The Fed JUST Leaked its Great Reset Plans.

holy smokes Chinese stocks are up almost

seven percent following their lowest

close since

2005. on top of that we've got even more

rumors coming out from what's now being

dubbed and Nikki leaks that's because

there's this guy Nick T at the Wall

Street Journal who seems to be sitting

in the back pocket of the Federal

Reserve and happens to get text message

leaks from the fed and boy we got

another one today another one

well folks the reason Chinese stocks are

up and we're seeing some green in our

indices has in part to do with

unverified social media posts

circulating that a committee is

potentially being formed in China to

assess scenarios to Exit covid Zero now

that would be remarkable since after the

Chinese Congress that we just had okay

in the National Congress we were

expecting some kind of softening to

covet zero but we got nothing all we got

was a soft exit for huge Intel the

Chinese foreign minister did hear about

these rumors this morning and said that

he was not aware of such a committee and

being formed so stocks pulled back

slightly after that but people think ah

that could be some truth to this it

could be time to exit Cove at zero and

boy that would be great for Chinese

stocks but we also have to react to this

article from Nikki leaks because not

only are Chinese stocks doing well but

indices are green in the United States

and treasuries like the tenure are down

to

3.932 at the time of this recording

let's go ahead and jump in together into

this new Nikki leaks argue or article

that just came out

all right here we go fed meeting to

focus on interest rates coming path now

keep in mind over the last few Nikki

leaks reports we started with the first

report two Fridays ago which said the

FED is worried about creating a stock

market rally because that would loosen

Financial conditions and they don't want

that

in the next report

which was yesterday they talked about

this idea that we could see the terminal

rate for the Federal Reserve instead of

ending at 4.6 and at

5.25 or 5.5 percent well apparently that

wasn't blunt enough so now they're

getting a little bit more aggressive

and so here's the article

some officials recently began signaling

their desire to start reducing the size

of increases after this week in other

words we're expecting a 75 basis point

hike here on November 2nd tomorrow which

75 BP hikes are strong we haven't had

those since 1994 and then again of

course when we started just three months

ago and that's because fed officials are

worried about creating an unnecessarily

sharp slowdown they're trying to cool

the economy not throw it into a deep

freeze they say in this article so they

do need to slow the pace keeping in mind

that 50 basis points is still strong and

that the December meeting would be a

natural time to slow that pace of

increases because at the same time we're

going to be getting a new sep that

stands for summary of economic

projections we will not be getting a new

summary of economic projections in the

November meeting so hence the the

December meeting could be the perfect

time

to say all right we're going to go to 50

and now that we're going to 50 let's

raise that 4.6 terminal rate to say five

and a quarter or something else

see here you get arguments in this

article that going faster is now about

raising that terminal rate rather than

how big the rate hike is every single

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let's go you get this which are is

clearly from The Wall Street Journal and

not at all from the Federal Reserve but

you get these comments here about how

markets are split on whether or not

we're going to get a 75 or a 50 in

December which is okay it's okay for

markets to be somewhat split but usually

when the market uh is split the FED

likes to guide them into One Direction

and I think really what they're doing

here is guiding to the 50 basis point

hike for December and they're suggesting

that hey like some of their work is

starting to to actually function

domestic demand has slowed the housing

market is entering a sharp slowdown but

on the other hand you still have a

strong jobs Market there's still strong

consumer demand and pricing pressures

are still elevated and so now after we

get this November meeting remember I've

talked about this what are we going to

get we're going to get two CPI reports

and we're gonna get two jobs reports so

it's not just two more months of

economic data it's that this November

4th meeting I'm sorry November 2nd

meeting has like no data the next set of

data comes out on November 4th which is

the jobs report which is quite

interesting

that uh you know they set the schedule

this early for the November meeting but

oh well uh now they do talk about this

well the FED could slow in December this

I think is a red flag here

they could still get to six percent in

our forecast now I think this is the uh

the potentially Nikki leaks here being a

little unnecessarily aggressive but it

is possible that the FED does end up

hiking to five and a quarter to six

percent that doesn't mean we can't still

have an end of the year rally and I want

to be very clear about that because some

people are like Hey Kevin like you know

you made a video talking about an end of

the year rally but why would you do that

if you think the FED funds rate is going

to increase to higher levels it and I

want to distinguish that I think we can

have a rally

and we can have a very aggressive fed

next year as long as we see an end point

to when the FED is actually going to hit

some form of terminal rate and I think

markets are already convinced that 4.6

isn't going to be where we're going to

stop we're going to stop in excess of

five maybe five and a quarter percent

maybe we'll get to five and a half five

point seven five percent but I really

think we're going to get to six no but

then again you know a year ago I don't

think anybody thought we would have

gotten before

now I do think this is interesting many

investors this year have been eager to

interpret signs of a less aggressive

rate right rise Pace as a sign that it's

a pause or that a pause and increase

this is not far off but

a sustained Market rally risks undoing

the fed's work on the economy in other

words again this is the second time in a

row including if we go back to

yesterday's article this one cash Rich

consumers could mean higher interest

rates for longer in this article

actually and the first one and so for

all three parts of the Nikki leaks

articles we are hearing basically the

FED tell us that if we have a rally or

if we have strong earnings then that's

actually not what we want we and we just

this morning had Uber earnings which

even though they were unprofitable again

we uh we saw numbers that actually beat

so you're getting earnings that are

beating and now you've got the FED kind

of trying to thread this needle of uh we

don't really want your stocks to go up

because uh we kind of want y'all to

suffer and so I guess we'll just have to

keep keep writing these articles

although so far these articles are just

helping the market go up not down so I'm

not sure it's quite achieving what the

fed's goal is but it's interesting to

see the FED say hey you know what look

now it's not about how large it's about

how long we can last okay how long can

we keep the hikes going it's not about

how large every single move is

okay fed okay so far I think there's a

lot of optimism in markets right now

that's not to say I want to sit here and

call bottom it's not to say that I'm

going to mislead you and say I'm

shorting the market because I'm not I'm

pretty much all in on this sucker the

only short I got is a dollar short and

boy that has been a tough position I

still think it's going to do well

eventually but damn that's been a tough

position

anyway thank you so much for watching

check out the sponsor for the video and

folks we'll see in the next one goodbye