yikes. Trump JUST yoinked Tesla Stock & Elon Musk :(

whoa whoa whoa whoa what is going on

Tesla why why why why I I don't know how

I feel about this but refinitiv just

reported across the tape just moments

ago Trump transition team plans to kill

$77,500 consumer tax credit for electric

vehicles Tesla Representatives support

ending the evv subsidies this is not

good I actually don't love that now I

know the argument for the Tesla

Community the Tesla Community argument

and I respect it is hey you know what

this is actually a good thing because

what'll happen is you crush the

competition but the reality is the

competition's already in the freaking

toilet I mean Volkswagen threw a YOLO

$800 million over at rivan ain't going

to do a lot of good in my opinion that's

that then on the other side you've got

Lucid they're not really competition

Ford and GM they're reducing their

production of electric vehicles other

manufacturers making electric vehicles

in America the porch to taan who cares

you know the other they're no

competition Toyota's focusing on hybrids

and they're great in high quality but

let's be real Tesla dominates I take

delivery of my cybertruck well was

supposed to be four days ago and then it

was supposed to be yesterday but they

keep getting delayed in transit who

knows maybe people are like rushing to

buy Teslas before the end of the year oh

the Cyber truck doesn't get the $7,500

which is lame uh but um hey you know

this could actually be a really good

boost for Q4 sales like hurry up and get

your $7,500 tax credit sale ends soon

you know it's like coupon expiring below

get your Black Friday Tesla you know it

so like in the short term that's

actually kind of bullish but I I don't

really resonate with this idea that oh

you're definitely going to and we'll do

some numbers here in valuations in just

a moment but I don't actually resident

with the idea that killing the

$7,500 tax credit is a good thing for

Tesla I I don't think it's a good thing

at all for Tesla now we'll explain some

numbers and and what what I think the

actual impact of this is going to be

since this is just now breaking news but

something that I wanted to also mention

just because I think it's like free

value for you and really really good is

this morning I actually sent an alert

totally for free about tasla stock uh

and what I said was I'll actually just

quote it for you it's right here this is

what it I I wrote uh Tesla

31862 is in play today and must hold to

avoid a bleed to $300 if you want to get

this sort of morning briefing we call it

the alpha report you could sign up for

it totally for free at meetkevin.com

Alfa you could click the little yellow

button here if you're in the US or

Canada you'll get a text and an email

with your Alpha report which I think is

very valuable and what's really

remarkable is if you look at Tesla Tesla

opened ran to 329 and then basically

Consolidated right at my 31862 line and

even with this news that just came out

here just moments ago Tesla's still

holding that 31862 line roughly I hope

it does into the close but with that

said let's Now understand some

implications uh of uh this this cut

basically this EV tax cut uh so the

first thing is uh what I think we ought

to do is look at uh let's say the

typical cost of a model Y which I think

is your best purchase for a Tesla I also

want to announce that I've had like I

almost never pitch my Tesla referral

link but in the last 6 months actually

probably more like the last 3 months

I've had more Tesla signups through my

referral link that I don't pitch anyway

than in like I feel like the year or two

before that so I've definitely seen a

lot more of these moves here but uh I

guess you get $1,000 off a new Tesla uh

it's tesla.com referral Kevin

5689 uh I also have a shortcut it's me

so met Kevin me

kevin.com Tesla uh not meet Kevin just

met Kevin I I know that confuses people

too but anyway so let's understand this

if I go into order this now the Tesla's

now Tesla Kevin referral applied oh for

a model y oh that's cool all right

whatever so uh referral applied oh

that's really cool okay but anyway so

cash so I'm going to remove incentives

and I'm just going to go with the entry

level bro no dude's going to buy the

entry level

one ah it's got good range though

honestly I know it doesn't have the

speed but dude that range boost okay

okay okay just get the range boost one

it's at 337 versus 377 I honestly I mean

I'd be I don't know I like Fast I'd

probably charge it more I'd probably get

the fast one I mean I'm getting the

Cyber Beast okay so as I usually like to

say uh do as I say not as I

do don't do what I do do the opposite uh

but you have to know what my ideas are

this is why you got to sign up for the

alpha report it's free uh and and then

you can do the opposite I'm just kidding

do whatever you want just try to share

you value and perspective but anyway get

the long range it's $45,000 right uh FSD

is going to cost you

8K most people are going to want to get

the FSD the problem with this is now

you're at a $52,500 car $52,500 minus

the $7,500 tax credit puts you at about

$45,000 let's go compare now to a RAV

for

Toyota uh and I think honestly this is

going to push the used inventory a lot

cuz you look at a used Rav 4 you're

running somewhere around 30

$28,000 uh somewhere around there 28 to

32 is let's go to Tesla Model y used

let's just quickly see what we're

getting here yeah see these are very

similar uh to the used Rav 4 prices I

mean plenty of inventory here 15,000

mies that's nothing and a new Rav 4

