Stock Futures DROP | Omicron Crisis

hey everyone kevin here it is the

evening of sunday december 17th and dao

and indice futures are turning red as

you can see dao future's down two thirds

of a percent s p 500 future is down

point eight four percent nasdaq

technology is down one percent and small

caps down one point eight eight percent

with the volatility index to about 24

and a half we've seen some of these

numbers come in even worse over the last

hour or so here and folks we got to talk

about

why the stock market is likely to be red

tomorrow which is unfortunate just as we

thought we were over catalyst but we got

to talk about what's going on a lot of

this has to do with the insanity of

omicron so we're gonna be talking about

some omicron insanity here and some of

the numbers that are creating a whole

lot of fear uncertainty and doubt we've

also got some other

political issues that have popped up

let's get right into it first we have

good news out of south africa while

deaths uh and hospitalizations continue

to inflict down we have been worried

about the potential for cases to

continue to rise in south africa and

potentially eventually lead to omicron

cases leading to well more deaths and

hospitalizations

but we have started to see an inflection

down in cases in south africa which you

can see that inflection rotating down

right here uh december 19th we're

getting that rotation down which is very

very good uh for uh what we're seeing in

the omicron spread so then why are a

markets fearful well markets are fearful

because it is believed that in the

united kingdom in the united states

omicron could end up being substantially

more severe now there are a lot of

twitter warriors and comment warriors

saying ah don't worry we're going to get

to hurt immunity by now a lot of people

have already had uh

kovid so they'll have some form of

protection and this is just

unfortunately highly false having covid

according to imperial college and their

study from just the end of last week

having coveted only offers a and or

having had coveted prior illness only

offers a 19 protection against omicron

unfortunately though we don't have much

better information for the boosters and

vaccines via reuters as of december 12th

boosters give us about 70 to 75

protection against symptomatic disease

but you're still likely to test positive

with a breakthrough case uh fortunately

though the uh

well the likelihood of having

certainly severe disease is

substantially lower and the likelihood

of having symptoms at all is

substantially lower with vaccines and uh

or a booster

now uh what the fear that's being spread

right now though the fear uncertainty

and doubt that's being spread is very

simply exponential extrapolation the

reason for this is we believe that the

omicron variant is spreading somewhere

around four to six times as much as

delta is and if you take a doubling raid

of omicron of every three days omicron

doubles and a doubling rate of every 14

days at its peak delta doubles and this

is just to the point of peak because at

some point viruses hit a peak they hit a

ceiling and then we rotate down right

and so if we say both delta and omicron

were at the beginning of a race and both

of them started with 50 000 cases and

then we let them rage for 45 days what

would that potentially look like on an

exponential basis right well if we jump

on over here we can see exactly this

this is just a simple spreadsheet

modeling that if on day zero we're at

fifty thousand cases for omicron fifty

thousand for delta by day three we'd be

doubled for omicron but we won't be

doubled yet for delta until roughly day

14. now this is where it gets scary if

you extrapolate this for 45 days just 45

days now what you would be left with

is look at this number it's insane okay

now i know these numbers are insane but

this is this is what the market is

reacting to i want to bring you facts

and i understand that the things that

could appear to be fear uncertainty and

doubt are also potentially factual right

there's a difference between fake news

and fud so people say fud it's like

right but that doesn't mean it's not

true right yes this can be fun but it

could be true fun yeah models suggest

that we could be over a billion cases of

omicron now not all of those may end up

being diagnosed but the point is we

could quickly get to the point of having

the vast majority of the world maybe not

the vast majority but a substantial

portion of the world of seven billion

people infected by omicron the delta

variant in that same 45 days would be at

less than 550 000 cases this shows you

how extremely different the spread is

now sure omicron is being right now

likened to a cold or relatively mild or

a flu right

the difference though is if we take the

death rate of omicron and it's and

assume it's just one-tenth of the death

rate of delta just one-tenth the death

rate

look at how different the deaths are

in an unmitigated spread you could

potentially get to 1.3 billion deaths in

omicron compared to just

3594 and delta this is unmitigated it's

