Nothing Can Pump Bitcoin — Until This Breaks | The Global Liquidity Trap Explained

The proc crypto president can't pump

Bitcoin.

The weaker dollar cannot pump Bitcoin.

Institutional adoption can't pump

Bitcoin. The Fed injecting liquidity,

stock at all-time highs can't do it

either. So the question is this. If

nothing can't pump Bitcoin, what exactly

is holding it back?

And more importantly, which comes first?

Bitcoin at $300,000 or a massive global

liquidity drain that resets everything.

This is not about a Bitcoin debate. This

is a liquidity regime debate. The chart

you're showing that I'm showing you now

tells you far more about narratives than

than the financial media. Of course,

they're not going to show you this

because [snorts] it's kind of boring,

but I'm want to make it interesting.

So what you're seeing

the blue line

is Bitcoin price.

Okay. The green line is global M2

liquidity

the the liquidity it's called the um

the liquidity from the Federal Reserve.

So money going to the system essentially

global M2 is shifted forward by 3

months.

So this means the green line is leading

the money in the system. The blue line

is reacting.

Liquidity moves first. Real risk assets

then they respond later.

So the left axis is the basically the

amount of global in trillion of M2 money

supply and on the right axis is the

Bitcoin price. lock sale. Lock scale

matters because Bitcoin is exponentially

by by nature and percentage moves matter

more than absolute dollars. And this is

something that I'm always doing. I'm

never showing you absolute numbers like

the price going up doesn't mean

anything.

You need to understand from a relative

basis.

I mean you're a tall guy, sure, but

compared to an ant, you're gigantic.

So you're gigantic or you're tall.

Exactly.

So the critical insight is this. From

the late 2023 through mid 2025, global

liquidity expands aggressively

and Bitcoin follows with a bit of a lag

as you could see.

But notice what happens next. Liquidity

keeps rising the green line,

but Bitcoin stalls and rolls over.

That's the story.

So what happened? Why

rate cuts didn't work? Rate cuts without

balance sheet expansion is cosmetic.

What I mean by that is they cut the

rates. Remember the government, the the

Fed. So markets don't trade on rates.

The market trades on net liquidity.

So if the rate cuts offset by QT,

Treasury insurance and dollar funding

stress, then they are irrelevant.

Bitcoin didn't stall because cuts

failed. It stalled because cuts didn't

add net liquidity. We understand that

markets don't run

on the ideology. They run on cash flows.

Policy signaling matters only when it

changes funding condition.

No change in collateral availability,

dollar liquidity, leverage capacity

means a not sustained bids.

A weaker dollar didn't work.

This is critical. Bitcoin is not a

simple anti-doll trade anymore. It's a

globally leveraged system. A weak dollar

can't coexist with liquidity scarcity.

Bitcoin doesn't respond to the the

headlines. It responds to crossborder

dollar availability.

Institutional adoptions didn't work.

This one hurts narratives the most. ETF

didn't fail. They completed their job,

right? They converted speculative

enthusiasm into regulated exposure.

Meaning that ETF that holds a bitcoin.

They absorbed early demand. Normalized

Bitcoin into a macro asset stack. You

can, and I tell that to my subscribers

and to my members all the time. You

know, these are the ETF that you could

buy to actually hold

Bitcoin. So, you don't have to worry too

much about it. But ETF do not create

leverage. Liquidity does.

The stocks at all-time high didn't

didn't work either to sustain Bitcoin

because equity strength right now is

narrow, defensive, balance sheetdriven.

This is not a 2020 star reflexive risk

on. It's it's buy back buyback. It's

it's it's mega cap concentration. It's

duration hiding. Bitcoin doesn't rely on

defensing.

Bitcoin does not rely

and rally on defensive equity strength.

So the real driver is global liquidity

quality.

This is the most part most people miss.

Not all liquidity is equal. Is this

liquidity

a good liquidity?

You have lots of water, but can you

drink it?

What type of liquidity matters?

Okay,

Bitcoin responds to unsterilized

liquidity, leverage enabled liquidity

and crossber liquidity.

What you have instead, you have

liquidity trapped in sovereign balance

sheets, liquidity absorbed by treasury

assurance.

Yeah, you have lots of liquidity, but

you using it to refinance yourself

because you owe so much money you're

paying yourself. That's literally what's

happening with the US. And be careful

that cannot keep on going if the dollar

gets weaker. Liquidity sterilized by

regulatory capital constraints. That is

why global M2 rises and Bitcoin doesn't

respond proportionally.

The system is liquidity rich but it is

leverage poor.

So

two potential future.

Okay. I mean basically all you need to

understand is this. I mean there's a lot

to understand but let me make it easy

for you. Basically you have to realize

that liquidity went up and the and and

and Bitcoin went up with liquidity but

then it just didn't. Why? Because that

liquidity is not the same anymore.

Because the US could print money, could

could could do lots of things, could

lower rates, but nobody believes in

lower rates. Right now, we lowered the

rates, but nobody believes that the

inflation is out of the way. The market

is very, very smart. It's like an

entity. It understands everything.

So,

two possible features. Scenario one,

Bitcoin, $300,000, and you can make

money with Bitcoin without actually

owning it. You just buy a bunch ETF. And

I could show you that. I will address

that in the coming weeks in my uh in my

channel for my members only. Okay,

members I get more specific. So this

only happens if central bank lose

control of the funding stress.

QT is abandoned globally. Fiscal

dominance accelerate and sovereign

issuance overwhelms the buyers and

liquidity leaks into speculative assets.

Again,

in this case,

Bitcoin rises gradually. It it prices

violently, not because of believer,

because there is nowhere else for

liquidity to go. Where you going to put

your money? You don't trust anything

anymore.

That's why you kind of seeing gold going

the way it did and and Bitcoin the way

it did because they said that, well,

maybe they know what they're doing after

all.

Scenario number two, this is more

probable than the first.

um a massive global liquidity suckout.

This is how it happens. Government issue

more debt. Okay. Central banks refuse to

monetize aggressively. Risk assets

compete for shrinking liquidity and

leverage contracts. Bitcoin doesn't

crash because it's bad. It stalls

because liquidity is rationed is

rationed.

This would look like sideways chop.

violent rallies that fail. Increasing

volatility without a trend.

So investor playbook

and this is a mistake retail makes. They

ask what will pump Bitcoin and the

professional

what we ask is what will break the

liquidity constraints

because we know what's moving this thing

and and and and I think I shown that

before but basically Bitcoin doesn't

lead cycles anymore. It confirms regime

shifts. That is how you have to read

this thing.

So what should you be watching?

You need to watch a global central

bank's balance sheets, the treasury

issuance versus absorption, the repo

market, crosscurrency, emerging markets,

dollar funding.

When those break, Bitcoin won't need a

narrative.

So in conclusion,

Bitcoin is not broken.

It's just a system is transitioning.

We are between financial repression and

financial capitalization.

Bitcoin at 300,000 is not a forecast.

It's going to be a consequence. A

consequence only arrived after liquidity

fails somewhere else first. So remember,

liquidity

tied to Bitcoin.