Tesla is 35 Days from a Massive Explosion.

there are no shortages of negative

catalysts for Tesla I will be reviewing

those negative catalysts towards the end

of this video but first i'm going to

introduce something to you that could

actually be mind-blowing and I'm not

here to fluff or pump the pricing power

good old PP of a Tesla I'm just here to

provide you what could be a very

realistic future for Tesla relative to

the competition look we've all heard

about these rumors about production Cuts

in the automotive industry and the fact

is it's true the automotive industry is

likely to reduce production in 2023 as

we go into a recessionary environment

now this is actually very very common

first of all we've already seen Toyota

reduce production in December we also

have Toyota suspending production at two

very large plants in Japan for 16 days

throughout January citing shortages and

a covid but let's be real it's probably

because of man drop off even Bentley is

reducing their production targets for

2023 as Chinese new orders slow and they

shelve their IPO plans the fact is that

North American vehicle production for

new vehicles is expected to be less than

the 18 million vehicle production cycle

Peak that we ordinarily hit before the

crazy times we've been going through of

shortages and that's because

manufacturers are likely to try to

survive rather than to increase their e

v efforts now that I really want you to

think about what I just said if

manufacturers try to focus on Surviving

rather than focusing on EV what does

that potentially mean well consider the

following price and margin become very

very important during a recession and

what does a company like Ford not have

with their lightning 150 pickup truck or

their Mach e

price and margin they don't have that

why because their gross profit on these

vehicles is negative now that's really

scary but it makes sense why right now

Ford is only producing sixty thousand

machines and thirty thousand F-150s just

one fifth that's just 20 percent of

their 2023 targets because they're money

losing money pits money losing money

bits they lose a lot of money okay now a

lot of folks say but Kevin isn't the EV

credit likely to sway more automakers

into the EV market after all it's 7 500

bucks to the consumer and it's rumored

that maybe manufacturers who make EVS

could take a lot of that benefit and the

consumer just basically pays a higher

price the manufacturer takes a lot of

that benefit

potentially but the EV credit is only

likely to represent under one percent to

at best

1.3 of vehicle sales between now and

2030. so you have to ask yourself if

you're a Legacy auto manufacturer if

you're a GM a Ford or a Toyota are you

really trying to risk the profitability

of your company chasing electric

vehicles because of a tax credit that's

going to cap at 1.3 percent of total

vehicle sales

of course not in fact you're much more

likely to actually double down on your

Antiquated ways and try to suggest that

you as part of the ice vehicle

manufacturing industry are part of none

other than folks the silent majority I

kid you not let me introduce you to

exhibit a quick message before we hit

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whatever you prefer for you let me

