News Today & Trump News: The Meet Kevin Report [02/13/25]

hey everyone me Kevin here here's what

you need to know for February 13th

there's a temporary and long-term

staffing agency called ronot they own

monster.com bottom line they're like hey

everybody's so freaking optimistic about

the economy right now but how come

that's not showing up in hiring data and

what companies are actually doing yet

quote Top Executives at the world's

largest employment agency by Revenue

said that they were seeing a disconnect

between sentiment and reality in the

United States with business is talking

about a strong jobs Market but

recruiters not seeing a surge in hiring

yet now In fairness it's possible that

we've got to get through the seasonal

layoffs first and then maybe we'll see a

surge in hiring again as the economy

booms in fact Ned Davis is jumping up

and down because right now they say

we're at the lowest recession odds since

October of 2020 one which which is

interesting because that was basically

right in front of the peak of the market

so then you wonder like if we're at the

lowest since that anyway they're

recommending a 70% allocation to stocks

15% overweight compared to usual with

only 20% for bonds and a 10% for cash

this comes at the same time as Bank of

America is like and we've heard this

argument like for an entire decade

already but they're bringing up again

you know you know passive funds are

really reducing Reliance on fundamentals

and diversification you know passive

funds are 5 4% of the market and the top

five stocks of the S&P 500 account for

25% of it this is crazy okay but also

those top five companies are making

money hand over freaking fast like the

amount of earnings that are going into

US companies right now relative to the

rest of the world kind of makes sense

why valuations are skyrocketing in the

US because the earnings power is crazy

and you should see app love it now that

oh talk about massive pee over there but

we'll hit that in just a moment unlike

trade desk oh you don't even want to

know what trade desk said in their

earnings call okay it's bad let's just

say part of their company plan is uh

we'll do good when Google shuts

down I kid you

not but so so think about this for a

moment we're in this really Goldilocks

environment right now where the economy

is essentially expanding uh at least

from all metrics that we could see I

mean earnings at so many different

compan companies are beating in

explosive manners uh yes we've got this

potential for uh an increase in layoffs

one day we're not seeing it yet because

even the Wall Street Journal on the

front page of the Wall Street Journal

website today talks about how hey uh 65

to 75,000 people from the federal

government are going to take the layoffs

that Trump is offering they take those

layoff deals and then they go look for

other jobs and they quote interviews

from hiring managers of companies that

are like dude we've had like 60 fed boys

show up for jobs and we just don't have

that many jobs to give them and they

sort of balance this by saying it's okay

though because local governments are

hiring like police departments and

cities they usually hire later in Cycles

anyway so maybe that's okay and it'll

sort of balance out I I don't really

know what to believe but I will say some

things that we know with certainty right

now were with the exception of tariffs

optimism is really really high and

valuations at companies are very very

high uh but

some companies are also just printing a

lot of money and part of that could be

because of this boom in AI spending that

we've seen and I thought of a funny

irony the funny irony is what happens if

you basically spend hundreds of billions

of dollars maybe even trillions of

dollars on artificial intelligence

infrastructure to generate you know a

fraction of that in revenues because

sure maybe it makes everybody a little

bit more productive but it doesn't make

us a a lot more productive to the point

where AI productivity doesn't actually

lead to layoffs it just leads to us

working with AI and getting a little bit

of a 10% productivity boost but it's not

strong enough to lead to layoffs so you

kind of get the best of both you get

companies throwing billions of dollars

into essentially GDP increasers but then

not laying people off because they still

need people because the AI just isn't

that good yet you still need a human

with AI to actually do real work it's

kind of funny when you think about it

like that because that's that's a pretty

bullish Outlook actually like that's not

to be bearish that's actually a bullish

Outlook if you think about it that

that's good because if companies aren't

going to lay people off then you're not

going to walk into the recession

landmine and then maybe Ned Davis is

going to be right where they're saying

like hey the odds of a recession right

now are extremely low now they according

to them Spike to like 40% back when we

were in August which was interesting I

mean you could see the chart I'll show

it to you right here it is an

interesting chart to look at here's the

chart what are ndrs recession models are

telling us now and when you zoom into it

you can see this thing I mean in my

opinion when I see a chart like this

it's not particularly useful because

look at how early of a lead they gave

you for the recession of 2008 right

here basically the recession already

started when you were over a 30% chance

and these are the same

that you know in August had a 40% chance

of recession in the United States okay

so not a very useful chart in my

opinion uh but another thing that's also

kind of interesting is if you go back to

where was it oh it was one of these

charts in here recession likelihood look