starting at

28k oh wow I didn't know they were that

inexpensive hold on a sec so what's the

most expensive I hate all these options

good Lord 40,000 is the most expensive

hybrid Rav 4 now obviously it doesn't

have

FSD and so we'd really have to do this

without FSD at this point uh 44 yeah

you're basically par with the highest

end Rav 4 now actually the highest end

ra 4 is now a little less expensive

whereas previously that tax credit would

bring you down so now you could get you

know I mean what what what are the

emissions on this or uh not emissions

what's the um MPG on this miles per

gallon uh this gets about 41 as hybrid

that's actually pretty good for an SUV

right so you are going to get you're

basically what you're doing is you're

making it harder to transition people to

electric vehicles especially people with

r range anxiety which are going to be a

lot of

people so I do find this a little bit

unfortunate uh that now the Rav 4 is

actually more uh price how should I say

um aggressive uh than the lowest end

model Y without FSD I still think you're

better off getting used and I think one

of the implications of this is you're

going to either see a loss of sales to

other vehicle manufacturers or you're

going to see a loss of sales to uh used

vehicles this could be a boon for the

used vehicle Market though I'll give it

that and now what about the valuation of

Tesla I think that's probably kind of

important too so let's consider for a

moment with the valuation all right so

Revenue per vehicle this is very

important for Tesla because what we did

in the last analysis for Teslas we

actually boosted our energy section over

here to $26

billion uh I'm going to put a little

note here on the right uh let's get rid

of these these are all old tables so

let's put a note on the right uh we'll

put a

comment

and I prefer to just honestly insert

there we go that's what I like it when

they do these little Post-It note

thingies all right so 18 bill is Kevin's

estimate for energy 2026 26 bill is uh

Bloomberg uh

intelligence uh Ira credit limits could

uh reduce both both of these though I am

very bullish solar and batteries at a

good valuations uh like nase uh though

there is more downside possible for

n uh okay we did a huge analysis by the

way this morning in the course member

live stream on nphase I think we spent

like 40 minutes doing discounted cash

flow and future valuations coming up

with price targets and all that remember

when you're a course member you get life

time access that's over at Meek

kevin.com and so anytime we do a course

member live stream you get those all the

time uh but anyway uh my

opinion uh and keep in mind Tesla gets

not only like the consumer gets a credit

but also uh Tesla gets um a

manufacturing credit through the

inflation reduction act for both solar

and vehicles so it's very important so

the uh the Zev credits right Zev credits

are about 00 a vehicle let's assume uh

those stay for

now since it's uh us manufacturing right

losing

$7,500 uh of a tax credit

probably honestly this was probably

something that benefited the consumer to

about I would say

75% so it's probably about a 75% hit to

Tesla uh in in terms of how much they

have to reduce

pricing hits Tesla by 75% so

5,000 $

5,625 in price reductions

necessary uh to offset basically right

to offset okay well there's there are

few ways you could do this if I'm Tesla

what I would

do uh I would just drop the price of FSD

to 3K and keep uh vehicle pricing the

same uh and keep doing financing

incentives uh I think those sell more

cars than just dropping the price of the

vehicles however that is going to reduce

margin uh we'll hit

margin so what we're going to

do is I'm going to leave average vehicle

selling price no you know what let's go

ahead and give half let's reduce the

average vehicle selling price in half

just because you might get some

downshift to the three versus the Y so

we'll put a little bit of a downshift

here and then we're going to do about a

$3,000 downshift in margin which right

now your margin is uh on a $440,000

vehicle it's about

18% I'm going to take oh gosh $3,000 is

um takes off a lot you can't take that

off all of the margin that it just

wouldn't it would it it would have the

margin no

way yeah well hold on let's let's logic

this out because you know that's

actually concerning you're better off

taking it off the top than you are

taking it off the bottom

line that's interesting let's logic this

for a moment together

okay so uh if lack of credit means uh

Tesla has to I mean I I don't know how

much it really matters because it's the

same money top or bottom line right uh

if lack of credit means Tesla has to

absorb and this is my estimate it could

be less absorb $

5,625 of um pain

basically

then uh either average selling price

down or margin

down margin probably goes down because

of the Zev Rev

uh zero emission Vehicle tax credit on

manufacturing we're assuming stays at

this point worth $1800 so that's a

bottom that's the bottom line portion

and your margin on the vehicles right

now at $1 18% at

$40,000 is

$7,200 uh 18% margin is about uh

$7,200 per vehicle so tax credit

contributes 18 00 ided

7200 what is that 18 / 72 is 12 uh about

12% of uh

margin without credit closer to if I

take that

out closer to about 16%

margin okay that's without the

manufacturing credit but if I have to

absorb the entire $5,600 at the Top Line

it's possible uh let's let's assume then

5625 is a

Topline

problem okay then unfortunately we're

going to do this we're going to leave

