Major Bank *JUST NOW* FREAKING OUT | Collapse Warning.

oh man it's getting worse banks are now

worried about a collapse recession odds

are going up Japan failed us today mind

you Jim Kramer tank Tesla Taylor Swift

almost got Isis and a recession is

getting closer by the day I'm going to

catch you up with everything that's

going on here the first thing that we

should really touch on though because

well it's a classic it just doesn't miss

it's Jimbo Jim Kramer the clip I'm about

to show you took place in our free every

morning Market open live stream took

place at about 641 a.m. and from the

exact moment of this clip Tesla stock

fell about

4.3% you could follow me at real me

Kevin to see me tweet this stuff during

the day but I want you to see it here

ready for it here we go rather I'd

rather buy Tesla thinking that thinking

that demand isn't that oh no I know

uh it was then that we knew Tesla was

screwed for the day in fact if you look

at the individual chart for Tesla I

don't know how he does it but he

literally matched the peak when he said

I'd rather buy Tesla it was the highest

candle this is a 5minute candle here of

the

day so naturally when that happened I

couldn't help myself

I bought a put I bought a $100 put for

65 and it was up almost 50% by the end

of the trading day be up even actually

it's up even more now because Tesla's

down 1.34% and after hours so dang it

Jim JY strikes again anyway of course I

sent that alert to everybody in my

stocks group if you want in on the

alerts that I sent in my stocks Group

which really it's the purpose of them is

for you to get perspective on where I'm

seeing Trends or trades we still have

that flash sale going on through the day

today that flash sale Ends Tonight you

get access to all the course member live

streams the archive of course member

live streams the trade alerts can't

guarantee you'll make money but we'll

always do our best this was my p&l today

uh I kept my Tesla contract so I haven't

closed it out yet so that after hours is

still printing on it uh anyway if you

want to see those learn more at

meetkevin.com again can't make any

guarantees it's just for educational

purposes so that's Jim CR and Tesla but

what the heck happened with Japan

yesterday

Japan had their Central Bank bailout

markets and we're not even close to the

banking part yet this is a whole crisis

we're going to talk banks in just a

moment but yesterday the Central Bank of

Japan bailed out markets I made a video

yesterday and I said this is bad this is

not good in fact this is a sign that the

stock market and I even tweeted it here

and made a video on it I said the stock

market is so IL liquid the boj had to

capitulate within 48 Hours not good now

of course Market started Rising after

this uh in after hours even in America

you know futures or whatever and I'm

like this is this is bad it's not going

to play out good tomorrow and sure

enough even though we had indices open

up nicely and positively this morning by

over a%c take a look on screen here the

qes were at 4.49 we closed yesterday way

lower than that it was like 439 that we

closed yesterday so we ran up a good 2%

and this just tanked throughout the

entire day and guess what the qes ended

up down

1.08% and they're down another per in

the after hours and that's why I tweeted

the following here wait so you mean the

bank of Japan isn't bailing out US

Stocks oh no if only someone had warned

us anyway that's why you subscribe here

we talked about exactly this happening

yesterday but what about the banks well

the banks are freaking out and I mean

the big ones Goldman Sachs just lifted

their recession risk to 25% which is

kind of low for the year though could go

into recession in 25 what did JP Morgan

do today for this year in 2024 the

calendar year only what five months left

here JP Morgan just increased their risk

of recession from 25% to

35% Jamie Diamond does say I don't think

we're in a recession yet today but

things are obviously slowing down

there's no question of that he also

doesn't see us actually getting back to

2% inflation anytime soon which is

actually really bad he says there are

multiple inflationary forces still ahead

of

us this is bad because it means higher

for longer a slower fed and the slower

the FED is the more they're actually

tightening see as inflation slowly Falls

and the FED stays here you're getting

tighter because those interest rates

have more of a bite as inflation Falls

it's not quite a 2% even if you get a a

25 or 50 basis point cut or even 75 bips

of cuts this year if inflation is

significantly lower than that you're

actually net net tightening more than

you're loosing policy told you the banks

are freaking out take a look at this

mufg it's both an investment bank and A

lender uh so I know an investment Bank

technically isn't a bank but they also

have banking services okay whatever who

cares mufg this is a big one okay what

do they say as the dust settles we

remain Vigilant and unconvinced that the

coast is clear we've said no to the no

Landing narrative we didn't go soft on

soft landing and our thesis remains that

a bumpy Landing can turn into a hard

Landing If the Fed drags out the easing

cycle that's basically what I just

