RED STOCKS & Elon Musk to Buy TikTok!?! | Meet Kevin Report 8 [Jan 13]

wow Elon Musk might buy a Tik Tok autol

loan delinquencies are rising

dramatically why did markets do so well

in Q4 though and could there be an

underlying warning in that some aners

specifically on that and Jamie diamonds

comments on bitcoin uh spoiler they're

not good but Micro strategy did just buy

the dip so we'll analyze when they

bought how much they paid for and what

their average cost is of Bitcoin right

now we'll also talk a little bit about

the California wildfires and not too

much we talk about Apple's sales decline

for iPhones and yeah an update on

Greenland uh you won't believe it but

there was actually an act just

introduced called the make Greenland

great again act all right let's get into

this so uh first on today's me Kevin

report news that makes you money Elon

Musk might be buying Tik Tok at least

this is talk that is circulating amongst

Chinese officials who are mulling that

if the app is truly officially banned

the Supreme Court upholds the Tik Tok

ban and the app has to be taken down

from App Stores Elon Musk might be a

candidate that they would be interested

in selling the app to now it's unclear

if this would be a competitive process

and companies like Google or meta or

Microsoft could end up competing to try

to get control of Tik Tok but a lot of

people see this as a potential Boon for

Elon Musk as he would then potentially

be able to collect more advertising

Revenue than he's able to collect right

now over at x a lot of people say that

premium subscriptions are useful for

actually D generating some income and

keeping the lights on but that

advertising revenue is still a lot

slower than what it used to be though

advertisers have started coming back

since as Donald Trump and Elon say

everybody is coming some people are

coming multiple times yeah anyway uh

some also say that xai could be a big

beneficiary of the Tik Tok data which is

what uh the United States courts and pro

and and you know lawmakers are afraid of

that China has control of too much of

our data see a lot of people say that

China the reason Tik Tok should be

banned uh is that uh China collects your

contact information your watch habits

what you're doing maybe even your

location uh and all of this is then

stored on Chinese servers which could

then be used by the Chinese government

potentially either to Market their stuff

to us or to somehow influence us or

maybe even uh convince us of uh certain

things that might be contrary to uh fact

or contrary to the opinions of our uh

government officials or whatever now

obviously the big counterargument to

that is hey it's free speech uh you know

who cares if if China wants to Pedal me

misinformation let me hear it and decide

what I believe is true uh other people

say that uh the information could just

be stolen like all your contact

information you're buying or click

cabbits you know what posts are you

interacting with basically a whole

profile on you could essentially just be

hacked by somebody else and if it's

hacked by somebody else on a Chinese

server then you lose all that data

whatever so far though not so much

delving into the reasons for the Tik Tok

ban just trying to remind you of that

right now there is talk via Bloomberg

that Chinese officials are mulling

selling the app to Elon Musk they say

that a lot of bite dance employees

actually have a positive impression of

Elon Musk some say that Tik Tok could be

worth as much as what Elon Musk paid for

X which would be around the low $40

billion Mark uh Ela musk obviously with

the latest rise in Tesla has plenty of

money to do that in fact if you look at

Tesla stock by the way it really rallied

into the close today you got like I mean

it was red 95% of the day and then going

into the close you had another 2% bump

plus potentially another two and a half%

bump in the after hours some people say

that could be due to this potential

for Elon to get even stronger with the

acquisition of Tik Tok because then not

only do you have a written text platform

but you also have a video platform which

is something elon's been struggling to

really get to catch on on the Tik Tok

platform so it could be something that

he very much desires uh for China this

could also be another inroad to Trump as

