

stupid but look at 2007 okay that's all

I got to say I love you all we'll see

you in the next one

[Music]

why not advertise these things that you

told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try little

advertising in CR go congratulations man

you have done so much people love you

people look up to you Kevin P there

financial analyst and YouTuber meet

Kevin always great to get your

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