margin at 18% we're going to take $

5,625 literally Off The Top

Line let's see what that does uh first

just so you know what Baseline is

Baseline valuation I have right now at

50 for a manufacturing company is

$272 it's at about 318 right now like we

talked about in the meat Kevin Alpha

report uh which means you do have

downside unfortunately right now based

on where the pricing is but let's go

to now we're going to reduce

this let's see here we're going to

reduce

this uh 40

ah yeah okay we already did that plus

40,000 there we go

34 yeah I mean you could see this either

in model 3 moves uh or in you know

people going from basically model wise

to model 3s or just you know they sell

fewer cars until they hit this price so

if I go down to 343 this is vehicle

deflation it could happen that reduces

our stock price by is that about 30

bucks

yeah about

$28

272

minus $244

$28 so let's leave a comment here uh

reducing

from let's go with 40K ASP to

34 whatever we said uh

375 equals um 20 $8 of share price

Redux so it's not

horrible but this is what you would

probably see in order to maintain growth

this is to maintain growth not to grow

more so it does it does slow

vehicle adoption down a bit uh that's

not

ideal now uh this is with the Bloomberg

estimate on energy and this assumes

that margin stays

18% let's now

go uh you know uh $28 hit $28 hit to

price assumes uh minus 5625 for uh

$7,500

loss uh goes to Tesla off top but keeps

[Music]

margin at 18% if we lose Zev credits we

go to

16%

margin 16% margin now margin is usually

where it hurts we're going to go from

244 to 220 that would take another $24

off uh that's another $24 off stock

price so to

me we have not heard that we're going to

lose the Zev credits so I'm just going

to leave that for right now to me you're

probably you know you want to be

sub I mean if it's 200

bucks that's that's a nice return over a

couple years you know 10% each absent

obviously a recession you know if you

have a recession you you do have some

problems now previously I've been of the

impression or mindset rather that you

know Tesla uh would

potentially how should I say it

um be recession resilient and I want to

talk about that recession resilience a

little

bit

recession

resilience uh Works uh when

your customers are

resilient in recession in 2022 I thought

uh Tesla was recession

Brazilian

because of the extra savings you know 25

to 55y old dudes had and higher net

worth

today that same group that group that

cohort uh which obviously I'm a part of

right

um they are

unfortunately are more at risk of AI

related

layoffs and consolidations in um uh

corporate

expenses and wage

deflation this

hurts uh the ability to uh the ability

or desire to spend uh on uh butter uh

vehicles or butter right vehicle uh

expenses uh this is why

uh this morning uh fed

Barkin

said uh if

Market corrects higher net worth

individuals may spend less uh and they

are the ones propping up spending right

now making the economy look strong see

that's these These are problematic

things uh so not good not good

but I know elon's pitching the idea that

this is not a big deal for

Tesla and I know you don't want a Rav 4

compared to a

Tesla because otherwise you wouldn't be

watching this video this

long

uh but but we are not everyone you know

that's something I think with it's often

easy to forget when we're looking at um

stocks is is we just think of the world

really around us as being exactly like

us uh but I don't believe that uh and I

really really implore that Tesla must

maintain 318 otherwise like I said I

mean I'll show you what we wrote on that

Alpha report this morning uh in terms of

what the price trajectory is uh if we do

lose that level uh and again I'm not I'm

not suggesting that we will I'm not

trying to be a bear

here but take a look at

this I am a bear I don't want to be a

bear I really I cannot wait to stop

being a bear I I hate being a bear I

feel like a like I just want to be

honest but I feel like a bear I don't

want to be a bear I'd rather you know be

at 400 bucks and be in it with you and

be like yeah we're going to the Moon

anyway I said if we uh if we lose okay

so I said 318 is in play today and must

hold to avoid a bleed to 300 yesterday

the stock ran up 4.5% at open it was

sold down to less than 70 BP of gains on

the day this is a sign of profit taking

in my opinion see how coin puked off 320

the same thing can happen to Tesla with

coin under 300 psychological line and

244 is back in play but Kevin QQQ is at

all-time highs yes Tesla's 4.1% weight

in the NASDAQ contributed 13 points

alone to QQQ uh and I do the math for

you so literally Tesla propped QQQ from

500 to 513 single hand ly if Tesla

retraces The Q's lose 500 that will

psychologically scream Market peaked and

one stock can do that Tesla volatility

in July at uh Tesla volatility is at

July

highs so if we don't hold 318 we're

going to bleed to 300 uh probably like

295 to 300 in that range so guess we'll

see what happens anyway uh thanks for

watching this remember meetkevin.com

Alpa to get your free Al Alpha report uh

meetkevin.com Alpha and I'll link the

Tesla referral code down below if you

want to get a Tesla before the E TX

credit expires thanks so much bye we not

advertise these things that you told us

here I feel like nobody else knows about

this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see go congratulations

man you have done so much people love

you people look up to you Kevin PA there

financial analist and YouTuber meet

Kevin o great to get your take