at this uh us recession probability

based on the on on state conditions okay

what's fascinating here is look how you

had this sort of like double d dip in

fact you saw this in 89 as well see look

at this recession odds spiked dipped oh

crap now we're in recession so it's sort

of like oh no recession odds are going

up nah bro we're fine crap we're in a

recession that happened in 89 but look

at this it also happened in

2007 hey bro we're going into recession

nah man everything's fine Leman Brothers

collapses oh crap oh no the might be a

double

dip oh my gosh it just it honestly it

makes me think you just you can't listen

to half of the stuff these people are

saying because I feel like they're just

spitting in the wind uh and and hoping

the wind changes

directions uh but anyway uh kind of

interesting uh at the same time you do

get layoffs right I mean you're seeing

them but then you get this every January

right I mean Amazon's forcing people

back to work there are stories about how

people are running out of desk space

Chevron cutting Workforce by 20% blue

origin Jeff bezos's Space play cutting

10% of its Workforce in a global

restructuring but then you know you you

take that and you flip over and you say

okay well how are companies doing well

uh when you actually start looking at

fundamentals although I mean I know a

lot of people don't because you don't

have to I mean you could just buy a

stock and it just goes up sort of the

market we're in right now I'm not

advising that I'm just observing that uh

but but look at a company like app love

it I mean this is like absolutely

incredible uh let's see here this is uh

app L let's get rid of this little

sidebar thingy here there we go all

right look at this Revenue has exploded

like

42% at this company year-over-year

they're an advertising play for apps so

like you know apps on your phone inapp

ads right uh and their sales actually

decreased about 3% year-over-year last

year and even if you remove the tax

benefit they still have 37% net margins

now their valuation you know they're

trading for like a 2.4 Peg which is

somewhat okay for a software Biz uh they

they've got you know they've got nice

cash flow a couple billies a year uh but

you know they're also like $130 billion

company so it's a smaller percentage of

the total business but this company

prints money like absolutely

this is like a printing press of money

now I don't have an investment in the

company I wish I did but I'm just I I

was just analyzing this this morning

with our course members and I'm like you

know the balance Sheet's okay it's not

like paler strong but this is very good

and this stands in contrast to a company

like tradesk that I'm honestly vomiting

over because first things first we gave

a warning to course members about trade

desk in January it was uh uh I think it

was January 22nd look at the warning

that we spotted and I'll tell you where

we saw it too this right here was the

warning this is the Netflix earnings

call and they say the biggest initial

benefit we have of using our own ad

server is enabling us to offer more

flexibility more ways of buying for

advertising fewer activation hurdles and

just improving the overall buying

experience so I wrote not great for

trade desk if Netflix prefer their own

stuff and so I foreshadowed hey like

this is bad if companies start

in-housing these ad services like Amazon

or Disney or Netflix because they

realize they could use less complicated

software more stream light products and

ultimately keep more money for

themselves then trade desk fails trade

desk could vanish they were great

because they were one of the early plays

in Connected TV advertising but you

could now literally go down the poopy

dupies because companies like Netflix

are like bro we don't need you we're

just going to cut out the middleman we

don't need a broker in the middle of

this we have plenty we have we control

the supply because we make the movies

and people contact us to place ads what

do we need you for to try to sell our

ads plus we got plenty of people who

want our slots so that was a really big

red flag I mean massive red flag and we

talked about it with course members

because this is what we do fundamental

analysis all the time in addition to

technical analysis get the course member

live streams we were live for like an

hour and a half this morning you really

want to be a part of it and be part of

it live for more than an hour and a half

this morning uh you get lifetime access

you pay once over me kevin.com use the

coupon code before the price goes up but

what I want you to see which was

absolutely mindblowing and I'm not going

to go through all of this because there

was a lot that was mind-blowing in this

but I want you to see this one section

here this was crazy you ready for this

this is part of their business plan uh

and they write if in okay yeah here some

evidence suggests the substantial

majority of spend is going through blah

blah blah routed through Google's own

platforms to YouTube blah blah blah

whatever happens with the trial decision

Google will likely distance itself from

the open internet if and when Google

exits the open internet they will leave

a big hole and a big opportunity for the

rest of

us what did I really just hear trade

desk say hey guys we're going to do

great when Google leaves the

internet this is like I'm I hate to use

the word but it's like Financial

retardation okay this is like are you

kidding me this is what the ex who is

this the CEO or the CFO this was the CEO

Jeff Green of trade desk I think he

actually lives in Thousand Oaks tell me

I'm wrong Jeff let's go to coffee I I'll

come up to Westlake we could go to you

know one of your little bougie

