Trump's Tariffs ANNOUNCED [Stocks Panic - It Begins]

oh Donald Trump just shocked markets by

actually potentially releasing the

tariffs that just yesterday mainstream

media was saying ah Trump doesn't have a

plan the tariffs aren't coming it was

just a negotiation strategy and frankly

everybody on Wall Street was saying this

Wall Street was actually rallying today

on the belief that the Tariff deadline's

going to come and go they'll delay it to

March was a rumor this morning well

White House Press Secretary just poured

cold water on all of that Holy smok

listen to what is coming down the pike

here we go let's listen to it right now

um friends at Reuters are reporting that

the president has made a decision on uh

the Canada and Mexico tariffs but that

they won't actually be implemented until

March 1st I was wondering if you could

confirm that and talk through some of

the president name I saw that report and

it is false I was just with the

president in the Oval Office and I can

confirm that tomorrow the February 1st

deadline that President Trump put into

place at a statement several weeks ago

continued the president will be

implementing tomorrow a 25% tariffs on

Mexico 25% tariffs on Canada and a 10%

tariff on China for the illegal fentanyl

that they have sourced and allowed to

distribute into our country which has

killed tens of millions of Americans

these are promises made and Promises

Kept by the president the president

yesterday said that um last night he was

planning to discuss whether an exemption

would be made on oil imports do you have

any information on what decision he made

there or will there be exemptions at all

offered under those I don't have an

update or readout for you on the

exemptions but those tariffs will be for

public consumption in about 24 hours

tomorrow um so you can read them then

okay we got to break down the impact of

this and we're going to calculate the

impact of it together right now quick

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over at me kevin.com okay let's break