described about how we're actually

tightening as time goes on they say this

time is not different the longer they

wait the more they will need to cut If

the Fed delivers major Cuts it's

possible they could foam the runway

lessen the impact of consumer spending

small business financing uh falling and

avoid causing damage to jobs

and they go over here and mention that

they actually see a 5050 risk on

recession versus expansion although hard

Landing views have largely receded the

curve reminds us that perhaps the risk

still lingers they actually suggest uh

that a recession is much more likely in

the new year so basically like q1 Q2

which sort of aligns with JP Morgan and

Goldman Sachs saying no recession right

now and even though the odds are going

up this year you know you start asking

about next year the numbers start going

up a little bit it's not it's no bueno

it's no bueno at all okay uh on top of

that they also see the rate cuts that

we've already been expecting like the

September 50 basis point cut that's

mostly priced in it's priced in with

like a 70% chance 100% chance of a 25b

BPS uh but anyway there they argue you

know it's actually a problem because the

stock market is falling and we've

already priced in these Cuts so when the

cuts come it's like yeah we were already

expecting that like what are you going a

rally off of that they're not very happy

here at all and I mean frankly to some

extent you shouldn't be happy either

there are some serious concerns consider

some of these other elements of concerns

uh right here I'll throw this on screen

this is discover and Capital One showing

their net charge off ratio something to

know about these companies is is they uh

cater to a lower income consumer uh and

they're struggling they're they're

struggling more than Taylor Swift now

you might think oh Taylor Swift isn't

struggling did you hear that she just

had to cancel three shows because she

almost got Isis yeah literally

apparently two Isis followers we don't

know if they actually were Isis

terrorists one of them was just 19 years

old but anyway two alleged adherence to

Isis were planning a potential chemical

weapons attack on the Ern haal Stadium

during the AOS tour now this was foiled

in Austria but like my goodness it's

scary goodness gracious anyway it's not

just these charge off ratios going up

for poor uh individuals but you're

starting to price in uh-oh the consumer

really is starting starting to hit a

wall that's what we're seeing in

earnings mind you Q3 earnings aren't

great they're not going to be great we

get those in October and the guidance we

get for Q4 I'm almost certain is going

to be recessionary but in the meantime

take a look at the Consumer Credit Data

that we just got today again it isn't

good here it is revolving credit monthly

change I want you to see these little

red bars right here so if we Zoom or or

just look at the right over there see

those two little red Nicks okay we've

had those two little red Nicks now two

times in the last 3 months how many

times did we have that before Co well in

the six years on this chart before covid

we had it 1 2 3 4 five times that's it I

mean maybe there's like a tiny little

Nick there on the left I can't tell if

that's green or red but the point is we

had just had two in 3 months and we had

five to six in six years so we generally

only average a red maybe once a year if

that now we've had two Reds on Consumer

Credit in literally two months now you

might be saying to yourself oh but but

Kevin I mean Consumer Credit it's it's

still Rose today yes it did in fact the

St Louis uh Federal Reserve they talked

specifically about this uh you could

actually see it I I love following them

I don't know how many people actually

engage with this crap because it's

really boring I mean they got four likes

on their I still call it Twitter they X

page but anyway uh in June seasonally

adjusted revolving consumer credit

credit cards decreased 1.7 billion while

seasonally adjusted non-revolving

Consumer Debt like autos and student

loans Rose 10.6 billion in other words

because you're still waiting for Biden

student loan forgiveness uh you're

you're seeing an explosion this was

mostly student loan forgiveness mind you

seeing an or student loan debt see an

explosion in student loan debt you're

actually decreasing credit card spending

which is bad for GDP it's recessionary

now it's good for people individually

because hopefully they're trying to

balance their finances but the reality

is most people aren't using their credit

less because they have balanced finances

they're using their credit less because

they're out they're tapped out they

fully maxed out their credit I actually

think one of the first companies to go

bankrupt in the next recession is going

to be a firm I got puts on that sucker

just to be transparent I have a full

thesis on that that I talked with course

members about but I'll just give it to

you straight here they hold over5

billion of their crappy debt their buy

now pay later debt on their books and

then they finance more like getting more

cash to do more of these garbage

loans against those assets they have

like six billion dollars of debt secured

against those crappy loans so you you

are literally