restaurants over there or whatever and

let's understand why you would say this

and why I'm wrong to interpret that this

is basically something like hey if uh

Elon uh decides to retire house hack

will do well you know that's like what

do they have to what what like this

doesn't make sense right

uh I still think diversifying into real

estate right now is a really good idea

especially with with where some

valuations are but I'm a little biased

okay I like real estate a lot it's

because maybe I'm just a boring person I

don't know but anyway you know I mean

they literally then start bitching about

Amazon they're like oh you know we

should wait for people to stop

supporting Amazon because Amazon sells

products that could compete with

customers of Amazon so there's a

conflict of interest there you know

trade desk is great because we're

objective and I'm like no y'all are

smoking

crack so you know and then you look at

the market today and trade desk is down

30% on on missed guide uh and missed

earnings and app Lovin Beats earnings

and guidance by a lot uh so you know you

got one up 30% one down 30% I'm like oh

this is going to be overblown for trade

desk I went into trade desk thinking

maybe this is a great time to sell some

puts which honestly even though I'm

pooping on it right now it it could be

unless the broader Market sells down it

could be an interesting time to sell

puts because volatility is going to go

through the roof right uh but anyway I'm

looking at the er's call I'm like oh no

no this is actually

bad uh yeah that was something else uh

anyway anyway so that's app Lov and uh

trade desk something that I I want to

hit though is the Wall Street Journal is

complaining about Donald Trump because

uh they're saying like hey Trump isn't

it backwards that you're clamoring for

lower taxes yet you're trying to get you

know higher uh tariffs honestly have we

not realized the Playbook yet that most

of this is just uh

negotiating uh you know now the current

tariffs they're announcing today at 1:00

are going to have a start uh starting

date of April 1st so it's like

bro that gives you like six weeks to

negotiate this stuff this is a what is

this like a joke or something April 1st

we all know what April 1 is it's Lord

and my

anniversary uh House GOP aims for C tax

cuts of four and a half Bill trillion

dollars that's great but they're two-p

parting this which is not what people

wanted Trump wanted a one big beautiful

Bill and instead it looks like they're

going to go for about a $350 billion

package first focused on border security

and National Defense and then they'll

work on the tax negotiation later for

you know Social Security tax on tips uh

extending the 2017 Cuts so tax

deductions you know all that good stuff

uh so this is all going to be very

interesting Trump media Boss by the way

uh not to be confused with Trump Media

Group but Trump's FCC chair is now

apparently investigating NBC for

promoting Dei uh and now they're

potentially opening cases against

multiple media Outlets like C CBS thanks

to its edit of the kamla Harris

interview uh it's actually really

interesting because you straight up have

basically Trump without any shame

going let's put a pitbull in at the

Federal Communications Commission and go

after the people who were mean to me

while I was

running it's like all right well I mean

you won so I guess you get to but anyway

uh there's also this drama about uh

Tesla potentially getting a Biden

contract for armored Teslas uh it

literally in the government documents it

says armored

Teslas and $400 Million worth of those

then of course Elon Musk writes on X

that this is fake news and that he's not

aware of any $400 million handout

apparently this was a Biden proposal and

then what they did is they actually just

went back and edited it this morning and

they changed it to armored electric

vehicles from armored Teslas so it looks

like they were supposed to go to Teslas

from the Biden admin but now they're

realizing it they're like nah let's edit

that uh we don't want to make it seem

like you know contracts are flowing over

to Tesla from elon's influence in the

government but then like the cat's out

of the bag and Tesla Stock's actually up

like 4% today on this impression that

Yes actually uh we might we might

exactly see Tesla certainly SpaceX get

more business because of their

connection to Trump especially since you

know Trump is now getting rid he just

got signed an executive order getting

rid of the anti-bribery law that existed

the executive order is called pausing

the foreign corrup Practices Act

enforcement to further economic and

National Securities I I can't help but

think like some of the cronies inside of

the Trump Administration are like hey

bro sign this it's good for the National

Defense and and

economy and like I'm not trying to say

Trump's like a puppet here but he signs

it and like all of his Cron are

like so what you're saying now is we

could start accepting red envelopes and

assigning government grants and projects

uh yeah yeah and then not get not

potentially uh you know get in trouble

for that now technically if you read the

executive order this is only a six-month

pause and so there could be bribed uh

enforcement after that for what happened

during the 6 months some people say

companies are going to go to you know

countries that around the world start

accepting bribes and start building

infrastructure that this loosens

deterrence against bribery and

Corruption others are like who cares if

it benefits the US economy and people

want to be corrupt they're corrupt

anyway so let them be corrupt I I I I

don't know I guess let me just put it

this way it wasn't on my bingo card that

Trump was going to get rid of