just to show you that exponential math

is really really bad and this is in my

opinion whether this happens or not this

is what markets are going to potentially

start trying to price in they're going

to start pricing in holy moly if

everybody's going to get on me we're

going to have a lot of people dying

because it spreads way faster than

what we see in in basically anything

else that we've seen in terms of covet

but likely even spreads faster than the

flu spreads faster than the cold it's

just ridiculously transmissible

we could see our hospital system get

overburdened

even though it's one-tenth as

uh

severe

now with that said the markets are

obviously turning red and there are

now more fears that potentially it's

time to exit the market to the point

where bloomberg has now suggested that

korean south korean day traders are now

net sellers for the first time since

2019 and this has left our futures red

on top of this we have a senator joe

manchin suggesting that quote i can't

get there quote this is a no on the

buildback better plan in other words joe

manchin is now going for a no vote at

the same time as we have this

unmitigated spread on omicron leading to

a lot of confusion in markets that were

at least to some degree pricing in the

potential that the buildback better plan

would get passed that there would be an

extension of the child tax credit that

there would be uh paid leave that there

would be an ev credit boost so we could

see this pain

uh in the stock market actually

exacerbate because certain industries

that we're expecting stimulative uh well

essentially more stimulus coming to uh

shoppers or consumers they're not going

to see that stimulus anymore the child

tax credit is one of the biggest

stimulus checks you can ask for i mean

it's three thousand dollars per child

under eighteen if you have a child under

six it's thirty six hundred dollars

right so this not passing for another

year is is almost like robbing that

stimulus and so this could be another

reason why we're seeing markets red but

folks let's look at a little bit more of

the science behind what's going on and

what what the latest information is

regarding omicron first pfizer believes

that covet will end up becoming endemic

by as soon as 2024 this means that covid

will potentially become as regular as

the flu and as regular as

essentially as needing to get a

potentially bi-annual flu shot or not up

to you right but that we might

transition to this endemic state as soon

as 2024 where basically we're just

always going to be living with covet now

hopefully it is a mild

form of covet like omicron knock on wood

the early research shows that omicron is

much more mild and this is very very

good this is important and it could

usher in the end of the pandemic as

researchers at harvard have already let

us know which is good but again an

unmitigated spread of omicron could lead

to a lot of fear uncertainty and doubt

in the short term especially as we're

still seeing a surge of delta cases in

the north and northeast states in the

united states as well as now coming down

the east coast and in other places in

the united states we're still seeing a

delta surge

now good news bad news it's estimated

right now that

omicron is already becoming dominant in

the united states yet we're not even

realizing it yet that there could be so

much omicron already spreading that

people are sick but they're not getting

tested because they're not severely sick

but they already have omicron they just

are shaking off a cold basically and

that's because if you look at wastewater

samples collected in south florida i

know that sounds gross and so like wait

a minute is that an invasion of privacy

is that that are you taking samples my

stuff in the toilet it's weird right

but

wastewater sampled in orlando county

which is where disney world is

show that omicron is already dominant in

florida

so this is leading to a lot of fear that

we could actually end up having a worse

surge in america just like what we're

seeing in the united kingdom than what

south africa is experiencing

now the united kingdom right now is

estimating so far that 80 percent of

cases as of friday are omicron cases

they are refusing to rule out more

restrictions prior to

the uh to the to the christmas holiday

they do have about 85 individuals in the

hospital right now with omicron modeling

expects that we could reach a peak of

about 3 000 hospitalizations per day in

england they did have just over 4 000

hospitalizations per day with delta now

right now experts in the united kingdom

are expecting that more than half of the

admissions going into united kingdom

hospitals are coming in for other

reasons but because every patient ends

up getting tested for covet they're

finding oh you're coming in for this

surgery or you're coming in for a

pregnancy and delivery you're coming in

for whatever but you also have covert

boom now you're a covet statistic right

it's obviously standard for people to

get tested when they go to hospital now

as of thursday we are expecting that