borrowing assuming that asset is good

but the asset is like a rotten basket of

trash it's the first thing that people

are going to stop paying their stupid

buy now pay later loan it's not like

they're going to repossess your flight

that you buy now pay later or your

pelaton or your

groceries maybe maybe they might ding

your credit maybe there have been a lot

of issues reporting buy now pay later on

credit anyway that's like the first

thing people should stop paying and I

suspect likely will stop paying it's

crazy absolutely crazy so anyway these

are really really bad figures from uh

Banks uh and what's going on with

consumers but then you got to look and

see okay well what's going on with pay

like pay and employment like are are

people at least able to get hopefully

pay raises and make more money well not

according to the Wall Street Journal pay

rates for new hires across Industries

are 7% lower than they were for new

recruits for the same roles in

2022 the biggest drops have been in

White Collar jobs especially in finance

new higher pay rates down

99.2% since last year those are quotes

from The Wall Street Journal and I think

this is going to keep happening most of

these companies are just going to keep

offering lower pay raises lower initial

salaries they're going to advertise

fewer jobs they're going to cut hours

and eventually they'll just lay off

excess staff and I think this is going

to get worse before it gets better now a

lot of people are like oh but Kevin you

know the Federal Reserve doesn't want

unemployment bro do you know what the

historical unemployment rate is I I

really I want you to think about that

right now we are at

4.3% what do you think the historic

average unemployment rate is in other

words how much buffer do we think the

Federal Reserve has before you're

actually like higher than normal

unemployment well the average is roughly

5.5% in fact you could look at this

chart right here I'll hide myself for a

second so you could see it a little

better uh I drew this line right here

where I think you sort of have the best

fit for it uh but it sits roughly at

about 5.5% and you can see see all that

spread over there on the right where I'm

scribbling right there yeah that's all

of the room they have to potentially go

up with the unemployment rate and still

be at the historic average that's crazy

uh understand that if if we go every

million we go up that's like 1.5 million

people out of jobs at any given time

that's not good now I mean there is a

little bit of relief like McDonald's

which had its first sales declin since

2020 well you know they introduced a $5

value meal so if you want to you know

basically die off a food I shouldn't say

that uh don't sue me McDonald's okay $5

value meal unless you're in France then

you'll only get a Happy Meal for

€4 which is about

$5 I haven't checked the exchange rate

recently so fact check me on that but

anyway You' also go to Jack In The Box

who's now doing Munchies under

$4 Hershey's craft Proctor and Gamble

Amazon all of them say sales are

weakening AI Euphoria is collapsing I

mean did you see what happened to Super

Micro trash today oh my gosh complete

Insanity and we talked about this

yesterday but I want to show you

something I mean look look at this

absolute trash stock right here okay

down 20% on the day yesterday and after

hours it was up at like $720

$730 so it literally had like a 40%

swing over the last 24 hours which is

crazy it's at $480 right now but take a

look at this I want you to see this

three weeks 3 weeks uh you can see that

right here cuz this is a screenshot

these are two screenshots here of my

February 14th course member live stream

archive uh that's what people really

like the courses for by the way that's

that's what you're paying for the

lectures the course member live streams

you know we throw in the occasional

trade alerts uh when I trade on a daily

basis sort of for free but these course

member live streams this is really I

think where my like real value and

perspective comes from the trading is

fun too but look at what we said 3 weeks

after course members asked me to analyze

super micro computer remind you again

February 14th okay 3 weeks after super

micro Computer stock peaked and then

collapsed

56% within 5 months why did I not invest

based on what I saw February 14th

because I did

not I said comps in 2025 will be insane

in other words the comparable sales

comparing to 2024 and management will

blame High comps for faltering growth so

basically I drew this out I thought

thought that their growth rate was going

to collapse and then I wrote does this

justify higher prices when the industry

gets to that level of normalized growth

does enthusiasm Wayne and then I wrote

uh tough comps next year will be very

real and margins are going to compress

which is really interesting because if

you look at what they just said I wrote

margin compression will come and

management literally just complained

about margin compression yesterday I

wrote this back on February 14th you

know I'm not trying to pretend I've got

a crystal ball here I'm just saying we

do fundamental analysis this is some of

the stuff that you get and you get if

you join today using the flash sale You'