introduce you to exhibit a a Wall Street

Journal article that talks about the

president of Toyota whose last name is

toyoda

yes yes I know uh anyway

questioning whether electric vehicles

should be pursued exclusively now we

know that EVS are difficult to

manufacture relative to ice in that you

have to secure new Supply chains but

they're actually substantially easier to

put together once you figure your stuff

out but the president of Toyota says

they would prefer to focus on hybrids

and Ice vehicles and get this hydrogen

powered vehicles

rather than focus on EVS because you

know what they say they say the

following the silent majority is when

wondering whether electric vehicles are

really okay to have as a single option

the silent majority think that the trend

is electric vehicles so I guess we can't

speak out loudly against electric

vehicles but let's be real we're all in

on Ice vehicles and hybrids and hydrogen

power powered vehicles and those good

old gas engines because that's what

people want because you know what

charging infrastructure is still too

challenging so therefore let's just

Double Down On Ice vehicles and after

all the gas engine businesses are

driving a bulk of the profits that these

companies are creating anyway and so

again why potentially risk massive

downside to your company stock and

profitability by doubling down on

electric vehicles during a recession why

not instead just paint the picture that

hey you know what electric vehicles are

a niche segment of the business just 6.5

percent of the total Global new car

market and you know what we could

instead just focus on hybrids that can

deliver a better shorter term impact for

the climate and you know what electric

vehicles are just too complicated in

fact look even us over here at Toyota

you know we've been a little slower than

Rivals to roll out electric vehicles and

maybe it's because the ones that we've

created like the bz4x got recalled

because of safety problems

well folks this is actually really

interesting because what I want you to

think about here for a moment is wait a

minute

if Kevin is suggesting that the Eevee

tax credit is ironically not good enough

to motivate manufacturers to get into EV

manufacturing other than those that

already are like lucid rivie and tassel

right if that's not enough to motivate

the forward the GMS the Teslas the Audis

the Mercedes to really double down on EV

manufacturing especially going into a

recession where they might want to

appear profitable so they Double Down On

Ice Vehicles rather than EV then wait a

minute

the competition is exiting in the

recession think about that folks the

recession is destroying Tesla's

competition okay sure look Lucid is an

EV right they'll benefit benefit prop

potentially from this EV tax credit if

they can Source locally at over 75

percent blah blah blah blah right maybe

but if they produce 17 000 vehicles in

2023 knock on wood for their sake they

will still have half of their customers

waiting until 2024 for a vehicle when

you could press buy now on a Tesla right

now baby and guess what

I don't know about you but if I want

something I kind of rather have it now

then wait another year so there's a real

big benefit to Tesla being able to say

hey push the buy now button on a car and

you'll have it tomorrow people like that

people like instant gratification and

that's why Lucid is now scrambling to

prevent cancellations I did a video the

other week when I was covering the

riving and Lucid bankruptcy potential

where Lucid is potentially now

scrambling to say if somebody wants to

cancel a local manager has to call the

person three times then a regional

manager has or store manager has to call

the person two times then a regional

manager has to call the person two times

and they all have to try to convince the

person not to cancel the deal something

to that effect now Lucid did just raise

1.5 billion dollars and add the money at

the market at the money offering which

is basically just a stock offering they

raised 1.5 billion dollars the stock

actually went up briefly on this news

because it decreases their bankruptcy

risk slightly it gives them another nine

month Runway of cash burn 1.5 billion

dollars is roughly the cash burn they

had in the last nine months but another

company expecting cancellations is

Arabian mostly due to the fact that

their entry product is now more than

eighty thousand dollars why not buy a

Tesla Model three potentially for closer

to forty thousand dollars

anyway Point here is

that this recessionary environment

interestingly from a fundamental point

of view could absolutely destroy Tesla's

competition and pave the path to none

other than

reiterating which already is dominant

Tesla's actual dominance as the other

manufacturers crawl into a hole and go

back to making the gas guzzling Vehicles

they're good at producing

wow now how's that for a fundamental

argument you haven't heard of before but

wait a minute Kevin the stunk is going

down and it's so painful I look at my

portfolio and it's red every day yes

I feel ya okay

it makes me want to go back to the

bottle

I'm talking of course about like the

baby bottle like drinking milk and

crawling up into a hole and being

covered in a little blankie and going to

sleep until it's all over it does hurt

it sucks and if you define yourself buy

your portfolio every morning you're

gonna get watery eyes and and your

stomach's gonna feel bad and you're

gonna oh God you're gonna feel a

shortness of breath why because in the

stock market and this is something we

teach in the stocks and psychology of

money group and this is not a get rich

quick kind of scheme my courses are

long-term programs on building your

wealth trying to teach you how to change

the way you think in painful times that

is hard to do and let me just give you

one Insight here it is hard to see your

portfolio go down why because my friends

because because because

when we are in pain or in fear we seek

the natural reaction of either fight or

flight well guess what folks you can't

fight stocks just like you can't fight

the Fed so what are you left with flight

that's it it's either you eat the pain

or you flee

and you sell and that sucks and I'll

tell you there are no shortages of

short-term garbage catalysts

tax loss harvesting please tax loss

Harvest some Tesla most retails sell in

December to tax loss Harvest and most

retail rebuy in January probably because

of tax loss harvesting

guess what else you have an

institutionally Untouchable stock with

every single credit or maybe not every

single but many different uh price

targeting firms uh reducing their price

targets for Tesla because guess what

that's what they do when stock prices go

up they increase their price targets

when stocks go down they decrease their

price targets you want to fact check

that go look up what the price targets

were for Nikola when the stock was going

up everybody on wall Street's raising

their price targets about how great

Nikola is

all a farce it's all a short-term farce

I kid you not it's all a farce sure Elon