seven people have died with omicron uh

in the united kingdom now note this is

not necessarily from omicron and we're

still trying to figure out the death

statistics and it's that uncertainty

that is creating uncertainty in the

markets

now the scientific advisory group for

emergencies sage believes that it is

certain that hundreds of thousands of

people are being infected with this

variant but they're just not being

picked up in statistics so omicron may

already be much more pervasive than we

think it actually is based on statistics

we also had a pretty powerful study come

out of hong kong which we already

touched on a couple days ago but i want

to go a little bit more deep into some

of this information

the omicron variant modeled

in this hong kong study

came well essentially the researchers

came to the conclusion that

omicron not only

spreads faster than delta but it also

replicates much faster than delta and

the reason for that is

omicron seems to replicate substantially

in the lung passages the bronchus the

air passages that lead to your lungs and

at 24 hours after infection this study

indicated that the omicron variant quote

replicated around 70 times higher than

the delta variant and the original

variant however it replicated less

efficiently 10 times less efficiently in

human lung tissues which is where the

original virus replicated and this

suggests a difference of severity it's

kind of like when you believe you have

uh something like dr john campbell put

it well he refers to the potential of

this maybe coming across as a cough as

if you have bronchitis versus a cough

where you're potentially spitting up

blood from having a pneumonia so it's

almost like having a deep chest cold

versus having kind of a surficial cold

now that is good because it's it's at

least indicative of a more mild form of

disease but

because it's now in your air passages

it's also much easier for you to spread

omicron now because after 24 hours you

already see the 70x replication of

omicron

it's really fast for you to go from

okay i got exposed to omicron and the

next day you wake up and that next

afternoon so you got in the afternoon

before you're already spewing on me

everywhere it's crazy and that's what's

leading to faster infections the paper

went on to say it's not just about your

body and about where this virus replica

replicates though but it's also on to

how your individual body responds if you

end up with a cytokine storm this is

kind of an overactive immune system

response you could have a severe case of

omicron and that's why this study went

on to say that omicron is very dangerous

because quote even though the disease

and death through the virus may be less

pathogenic

taken together the overall threat from

omicron is likely to be very significant

and this is again where we can go look

at that quick math that we threw

together on a spreadsheet and whether or

not it's fun it's true or that's false

doesn't matter

markets are reacting to this i mean just

in the time of filming this i've seen

the small caps drop another 0.1

now the small cap index

indicating which which includes a lot of

our recovery and travel stocks

indicating a negative two percent open

now

what's also worth noting

is that in new south wales which is uh

in australia we expect or we're finding

the premier is telling us

that

261 individuals are hospitalized

believed to be with omicron that's

expected to be the current statistic in

new south wales

but notes that of these only 33 are in

the intensive care unit 26 of those were

unvaccinated so another reiteration that

you don't necessarily know how your body

is going to respond for the vast

majority of people we expect it to be

mild but there are going to be

individuals who will potentially end up

in the icu and in intensive care because

of omicron even though we're seeing

ventilator and oxygen use plummet for

the vast majority of people it's that

smaller percentage that could still get

hit hard and now we're going to expect

to be exposing a whole lot of more

individuals

now in the united states we're seeing

the uh seven day rate of

hospitalizations start ticking up and

this is where we have to be careful

always comparing to south africa we have

different weather right now than we do

well in north america than we do in uh

south africa for example in a lot of

different territories or states i should

say in the united states we've got snow

very cold climates cold brings people

together around war

perfect place to spread disease in south

africa you've got moderate temperatures

somewhere between 60 and 70. so uh it's

it's uh worth worth noting that it's

also worth noting that the coldest month

in south africa is actually june which

is kind of the opposite of most of the

united states and europe right a

different uh different part of the world

but anyway

uh in new york you've got the mayor of

new york calling on federal help because

new york city cases have tripled the

rate of cases is exploding in the united

kingdom as well we went from a seven-day