anti-bribery laws it it doesn't exactly

smell good but who knows I guess we'll

see what

happens you know my initial gut is this

is probably a bad thing uh but uh

there's also the argument that in the

short term maybe it just expands the

bubble and uh you can make some more

Bank in the meantime not saying it's a

good thing at all but anyway um the odds

of a ceasefire which this I actually

like uh Trump is open to talks with

Putin if he talks to Putin he also

talked to seleni highly productive phone

calls between the two leaders you know

Trump and and seninsky and then Putin

and Trump uh they believe that they'll

come up with solution soon one of the

potential Solutions is military support

for Ukraine in exchange for the United

States getting Rare Earth minerals uh

which is brilliant because it's sort of

like hey you know why are we giving so

much and not getting in return so that's

kind of interesting but you know the

betting markets now have a 69% chance at

ending uh or getting some kind of

ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine

which I'm all for because I'm tired of

seeing people die Trump uh is now

apparently using the US military to uh

surveil and conduct a reconnaissance on

the cart over

Mexico that's kind of entertaining and

uh fredi M uh warns that Elon Musk could

end up facing consequences for boosting

the alternative for deand on X in case

you don't know everybody in the media

calls the afd uh the uh uh you know far

right uh you know organization that uh

that's too extreme and and you know

they're they're going to turn into

dictators like

Trump this is what people say okay I'm

not saying I say that but uh other

people say well the offda for the first

time in a very long time is actually

getting a good amount of votes so they

could end up getting 20% of the vote in

Germany and even though the sdu is

expected

to essentially get the most votes and

then form a coalition with other

governments Matt says there's no way

basically in Hell he's going to partner

with the afd because he sees them as far

right Wingers uh and actually and

potentially wants to punish Elon Musk

for promoting the IFD IFD is also very

like anti-immigration please like get

the Muslims out is sort of the argument

there again I'm not saying that they say

it it's not exactly helped but like you

know by this fact

that an Afghan 24y old rammed 28 people

and injured them no word out on any

deaths knock on wood uh in Munich today

which is just like this needs to stop

happening but anyway Meritt says that

Elon Musk could face consequences for

boosting the A on X he says it could be

a political response it could be a legal

response he wants to analyze this after

the election and says that he might

actually leave some consequences on the

table for Giga Berlin so you know if the

leader of Germany potentially has

control over one of the largest

factories uh that Tesla has you know

could put a little bit more of a a poopy

doopy on at least some of the margins

that Tesla has I don't think they're

gonna like shut him down because that

would cost jobs but there are potentials

for for sanctions or fines or or

whatever I'm not saying anything is

right again just sort of reporting the

news here uh again kind of still think

that anti-bribery thing is a little

little interesting but okay uh anyway

PPI was slightly hotter this morning

jobless claims slightly lower honestly

the more you look at this stuff and then

like Robin Hood is blowing up because

they see revenues doubling this year

especially because they're calling

prediction markets the future I mean

like the more stocks go up oh and Eva

the more stocks go up the more like Hood

goes up because people are trading it on

Hood a lot right it is a little bit of a

crazy time right now because

everything's just kind of going straight

up I I mean I can't help myself but feel

like we're sort of in like the leadup to

uh December of 20121 but I don't know

what the catalyst is for being bearish

so I'm not going to tell you to be a

dirty bear uh in fact I'll tell you

that's a pretty lonely world to be in I

wouldn't

know so um this morning I sent out a

daily well oh um is that it and Dutch

Bros is doing that yeah Dutch Bros nice

nice move there on margins too but um

this morning I sent a thing on The Daily

Wealth basically argued that boredom is

a good thing so if you're stressed and

overwhelmed because you have too much on

your plate it's really important to

start axing things off of your plate so

you could stop being stressed and

overwhelmed and you could actually let

those creative Juices Flow again and the

doors can open so it's one of the

reasons like I want to just consolidate

close doors where they don't make sense

in my life right now and then let myself

focus on where things are really

profitable and really doing well

specifically like house hack absolutely

dominating it they like especially with

what happen in California with the

fires let's just say a lot of our real

estate probably went up in value because

I'm just

saying anyway so uh that's what I got

for you if you want to join the courses

on Building Wealth check them out over

at Meek kevin.com we talk about the

lines every day uh we talk about exactly

you'll know about the two lines that the

q's are playing right now and you know

how to trade these two uh we'll talk uh

sold calls sold puts you know short puts

short calls basically uh and then also

purchased uh you know long calls and

puts anyway thank you so much for being

here appreciate you all and we'll see

you in the next one thanks so much

goodbye good luck why not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin P there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take