it would be seen as a good gesture and

negotiation leverage for you know the

head of Doge or the co-head of Doge uh

anyway this is very interesting and this

is pretty new news uh just out so it

just aligns with our me Kevin report

although today's me Kevin report is

coming out a little bit later hopefully

you enjoy this breaking news Okay so uh

getting close to Donald Trump obviously

matters and it's worth noting that

getting close to Donald Trump matters so

much that even Harvard is now threatened

by Donald Trump uh with you know

scrutiny over their endowments to the

point where they just hired the lobbying

lobbying firm that's linked to Donald

Trump's Chief of Staff to basically

Lobby the government under the Trump

Administration interesting that's how it

all works you got to pay people to stand

in the lobby and then you get

favors anyway uh the automotive Market

some interesting things here subprime

auto loan borrowers are starting to

struggle we obviously seen used car

values plummet over the last few years

but there uh has been a noticeable

uptake in the number of 30-day lates as

of November data just out uh Prime

delinquencies only Rose about three

basis points but we're up about 35 basis

points just in November on 30-day lates

now if you annualize that that means

30-day delinquencies are up at an annual

rate of about 4% for people who are

subprime uh and this is the first time

we've seen the level above 10 total

percent since January of 2024 so a lot

of people are concerned that this is a

trend suggesting that the it is becoming

even more difficult for those uh who

with with moderate to lower incomes just

to get by carvana by the way comes in at

the worst with a 13.3% delinquency rate

amongst those subprime and amongst Prime

loans we're also seeing an increase at

Carmax 4 GM and Ally but carax has the

worst with Prime delinquencies at about

3.23% as far as macro numbers uh some

are complaining about the potential

specifically UBS some are complaining

about the potential for more gradual or

slow onramps to tariffs uh this was

specifically UBS uh this is kind of

critical because if you think about it a

lot of people think that um these

tariffs could come in sort of a one wave

and then let's say the tariffs hit at

the end of January then we get a bump in

inflation some people think maybe in

March or uh you know April and then a

year later that bump in inflation is

gone but there is this potential risk

UBS is now citing about potential

gradual or slow onramps of of tariffs

which could then lead inflation to

stretch out over a longer period of time

just consistently seeping more inflation

into the economy those are just some

fears now and they sort of contribute to

the continued Donald Trump uncertainty

that markets have really been exhibiting

mostly here at since December 18th

that's when we started to see markets

get a little bit more fearful obviously

we we did have a very nice recovery in

the market going into the close today

but we're still at a level of 27 on the

CNN fear and greed index uh we've been

at extreme fear on the 125-day moving

average for the S&P 500 stock price

strength is at extreme fear stock price

breadth is at extreme fear put call

volume is at extreme fear the only thing

that's at Green is junk bond demand

which signals that people think hey you

know there's still a low risk that

companies are actually going to go B

bankrupt but markets are starting to

turn a little bit and obviously we've

seen some of the numbers start turning I

mean look at for example uh you know you

know some people really into small caps

they're down 11% from their Peak for

example those are often seen as a more

risk or highrisk asset right uh just

like Bitcoin down 12.5% almost align

there with iwm right Tesla's 15% off

peak it's counting him down to about

that 414 line critical line there at 414

and I sent out the lines that I'm paying

attention to every single day in the

meetkevin alpha report if you haven't

gotten that yet it's totally free just

go to meetkevin.com and scroll to the

bottom you should really sign up for

both The Daily Wealth and the alpha

report but totally free I send those uh

every day the market is open Daily

Wealth typically every single day

sometimes I miss a day or two but I i'

