The Coming Bear Crash | 85% Shocker

folks Bloomberg is back at it again

Bloomberg's Lou Wang just posted a

pretty fascinating piece on how

potentially

the market rally that we're seeing is

actually being propped up by none other

than the Bears listen to this Lou Wang

suggests that Skeptics and bears are

really what's keeping this stock market

rally going

they say quote rarely has the consensus

been more uniformly bearish than it is

now in fact investors are sitting with

the lowest allocation to United States

stocks in almost two decades listen to

that two decades we are at the lowest

allocation to U.S stocks into decades

I'll say it again decades and U.S

investors have held on to cash since the

longest stretch since the.com crash

which also happened to have been about

two decades ago why well obviously why

not the banking system is stressed we

have high yields on treasuries and high

yields on savings deposits we have

recessionary warnings all over the place

suggesting that the depth of the

recession via the inverted yield curve

is still substantially ahead of us and

those of us who study the inverted yield

curve know that the bond market is

giving us a flashing red warning sign

that it is not the inverting of the

yield curve that is painful but it is

indeed the re-stepening that will lead

to an earnings recession and crash us

all and leave us all buried into a

dungeon

but when everyone is leaning one way

it's not a surprise that the market is

leaning the other way the S P 500 a year

to date is up seven percent some

actively managed ETFs that won't be

mentioned are up 30 to 40 percent near

to date the NASDAQ is up 23 year to date

Goldman Sachs literally wrote in an

investment piece that there are frankly

quote zero Bulls out there right now and

that 85 percent of respondents to their

survey 85 were either bearish or neutral

and to those folks I have nothing to say

other than make sure to get life

insurance in as little as five minutes

you darn bears and yes I am paid to say

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and you'll get the latest best price

guarantee going forward

now continuing on we must talk about

Bank of America's money manager survey

Bank of America's money manager survey

sees the allocation to United States

stocks

at an 18-year low listen to this Goldman

Sachs sees zero Bulls out there money

manager surveys at Bank of America 18

year low we have the longest stretch of

holding cash since the.com era and we

are now deemed uniformly bearish

and maybe the Bears are right of course

I'll be responding to this but consider

this of the previous 14 bear markets

there have only been two times that the

S P 500 has had back-to-back quarterly

gains we just had our first quarter gain

of seven percent that means we have a 2

in 14 chance according to history of

actually ending this quarter green for

the S P 500 and the only times we've had

two back-to-back S P 500 quarterly gains

in a bear Market were in 1981 and 1938.

the only other explanation might be that

maybe the bear Market is over and we're

in an official new bull market after all

the NASDAQ climbing 20 since the

beginning of the year has officially

entered the NASDAQ into a new bull

market

however maybe the Bears are more right

that the earnings recession and the

bottom of the market is still ahead of

us after all the start of a recession is

typically when stocks bottom and

recessions generally don't don't happen

until the yields curve re-inverts that

is it goes to uninverted also we

typically don't see the bottom of a

stock market until about six months

before earnings bottom out and usually

when the Federal Reserve pivots it's

actually a sign that the market has more

pain ahead of us now of course I have

countered the pivot argument many a time

before you could just type into YouTube

meet Kevin fed pivot and you'll find at

least four different videos explaining

why this fed pivot will be different but

I have a different explanation today to

try to help educate some of these bears

but there's still more bearish

information the moral research just came

out today and suggested that this is the

first time we have had a contraction in

the M2 money supply falling 2.4 year

over year since 1961. I'm sorry since

1960 and it potentially suggests that we

have a lot more pain ahead of us the the

actual true effects of quantitative

tightening are still to come

so the Bears are arguing that the Bears

are arguing excuse me that the economy

is running on fumes well I have a

response to this I have a drawing and of

course nothing could be more interesting

than a drawing from me Kevin so let's

pull up the drawing from meet Kevin by

clicking a few quick buttons here I

click that button I click that button oh

that's juicy look at that so thanks

again to stream yard by the way now

remember if you go to metkeven.com

stream yard you'll be able to use this

software as well you also get a free

trial so you'll save some money with it

which is pretty cool in fact right now

as I was saying that I actually uploaded

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yard Isn't that cool I just flip between

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in fact we actually made quite a few of