this down on the IP ad here and break

down what do we actually think this

means well first of all as of

2023 uh Mexico Canada and uh China

accounted for uh various levels of trade

as a percentage of our GDP and it's it's

important to look at this so we can

actually value how much of an impact on

uh ultimately our GDP this could end up

having so if I go to Mexico I got 3.2%

as of 2023 of our GDP comes from this

trade we've got uh 3.3% Canada and uh

2.1% China okay so what do we end up

having here well let's go put weights on

this 25% 25% and 10% so we're just going

to do a very very simple weighted

average formula here uh and let's see

the impact that we could actually be

expecting here on GDP now keep in mind

it's not just the impact of this which

isn't necessarily so huge from the point

of view of the the entire economy it's

how it all ends up adding up and

affecting total growth right so this was

the percentage of GDP so

originally uh the percentage of GDP in

total would be what is that about

88.6% if I just mentally total that up

together uh and then over here this

would be the weighted average uh sort of

uh some impact so let's add these

together here uh we'll just get go add

add add there we go on the iPad okay so

we're shaving off about a total here of

about

1.8 uh% uh which isn't great it gives

you kind of a weighted average of what

is at about 20 a little over 20% of uh

uh the total impact uh that we have from

from this uh trade here this works out

to about $2.3 trillion mind you so if we

figure 2.3 trillion dollar uh is now all

of a sudden going to get reduced uh by a

total of let's let's run the calculation

here this will be uh we're going to

divide this percentage by this uh

percentage here let's actually make this

a

percentage and there we go it's about

21% is about the weighted average here

given that China has a little bit of a

smaller percentage uh of trade as a

percentage of GDP we trade more with

Mexico and can Canada our larger trading

partners uh this reduces this by about

21% so $2.3 trillion reduced by uh

21% brings us down about $500 billion

this is about a $500 billion cost to GDP

now there could be upsides in the long

term more potential income or tax

revenue external Revenue Service for the

United States but if Donald Trump ends

up announcing this external Revenue

Service tomorrow it is going to be seen

as potential $500 billion hit to GDP so

you kind of have to look at this and go

oh but SoftBank says they're going to do

$500 billion into AI infrastructure

Investments with Oracle and otherwise

well basically that entire project which

is planned over 5 years gets killed in

the span of one year so that makes the

impact a little bit more noticeable in

addition to that you really have to

divide the 500 by about GDP and if we

divide

GDP uh or 500 into GDP it'll give you

about

2.1% okay why does that matter well

because our GDP growth rate is about 2%

so it's possible uh that $500

billion uh as as as a reduction to our

GDP could actually be enough assuming

all of that 500 billion is somehow a

loss right again we're collecting that

as as a revenue so we're assuming that

trade is reduced by at least that amount

but we're still receiving that as

Revenue it's possible though that that

trade could be offset substantially more

uh and could lead to a weaker economy

but the point is when we compare the

size of the tariffs that are potentially

being announced here to our GDP they

subtract about 2.1% to growth so let's

understand this a little bit differently

because I know that that is a little bit

complicated but just think about it this

way if it correlates directly that GDP

grows 2% and you just minus 2.1% no

surprise that the market is all of a

sudden selling off on the fear of these

terrorists now it's not it's not

devastating but it's definitely a hit

I'll show you that really quickly I

wouldn't be surprised if we get a

rebound but we actually broke out this

morning above my trading range here on

the q's which I sent out on the me Kevin

Alpha report we were sitting over the 10

5,000 line for a while here we've been

range bound since the election on bitco

coin uh and even Tesla was breaking out

above the 414 level and now it broke

down below it all after these tariffs

were announced so clearly the market is

starting to try to price in the GDP

impact of this but it is very very

difficult to do so let's try to simplify

it here I also want to be clear because

I know there was a little bit of

confusion two two quick things I want to

say on the alpha report uh and then I

want to talk about the GDP impact the

alpha reports that free report that is

still going on for the rest of this

month totally for free when I launched

it originally I said there are no plans

to monetize it and that we expect at

some point in the future we might but

it's free until at least uh the end of

November I push that to the end of

December I push that to the end of

January and now I push it to the end of

November or uh February so in other

words I've been providing it for free

for longer and you can still get 30 days

of it for free just going to be

kevin.com uh it's all the way at the

bottom uh but but I did notice that

there were a few comments from people

like what you said you were never going

to monetize it no I never said that in

fact we said it would be free for the

foreseeable future and we don't have any

plans at this point so I just want to be

clear about that it was never meant to

sort of be a rug pull or anything it's

actually something that takes a lot of

work every morning and something that's

supposed to be hey we're providing you

more value uh and at some point uh you

know whether we monetize it through an

app or the courses or whatever uh at

some point it'll get incorporated into

something else we didn't know at that

point what that is now it's just being

included in the courses so if you're

already a stocks and psych member or

trumponomics member it's free it's

totally included so I I don't know how

that got misconstrued by a very few

number of people but I thought I would

mention it uh just to clear clean that

up and you can go back and look at the

original videos at the end of November

to verify that

2.1% uh is sort of the weight on GDP