Musk is looking for a new CEO for

Twitter yes Elon Musk is robbing the

piggy bank of Tesla yes yes Elizabeth

Warren is correct when she says Elon

Musk is using Tesla as his play thing

she is right and I almost never agree

with Elizabeth Warren okay but she is

right Elon Musk is using Tesla as his

piggy bank to go dick around at Twitter

but you know what

that's his right okay it might be a slap

in the face to every Tesla investor it

might be a slap in the face to every

engineer and hard-working soul with

stock options at Tesla and they might

see their net worth plummeting and they

might doubt the own company they work

for but the reality is just because Elon

absorbs six weeks of retail order book

of hoddle order book with one foul swoop

of selling doesn't change the long-term

fundamentals for Tesla now I know some

people then go oh my gosh but Kevin the

volume is so much higher on Tesla stock

what do you mean six weeks of the order

book

listen institutions trade stocks retail

individuals trade stocks that's how you

get volume volume is trading but there

are also hodlers of a stock like

employees who believe in the company or

long-term investors who believe in the

company and when those people have their

shares eradicated by Elon selling you

actually Notch the fundamental floor for

Tesla stock down and I should not use

the word fundamental here because

fundamentals should be long-term

business fundamentals but you have to

think that huddlers long-term Believers

in a stock create a floor a trading

floor for a stock and when those floors

get broken and they're purchasing their

fundamental based purchasing gets eaten

Away by Insider selling because elon's

going to go play with uh you know

Twitter

it sucks there's nothing you can do

about it but that's what happens and you

end up absorbing six weeks of retail

buying pressure huddle buying pressure

on Tesla because of Elon sales and if

he's selling again uh yeah you know

today where the NASDAQ is flat and

Tesla's down two percent again

maybe maybe and it's painful but let's

also consider something else some folks

are worried that Tesla might have to

drop prices or hey what's going on with

the Tesla China demand okay look China I

believe is in the biggest depression

ever not only that but they're lying to

our faces about how many people are now

dying to covet as overnight they just

lifted the blanket of covet and they're

like you know what everybody gets sick

if you die oh well okay who the hell is

gonna buy a car in China when everybody

is stuck at home either fearful of

getting sick or they are sick okay

China's gonna go through hell for the

next two or three months and it's gonna

suck

but which should not make you fearful

is the reiteration Tesla is giving you

about Tesla Mexico

Tesla Mexico is expected to be at least

an 800 to 800 million to one billion

dollar investment into the northeastern

facility of Giga tax era of gigas Giga

Mexico actually and uh this is initially

expected to produce a components

supplying uh Giga Austin Texas but in

the future could have as much as 10

billion dollars of investment flow into

Giga Mexico and potentially be the site

of a new low-cost production Tesla this

is a huge game changer for Tesla and an

incredible opportunity to exercise

optionality on the long-term value of of

Tesla uh Giga Mexico is going to be huge

especially in my last video about gig at

Mexico where we talked about Tesla is

likely to explode soon because Giga

Mexico is part of the free trade

agreements that we need for Tesla to

maximize that 7 500 EV credit for all

their customers over the incremental

incrementally harder targets that are

set over the next years and think about

this put these pieces of the puzzle

together here

yes in the short term you have China fud

it's real okay it's not it's not fake

news it's real china demand falling off

a cliff because of what's happening in

China

but in the long term what do we have

other manufacturers going away and

moving away from EVS to protect their

profit margins where Tesla can now step

in and just take more of the EV tax

credit and is now likely rather than

doing stock BuyBacks to appease the

whiny people on Twitter

reinvesting in itself because it

believes so much in its own demand

now I know some people are concerned but

why when you go on Tesla can you now hit

buy now instead of custom order this is

a good thing we talked about this in the

course member live stream yesterday this

is a good thing if I go into the Apple

Store and I'm like and I did this I

bought this in Paris this is uh you know

I don't know this is like the star star

color or whatever of the iPad Mini here

I walked into that store and I said I

want the mini iPad if they told me well

it'll be three weeks I'm like well then

I won't buy it I mean I'm on vacation

now I want a smaller iPad to have while

I'm walking around Paris and traveling

and stuff but no what do they say sure

hey you know what we don't have all the

colors available but we got this one oh

yeah you know what I'll take it because

I want it now that's America

or first world country since that was in

France but anyway

that's what we want we want things now

and if Tesla can provide now and they're

still not yet reducing prices that's a

really good sign now I do want you to

prepare price Cuts will come but as long

as price Cuts occur

slower than costs decline that could

actually be okay because it means that

Tesla can actually potentially either

maintain or increase margin while

reducing prices and remember even if

Tesla doesn't necessarily reduce prices

even if prices stay stable it's still a

good thing for the Federal Reserve

because we just don't want to see prices

increasing we want to see stability that

stability is zero percent inflation so

long and short out of all of this yes

other manufacturers are going to scale

back their EV production in a recession

yes there are a hell of a lot of bad

short-term catalysts for Tesla it's

painful it sucks I don't blame you for

selling

but in the long term

I personally and this is my personal

opinion not Financial advice for you I

personally do not see a better

opportunity in the market I have not

seen a better opportunity in the market

for like the last 100 on Tesla share

price which just shows that that

opportunity keeps getting better and

better and better and you know what it

might keep getting better and better and

better I'm not here to tell you that

Tesla's gonna go green after you buy it

in fact it's going to feel like a money

pit in a furnace and guess what that is

what it means to be a recessionary based

investor when you're investing in a

recession it feels like hell and I'm

sorry I wish I could make the pain stop

but boy the more and more I look at the

fundamentals the more I'm like man I

wish I had some more dough to throw

muscle stock because

it's good

it's bill to pay so I had to sell a

little bit and it pains me but I still

hold the vast majority of my Tesla

shares very very excited about the

long-term future of Tesla and you know

what

don't need the money

so hey buckle up folks we're on a ride