try my best to get that out every single

day Apple though down 9.5% from Peak

palent here down 22% just over the last

few weeks and Open Door seems like it's

plummeting to bankruptcy it just lost

its $1 billion market cap l

ouch uh obviously tougher environment to

be flipping homes but you know not not

my recommendation right now to flip

homes you can buy good deals but

flipping you generally want to do that

in a market that's rocketing for real

estate anyway uh New York fed inflation

survey indicates that market C inflation

expectations is barely moving this is uh

seen as less worrisome than uh some have

argued and uh insurance companies right

now are seen as a potential C sort of

stock selling pressure uh a lot of

people originally think that insurance

companies will go sell bonds because

that's usually what they do uh but

stocks have done so well over the last

few years that some are saying insurance

companies might be prone to selling

stocks as opposed to bonds mostly

because treasuries are yielding close to

5% they've lost a lot of value uh and

stocks are up a lot so sell the winner

is what some were saying and then keep

that 5% yield or sort of roll into more

of that 5% yield as you know between now

and when you actually have to start

making payouts companies uh and insurers

like chub and Progressive have already

dropped about four to 5% likely more in

market cap loss than the actual loss

that's expected for them uh but

obviously you're seeing the markets

react already because of the fires you

California is still on fire and we got

some of the craziest Santa Ana winds

right now it couldn't go flying today

because that we've got you know winds

dusting up to 30 40 m an hour and they

might even get worse over the next few

days which would be really bad bad for

that potential reignition concern for

fires we've talked about over the

weekend specifically yesterday for the

potential cause of the Palisade fire so

if you haven't seen that yet make sure

to watch yesterday's meet Kevin report

uh Jamie Diamond was interviewed on CBS

he says it's not a surprise that Donald

Trump won that people were angry says

he's not against crypto but Bitcoin has

no intrinsic value you should have the

right to use it like you have the right

to smoke but I don't think you should

smoke so he's kind of like yeah um not

interested in Bitcoin I think it's a

Ponzi is what he says he says sex

traffickers and ransomware companies use

it okay so kind of negative there anyway

uh that doesn't change the fact that

you've got uh micro strategy buying the

dip on bitcoin which we'll touch about

in uh touch on in just a moment Jamie

Diamond does go on to say some things

that I agree with such as a lot of

people especially those in that lower 25

percentile of income right now are going

home today to more crime more drugs than

ever before and they're dying 10 years

younger they're not getting the skill

that they need to survive in this

economy and that's why you've got this

growing gap between the rich and the

poor and that it's really becomeing on

governments to educate better by the way

I'm a big fan of that when I ran for

governor in California I ran on the

premise of future schools and really

renovating and sort of updating our

entire school systems getting rid of

this gridlock nonsense that you get with

with schools and and uh the lack of

progress in our education uh throughout

the entire country uh but specifically

California you know you're you you're

the largest state in the country you're

the fifth to sixth largest economy in

the world and uh you've got schools that

are in the bottom 20% of schools in the

state which is just pathetic uh anyway

uh going on a little bit on some of the

data uh there are some like UBS as well

who was talking about these rolling

tariffs being a problem they say that

usually when bond yields Peak up stocks

fall so far that hasn't happened just

yet but some people say this 10% sell

off we've already had is a dip

opportunity because of the bond market

maybe we do have PPI and CPI tomorrow as

Catalyst I'm sorry PPI tomorrow and then

CPI the next day usually PPI comes after

CPI so it's interesting that it's a

little out of order right now uh but um

pbii will be out tomorrow we're looking

for. three on the core up from that 0 2

prior and 04 on the non-core matched

with the prior so we'll see where that

comes in it is expected on a

year-over-year level to pop up from 3%

headline to

3.5% uh and not just that headline

number though but also core 3.8 versus

3.4 so some of those low inflation

numbers we've been used to are starting

to tick up again and that is leaving

well the bond market also nervous uh so

genen by the way says that uh there is

and this is potentially an underlying

risk to the economy sock genen says that

households and businesses have been

bringing forward demand to beat tariffs

and it's unclear if that's going to

continue in q1 and Q2 in fact you're

seeing this Rising level of companies

now saying hey we're demanding uh people

go back to work in office uh you uh uh

multiple companies whether it was JP

Morgan or Amazon or I think you even had

toy was it Toyota for their HR staff but

anyway I think they they just had an

announcement today but multiple

companies indicating hey yeah we need

you to come back some people say that ah

as that pull forward of demand drops off

people stop spending as much as they had

in Q4 businesses and people because you

know now we're ahead of tariffs

basically the holiday season is over all

the reasons to spend now going away hey

you know what happens in q1 well nobody

knows uh now what I think happens is

between now and next Monday you probably

want to consider if you're going to buy

an electric vehicle to do it because uh

one of the first executive orders Trump