average of around 55 000 to all of a

sudden 86 000 cases and now over

124 000 cases in one day that is the

latest case count that we have the

easiest way by the way for you to pull

up the uh case counts for the united

kingdom the earliest is actually by

going to the zoe coped study so check

that out zoe zoe join zoe.com

covet.joinzow.com

there you go

uh zo or zoe i don't know there's no why

maybe i'm messing it up i've been

calling it

zoe but it's spelled

zoe like joe

anyway

uh sydney is uh the sydney airport in

australia by the way is reporting and

this we're seeing these same kind of

fears in america that international

travel has fallen by 86 in the first two

weeks of december compared to

2019. that's insane uh 86 declined and

so these are the kind of fears that we

think might come to america in the

american stock market where you're going

to see potentially a big old recovery

sell-off that is airlines restaurants

hotels selling off substantially

especially as this case count goes

parabolic uh and just straight up

exponential and at the same time

is the fact that we still have a delta

surge in america which is going to lead

hospitalizations and deaths to go up at

the same time so we're going to reach to

this future critical point this critical

point where you're at peak omicron cases

at the same time as peak deaths and peak

hospitalizations and not all of those

deaths and hospitalizations will

necessarily be omicron they'll just be

left over from delta but that'll be just

sort of like all right now that you're

already weak and dealing with all these

hospitalizations and deaths let's give

you a massive surge of army

anyway

omicron uh worth noting that uh

continuing on this worth noting that the

royal caribbean ship the symphony of the

seas which honestly i believe that's the

biggest ship they have but anyway this

symphony of the shield it's certainly

one of the largest they have the

symphony of the seas had 6091 passengers

on it and they just had a covet outbreak

48 passengers and crew tested positive

98 of the individuals on the cruise ship

were vaccinated and individuals are

reporting that they either have mild

symptoms or are asymptomatic uh that two

percent could be children under five

remember that uh right now studies are

showing that uh two shots for children

under five is not enough and right now

trials are indicating we might have to

go as high as three shots for children

r5 to actually promote that immune

response in children to help them in the

event parents do want to get their

children vaccinated

which i know there are a lot who do and

a lot who don't

anyway uh israel is planning a new

restrictions the nba has postponed five

games france is going to pay its

healthcare workers a double time and the

national institute's uh institute of

health says that we are in for a world

of trouble and found she says that we do

not foresee any kind of lockdowns but we

do foresee a lot of stress coming to our

health care system furthermore jp morgan

tells us the following about the market

saying that there is a paradox that on

average u.s stocks are down 28 from

highs and yet median stocks uh and

median stocks are down uh 21 but at the

same time the market referring to the

russell 3000 is up 22 for the year such

a divergence is unknown to us as jp

morgan and indicates a historically

unprecedented overshoot in selling

smaller more volatile potentially higher

shorted securities in the last four

weeks and the narrative for the sell-off

has of course been omicron

and the fed

we are seeing a lot of de-risking and

short selling and jp morgan is actually

hinting that right now

is potentially a time to be bullish

rather than bearish setting up those

bets buying into some of this pain

especially when you look at how many

stocks are heavily heavily shorted

here's just an example of some of the

most uh heavily shorted stocks and this

is why you always want to watch the end

of the video so you get the treats which

of course if you ever want treats as

well check out my programs on building

your wealth link down below where i

share my ideas with you early uh but

anyway take a look at some of these uh

heavily shortage stocks here a blink

charging 35 lemonade over 34

tattooed chef beyond meat over 33 go go

corsair gaming arcimoto big five robot

shift technologies fisker i mean bed

bath and beyond you name it all these

over 20 percent here and more i'll um

uh we'll we'll do a deeper dive on some

of these short stocks but boy oh boy uh

interesting perspective here from

jpmorgan and personally i kind of agree

with them i think hey take advantage of

some of the buying because i think some

of the selling is a little bit overblown

right now uh over a lot of um

fud fear uncertainty in doubt anyway

these are my thoughts on what the heck

is happening in our market thank you so

much for watching check out those

programs and use that coupon code before

the end of christmas day we do have a

coupon code expiring for the programs on

building your wealth thanks so much and

we'll see you next time goodbye everyone