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this this is actually really cool I kind

of really enjoy this anyway okay let's

look at my drawing so going to my

drawing now so uh this folks look at

this uh okay so this is what I wrote is

a normal crash you ready for this I'm on

my iPhone right there we go okay so a

normal crash looks like this first the

Bubble pops this right here we'll call

it the GDP line so the bubble pops

prices quickly go down then the economy

enters or starts signaling a

recessionary environment and usually

when the economy starts suggesting a

recession the Federal Reserve begins to

cut rates so think about that the

Federal Reserve actually begins to cut

rates

as the economy is starting to show signs

of entering into a recession

then markets continue to fall and then

the recession actually begins

and then the earnings bottom generally

occurs about six months after the bottom

of the stock market but we're already in

a recession and usually in a recession

is where the market bottoms this folks

is a historically normal crash again

bubble pops we start seeing recessionary

signs the Federal Reserve panics and

cuts rates

the market Falls more we hit bottom

which is about six months before the

earnings bottom and then we slowly get

lead out of the recession generally by

growth stocks

okay so now what is this time and keep

in mind the most dangerous words today

are this time is different right and

that is the most dangerous thing you

could say in a recession

but I'm going to show you the potential

this time is different chart this is my

opinion I drew this I think it is a

consolidation of all of the research

that I do

so what do we have up here November of

2021 what do you have you have

well bubble pops right and the stock

market ends up falling at three times

the speed that we fell in 20 in 2000 so

in other words this stock market crashed

three times as fast as the 2 000 stock

market crash that's pretty incredible

that is a very rapid fall

and so then we had this sort of w shaped

bottom around the same time that we

actually had a technical recession we

were technically in a recession when the

market first bottomed in Q3 Q2 Q3 uh

July to October was our first stock

market bottom we had another bottom in

many stocks in December thanks to tax

loss harvesting

then we had rebuying in January a lot of

rebuying in January because well

obviously the people who tax loss

harvested wanted to rebuy because of

well maybe fomo or what have you then we

had fear in February that January was

too strong so we traded relatively

sideways in January in February rather

but now we're starting to get data that

suggests maybe inflation is actually

going away the February pce data was

actually phenomenal now of course we're

going to be getting our CPI data here on

April 12th which is when the next coupon

code will be expiring and the prices

will go up again for the programs on

building your wealth and you get that

price guarantee but take a look at this

on the right over here

I believe that the Federal Reserve will

actually not cut

because of a recession or otherwise I

actually think the Federal Reserve

cutting has absolutely nothing to do

with whether or not we enter a recession

we could have been in the recession here

in 2022 as a technical recession or we

could potentially enter a recession over

in this blue area on the right so the

blue areas here are in my opinion where

we could be in a recession either here

or here but notice the Federal Reserve

does not actually cut Upon Us entering a

recession the Federal Reserve only ends

up cutting when they are convinced that

they have conquered inflation and upon

being convinced that they have conquered

inflation I believe the Nike Swoosh

takes hold the market moons why because

inflation is what's causing The Strife

we face today there's nothing nothing

other than inflation that is causing The

Strife we have today yes is it possible

that we over tighten sure but as long as

inflation goes away way I believe the

fear of this crisis goes away that's my

tank we'll see but it is my belief and I

think it's the belief that could be

correct here I'm putting my money where

my mouth is here so even though the

Bears have their arguments I actually

think this Bloomberg piece is very

incredible when you have the Bloomberg

author saying look everybody's bearish

right now Goldman Sachs remember says

zero Bulls out there apparently they're

not watching me Kevin maybe they should

subscribe thank you for watching then

you've got uh you know a Bank of America

suggesting that the allocation to U.S

stocks is an 18-year low I mean it's no

surprise that we could have a nice slow

and steady recovery out of this mess as

long as inflation keeps trending down

the what destroys my thesis completely

is a Resurgence of inflation if

inflation resurges

we're screwed

but so far that's not happening so knock

on wood literally doing that right now

knock on wood and I appreciate you

watching this segment on the bear

Stranglehold of recession yeah I mean

Jerome Powell acknowledging the ghost of

Arthur burns the mistake of cutting too

early is exactly why he will not cut

until rates are

convinced until inflation is

convincingly down that reiterates my

point

right