right that's the negative now the

positive uh I would say this is the max

max negative uh if all 500 Bill uh uh

you know disappears basically uh the

positive oh well I mean that's not

necessarily the max negative that's

that's the negative if it all disappears

but there could also be other aspects

here you know what happens if because of

the tariffs businesses can't operate

anymore in trade and you have

layoffs uh shock to

infrastructure uh shock to supply chains

and uh and hiring Etc well in this casee

you could actually see a greater actual

impact could be bigger so we can't

really say that 2.1% is the max

impact however there and it's actually

interesting Canada I just saw it this

morning at like 6:00 a.m. Canada was

running ads on CNBC about how great of a

trading partner we are and thank you

America for being a great trading

partner to Canada and Canada will always

be here for you your Northern buddy and

I thought it was like oh this is

interesting coming like it's almost like

trying to brainwash the population

before the Trump tariffs come but anyway

this is you know obviously Trump trying

to maintain his promise here the

positive obviously is that uh the US

would collect that 500 Bill uh in theory

uh unless of course

um you know you have this substantial

reduction in in counter like in in

actual trade because now you get counter

tariffs so downsides are counter tariff

balance uh Bank uh BK bankruptcy or

collapse of certain

businesses uh and then of course you

have the inflationary

impact uh inflationary risk I think

that's lower because I think companies

have less pricing power but

theoretically that money should go to

the US government Okay cool so now the

US government has $500 $500 billion what

do they do with that well if they

reinvest it into America then maybe you

can get some of that GDP impact back if

they use it to pay off the debt well

that's good but you don't necessarily

get that money back now if they give it

back in the form of hey we're doing

these tariffs and now we're going to

give tax breaks yes in theory in the

longer run we will be better off

hopefully usually tariffs create a dead

weight loss from an economic point of

view but the theory is if it goes to

lower

taxation great but that'll take one year

right so if the tariffs go into effect

as they said Feb 1 then you get the pain

now so this is one of the problems that

in the market that we're in right now

the pain immediacy or the immediacy of

the pain so

deportations tariffs uh job cuts and

layoffs those things cause economic pain

immediately that is that is q1 pain the

upside would actually probably not come

until after you pass up tax plan which

maybe it'll happen in Q2 and then it'll

be effective Q3 Q4 so the upside

probably if tariffs would be Q3 earliest

right because you have to collect

reinvest tax l so you do create a

potential q1 Q2 whole and so I think

that's what markets are reacting to now

ultimately do I think there's a chance

that a lot of this is still negotiation

and markets will digest this and be like

all right this isn't a big deal like

fine we'll have the tariffs it's going

to hurt manufacturing it's going to hurt

GM it's going to hurt uh you know Canada

Canadian manufacturers us manufacturers

in Canada GM Ford whatever I'm sure

their stocks aren't very happy right now

I'll look uh yeah Ford Ford did fall but

the Stock's only at $10 it did it did

rotate down though after the

announcement General Motors same thing

you got a little bit of rotation down

but they're not heavily down probably

because markets had already been

anticipating some of this was coming uh

but that said you can actually see it

directly here here was the report that

the tariffs won't go into effect or

maybe get delayed until March here is

the report that no no no they're

happening

tomorrow you can see how the news cycle

is is directly you can kind of see that

here too directly impacting trading

today so it's something to pay attention

to and uh we'll be incorporating this of

course as well um uh into our course

member live streams Trading alerts

starting on Monday get in before the

price goes up uh and then of course the

alpha report which again is still free

for the next month and you can get that

over at M kevin.com so with that said

thank you so very much for being here

there's a quick little update on what

just happened in the market and and some

of the impact of how big this actually

is remember you're basically taking that

whole soft Bank investment over 5 years

and taking it away in one year for the

potential hope that the tariffs are

going to help on the upside but then

also the risk that we get counter

tariffs and those counter tariffs could

literally undo everything that we're

collecting and more because usually from

from an economic point of view you're

not going to find an economist that

tells you tariffs are are are a growth

tool now of course they've been used

like that in the past but you're not

going to generally find an economist

that says that uh and then keep in mind

that there are externalities

bankruptcies layoffs counter tariffs

those things hurt before we see the

benefits so yes tariffs increase risk uh

but we'll see and with the market right

now that Trump has mostly been sort of

signaling or messaging regarding tariffs

and not actually willing to push the

Tariff

button you know this is uh this is a

little bit of a wakeup call now In

fairness he might not have the full plan

together yet kind of I feel like do

things a little last minute and they're

like this is the plan fine I mean they

end up getting a lot done right how what

the impacts of it will be though uh will

be studied for a while they will not

immediately be clear which increas

inrees uncertainty which I suspect will

increase volatility in markets you

should be seeing the Vick Spike well

yeah of course you are I mean

basic yeah Finance 101 thank you so much

for being here folks look I love you all

I'm going to keep trying to provide

value every single day and we'll see

youall soon thanks bye why not advertise

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feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin PA there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take