might sign might be killing that EV tax

credit so could be a little sales push

for Tesla there but anyway my take on

this is that markets you I don't really

know obviously exactly what's going to

happen duh but my take on this is that

markets are in what I call the

assessment phase I was talking to course

members about this this morning in the

course member live as we were reviewing

some of the early market trading and uh

really the way you look at this is we

started with bullish hope for Trump we

moved on to Euphoria for Donald Trump's

win now we're at the assessment phase

which is okay what is the evidence for

q1 going to tell us a continuation of

really strong jobs from Q4 and start

strong spending or slower than expected

Macy's for example Cuts their sales uh

forecast uh Apple cut its sales uh well

I mean data coming in for the iPhone

indicates that iPhone sales are down 5%

globally year-over-year which is a

pretty substantial decline especially

since the entire smartphone industry

grew 2.4% a lot of people say that's

because Apple's catching up with AI and

that they're really behind uh and

smaller companies like zomi and Vivo uh

zomi from China obviously are are really

seeing a a pick up uh in in sales and so

maybe there's more competition more

Innovation happening elsewhere Mark Zuck

for example slammed Apple for a lack of

innovation but others say Hey you know

this is just a buy the dip opportunity

take all of that uncertainty and you

know your assessment phase or whatever

you want to call it Kevin buy the dip

opportunity paler on sale 22% off of

Peaks hey why not all right very well

we'll see when what ends up happening

and obviously I'll be reporting on it

every single day now micro strategy

actually ends up slamming bonds which is

funny because they basically fund the

whole company out of convertible bonds

but anyway he says that bonds like

treasury bonds are toxic mostly because

of fiscal debt right uh that's why he's

making a contrast between his bonds and

and the government bonds but anyway he

says buy Bitcoin instead why because

you'll get rich do the right thing for

your family your country your investors

and adopt Bitcoin okay I mean we already

know Michael sailor is Allin Bitcoin

Maxi super bullet

but Micro strategy did actually put

their money where their mouth is between

January 6th j6 and January 12th

yesterday uh they did buy $243 million

of Bitcoin which they announced today in

a filing uh This was done at an average

price of $95,900 they now hold 450,000

Bitcoin with an average price of

62691 worth about $ 42.3 billion and

they've got a market cap at micro

strategy of about 80 billion so you're

still selling for about two times which

which is fine you know that's actually

usually pretty typical to see as sort of

a 2X book valuation so that doesn't

sound unreasonable obviously more the

risk is you know what happens if for

whatever reason Bitcoin whatever fell

below their average price or Worse their

average cost of debt as that becomes uh

you know comes do and payable that would

be the bigger concern but that also may

never happen may not be a concern Robin

Hood's going to pay $45 million in

penalties to the SEC for failing to

report suspicious activities on time and

not preserving electronic communications

regulation around Finance is really

really hard so usually companies look at

this and go whatever man cost to doing

business and honestly I doubt

Hood really cares so they're probably

more happy that this is over than

anything else but it's a $35 billion

company okay so uh what's $45

million divided by 35 1 two 3 one two 3

billion dollars yeah this is like

.001 of a punishment so let's say you

have

$100,000 this punishment to make it

equivalent to you would be the example

of you having $100,000 net worth I'm

getting fin

$128 that's like that's less than a

speeding ticket man not that I know I've

never gotten a speeding ticket honestly

I don't even speed anymore these days

like I feel like I've gotten old I can't

speed anymore it's not that I can't I

mean I can I just don't I have a little

radar detector and it the suction cup

came off when they did the tinting on my

car well they took it off didn't come

off they took it off uh and uh and I

never reinstalled it cuz I'm kind of

like I don't care anymore anyway that's

that's more on me and not about micro

and Robin Hood so let's just keep going

with this so

California uh there's the latest on

California is really just about home

design and how people are complaining uh

about how 1950s and Spanish style

construction really have a lot of roof

vents or events that can allow uh

ultimately you know Embers to come in

and you have to think about it when when

Embers come into a roof it's really bad

when you have a comp shingle roof and a

bunch of vents because the inside of

your attic is literally like a tinder

box that is some like the most dry Kil

heated wood that you just heat up and

dry out all year long you or since the

property is really built it is the most

delicious for a fire to just chew up so

um yeah there there'll definitely be

some changes in terms of uh development

standards for Real Estate you know some

people were asking me this morning

they're like hey you know is development

going to balloon and and should we buy

construction companies because of the

fires okay well let's talk about that

one

sec you really have to look at this on a

nationwide basis obviously rents are

skyrocketing and Los Angeles and

Contracting prices are going to

Skyrocket in California in about a year

or two architectural prices will start

skyrocketing now uh and and rents are

blowing up because you know a lot of

wealthy people lost their homes and

they're like please just give me a place

to live for the next two years and and

so they're willing to pay double what