get our archive going all the way back

to like I don't know 2017 live streams

depending on which of the courses you

got but anyway all my analysis is there

it's included uh does peak and growth

justify valuations no of course not and

when growth normalizes will enthusiasm

Wayne and valuation collapse well I mean

you tell me it's down 56 plus% now it's

probably down 60% now the writing was on

the wall for very very long time so the

AI Euphoria is really rolling over but

then you have to understand that the

Federal Reserve really has problems here

uh you know the Federal Reserve is in

this position where if they cut quickly

maybe they avoid a recession but then if

they reignite inflation they're going to

lose all credibility we talked about

this yesterday if uh they do cut by the

way they're actually going to likely

push down the value of the dollar oh my

gosh why would you be worried about the

value of the dollar going down well if

the value of the dollar goes down and

the Japanese Yen stays stable then the

spread widens oh no the carry trade

becomes a problem again

oopsies remember yesterday we talked

about how Reuters reported that there's

still 50% unwinding to do on the carry

trade and and then you also have to look

at just the massive imbalance that there

is in selling pressure I mean on on the

stock market right now you know some

tweeted uh tweeted I I'm just so used to

that somebody tweeted uh here reminder

there is a record 6.1 trillion of cash

sitting on the sidelines they're buying

the dip uh and and I wrote no they're

not buying the dip with that pool

investable cash is at record low levels

we have not seen since 2001. era most

right before the crash right most of

this money on the sidelines is probably

Cash Cash equivalence at Mega caps Banks

and corporations it's not investable

oopsies we talked about that because

that was re research from uh I think

it's BR research is what it's called or

is RCA I I can't remember what they're

called but anyway um this is a problem

you know add to this what we saw uh with

uh

mufg uh and uh what you're

seeing with the fed you really have a

problem here because you've got an

amplified carry trade that's possible

people who can't buy the dip because

they're already allocated this is why

I've been screaming for weeks increase

your cash allocation do what Warren

Buffett's doing uh and the long longer

the FED weights the more tightening

you're getting at the same time as banks

are freaking out this is all good this

is all like it's all worsening I don't

know why I said good it's all worsening

all not good is what I meant to say you

know but you have to remember there is

something worse than a recession a

recession is going to destroy stocks

like a recession is a stock killer

because you know growth collapses at

stocks which is what you're paying for

at a lot of stocks is growth even value

stocks you want them to grow something

cuz otherwise they're just burning your

Capital if they're not growing so they

just grow less but anyway uh there's

something worse than a recession for the

fed that's inflation it destroys Central

bank's country's currencies so the Dual

mandate is actually skewed towards

recession because we can afford for

unemployment to go up another 1.2% and

it would still be within historic Norms

so it's easy for the FED to justify that

we still have pricing pressures Disney

just raised prices uh insurances are

still Skyhigh ISM service numbers on

Monday indicated pricing pressure still

Rising Jamie Diamond says we still have

pricing pressures ahead of us in terms

of rising prices don't get me wrong I

personally think the inflation problem

is is like gone I I think the FED should

cut I think inflation will die uh we're

going to get back to the great

moderation of disinflation over the last

40 years but the one way you can

guarantee that is with a recession so

the fed's going to bias towards that so

anyway my strategy remains very clear if

there's no recession uh by the election

then based on whatever data we have then

I'll probably Bu The Dip right before

the election because that's when you'll

be at Peak uncertainty and probably high

volatility if there if there is a

recession by the election then I'll

probably wait until the Federal Reserve

capitulates uh and by that I mean like

we're going back to uh zero rates we're

going back to quantitive easing or

quantitative easing uh anyway

now the big takeaway here is the

consumer is so weak and the FED is still

tightening by doing nothing right now

that you are literally getting Banks

warning of a bumpy path ahead and if not

a recession this year than next it's not

a great place to be right now so I I'm

nervous I still think the uh risk reward

for being in stocks is very very low uh

anyway if uh if you do want to take

advantage of the flash sale it's still

going on uh tonight we'll probably uh

you know swap that price out uh closer

to midnight give you a chance to get in

there if you have any questions you can

always email us at staff atme kevin.com

if you have any issues but otherwise

it's all at me kevin.com again none of

this personalized Financial advice I

just try my best to provide perspective

what you do with that information is

totally up to you anyway thank you so

very much for being here we'll see you

in the next one and folks seriously good

luck out there do not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

goes congratulations man you have done

so much people love you people look up

to you Kevin P there financial analyst

and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to

get your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

it is not tax legal or otherwise

personalized advice tailored to you this

video provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any third

party content I show shall not be deemed

endorsed by me this video is not and

shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purposes

of evaluating a security or investment

decision any links or promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services we may benefit from I also

personally operate an actively managed

ETF I may personally hold or otherwise

hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuer other than

house act nor am I presently acting as a

market maker make sure if you're

considering investing in house to always

read the PPM at house.com