certain rents are listed for so yeah

you're going to see some rental

inflation which isn't great but uh when

it when it comes to uh a nationwide will

sort of building stocks or whatever go

up maybe but it depends on what the

whole economy does just because you want

to rebuild 20,000 homes in California

doesn't really put a dent into what the

country Builds on an annual basis we

usually build around one and a half

million homes so if you think about that

that's like you know what a little more

than 1% of your housing stock in in

California uh that that is being rebuilt

because of the fires so it shouldn't

make much of a dent on a national

Nationwide lever level level excuse me

uh especially if there's a nationwide

decline it which just sort of help

soften that decline a little bit uh in

in new construction in terms of politics

you've got JD Vance saying protesters

should not be pardoned Johnson says that

there should be conditions attached to

fire aid for California due to the gross

that negligence of leaders in California

and a lot of people were talking about

the fedman and Trump Alliance people

saying that uh it's it's a really

interesting sign that Donald Trump says

Federman is not a Republican or a

Democrat he's just a common sense person

people think that Federman could

actually vote towards some trumpian

policies uh and and sort of give him

more strength and avoid some Republican

gridlock that he could face when

fighting some potential hardliners in

Congress some of those hardliners might

come out when the salt tax benefits come

out and of the debate around these if

the 2017 tax cuts expire though it's

worth noting that the soul tax

deductions the state and local tax

deductions which basically let you say

on your federal tax return hey look I

paid all this money in state taxes can I

have a write off for that that's limited

to like $10,000 now some people want it

to double to $20,000 but if that expires

the 2017 tax gets expire you'll be able

to write off unlimited amounts again so

a lot of people were like oh even

doubling it is better than it going to

unlimited uh but obviously yes salt tax

benefits benefit uh more blue States

like New York and California than other

states though it's worth noting that

states contributing to the federal

income uh like the income of the US

government through income taxes uh some

of the highest contributors are

California New Jersey New York compared

to some states like you know Mississippi

or New Mexico who are Mississippi Tak

a buck 19 or I'm sorry Mississippi pays

into the system a buck 19 for every

dollar they take New Mexico only pays in

like 88 cents for every dollar of

Federal Aid that they take Florida pays

in $578 or sorry

$578 for every dollar they receive

Jersey pays in

$628 for every $1 they receive

California pays in $53 for every dollar

they received so you know there's

there's also that sort of debate in

terms of like donor States uh versus

recipient States but uh you know it's

kind of interesting to pay attention to

to see this I I honestly I imagine that

as part of a larger tax package yeah

you'll get some more benefits for the

salt taxes but you'll also get an

expansion of these 2017 tax cuts and

maybe even corporate tax cuts in there

which that would be really awesome

especially for the stock market we'll

see uh when it comes to Greenland prime

minister of Greenland says they're

seeking opportunities to quote

coordinate with Trump uh and a

congressman from tenee actually just

introduced a two- paged resolution

saying let's make Greenland great again

which is just a resolution which is

basically meaningless but it uh it it

authorizes not that Trump really needs

the authorization would authorize Donald

Trump to start

negotiating with

Denmark okay very interesting uh so um a

little note on uh sort of like a daily

wealth note sometimes since I'm a big

fan of Chaos Theory uh which is

basically when you create chaos you are

able to take control of that

chaos sometimes it is possible to take

that chaos a little bit too far and then

you truly have chaos uh that I believe

is what has happened in my studio I am

upgrading the studio to uh be able to

you know go 4K live streams 4K videos

and all this stuff most because somebody

left a comment saying I was Antiquated

for not doing 4K and and it just it sent

me off a cliff so anyway um but I never

read the

comments uh but anyway that um yeah that

was a little poopy doopy and so uh I've

I it's going to take me let's just put

it this way a lot longer than I expected

to uh put this all together uh hence the

the mess here but I'm working on it so

uh it's getting there and uh yeah there

some new equipment problems and

otherwise the good news is it really

gives you more opportunity to optimize

so when you do chaos theory and even if

that chaos turns into like hell Theory

you have you just give yourself the time

get through it do it all the way it

should be done improve it and I'm

telling you the things that I'm going

through are going to make me even more

efficient than I already am I mean

there's so many little in inefficiencies

that I was Finding from you know going

from four different computers and and

five different monitors for those

computers to one monitor that has all of

them built in which is really incredible

uh to a faster switching protocols to uh

better live streaming opportunities with

overlays or comments or whatever or

shortcuts some really cool things we're

setting up so I have to do a full

breakdown video on all that when done uh

and uh as far as the dad joke of the day

this was just it's not funny it's just

not funny but I'm going to do it anyway

uh what sound does a witch's car

make broom broom why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see our go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take