Tesla Stock EXPLODES | But...

folks the Tesla stock explosion is

happening we've been talking about it

for a while now the question though

isn't what do we do to Pat ourselves on

the back the question is what does this

mean going forward first it's worth

noting I've been tweeting about this for

a while at real meet Kevin on X I said

on uh May 21st there appears to be a

short squeeze that's starting to get

that's getting started will hit $220

very soon I also tweeted that once we

break the $200 psychological sell order

book we'll probably pop up to 220 after

that now of course we've got a

deliveries Catalyst tomorrow honestly

the Catalyst doesn't even really matter

whether whether the deliveries are

somewhere between 420 which would be

funny or somewhere between 440 it

doesn't really matter what matters is

that the worst is behind Tesla you're

going back to growth yes year-over-year

declines but quarter over quarter gains

we're going back to growth we're going

back into that strong economy and folks

are finally looking saying huh Tesla's

pretty dang cheap compared to everything

else that's so dang expensive so you're

starting to get upgrades like Wells

Fargo oh maybe the worst is over still a

little underweight but uh it's not as

bad as it used to be exactly the bad

news is baked in it's the same thing

that we saw on the volatility candles

the volatility sticks were extremely low

on Tesla we made a video on it we talked

about it the first uh maybe like there

was somewhere around it was the first

week of June or like June 9th or

something like that June 10th where like

volatility is ridiculously low his

historically Tesla has gained 1.2% per

day for the next 2 months roughly I'm

roughly estimating here you could watch

the video that I made on that either in

the course member live stream or the

later video we did on the uh Public Live

but when volatility hits such a low

Tesla goes up thereafter and you don't

even need many catalysts to make it

happen so I don't really care about

deliveries tomorrow in fact if anything

we kind of just pre-priced in a lot of

the deliveries news so it's entirely

possible that no matter what deliver

news we get tomorrow for Tesla the stock

just ends up moving down I mean in order

for us to actually move up after a 6%

Tesla day you'd really have to beat all

of the estimates if you beat all of the

estimates tomorrow and you come in with

some like crazy like oh my gosh it's

going to be you know 450 460 number hats

off let's go Tesla we're going to 300 I

don't think that's happening I think the

data and the analysts are probably uh

you know the range will probably end up

being right I'm not saying the analysts

or usually right I'm just saying the

range will probably be right we'll have

delivery somewhere between 415 and

435,000 is my guess if I had a pick I'd

go midp point I go 425 and quite frankly

5K cars plus or minus in either

direction even 10K cars in either

direction makes a lick of a difference

for Tesla it does not matter I actually

kind of hope that they come in a little

soft so I can buy myself some swing

trade calls see there are day trade

calls where you could try to pull

momentum like we did this morning on the

market open live stream where you're

looking for momentum and then there are

swing trade calls which are usually

fundamental-based so you do sort of 90

180 day swing trades I usually prefer 45

to 90 days for my swing trades and

intraday for day trading uh so uh with

that said for Tesla after we tax loss

harvested in uh my fund which this is

not an advertisement for my fund it's

just so you know I'm putting my money

where my mouth is after we tax loss

harvested and we went back in where we

left

we're like way up now and our allocation

is pretty dang heavy in the thing which

is awesome and again this isn't a pitch

for that it's just simply to talk about

it from a fundamental point of view not

a Trader's Point of View been very

excited about Tesla so Tesla probably

right now is somewhere I I don't know

exactly okay again it's not a pitch for

it uh probably somewhere around 16 to

18% of an allocation uh that went down

for to zero for a period of time which

is great we avoided the mess from 170 to

140 tax loss harvested back in boom now

we're up okay great so the question now

becomes Where Do We Go From Here well

first I'd like to look at the inverted

yield curve this is something that I

started paying attention to uh just this

morning I mean the inverted yield curve

I've been paying attention to for a

while but there's something I noticed

this morning this morning I noticed that

the inverted yield curve the twos over

the 10 is starting to steepen

substantially we've moved about 18 basis

points in uh really the last like six

days

that's a big move at the same time we're

seeing rates going up so you're getting

this sort of bearish steepener on the

yield curve and we've had this happen

before we had this happen a few times we

had this happen I'll give you some dates

here and you can look it up yourself and

compare it to the stocks that you like

December 15th through January 15th

September of last year 20th through

October 6th July 24th through October or

August 6 during those periods of the

steepening the reeep in of the yield

curve what we actually ended up seeing

was the NASDAQ was flat roughly flat in

other words even though you had this

shortterm steepening you didn't actually

see that much pain in the market so

shorter periods of steepening not that

big of a deal it's when you get these

extended periods of steepening that's

when things get a little frustrating for

example if you look all the way from uh

the beginning H it's probably yeah well

let me see here if you look between July

third of last year and about October

31st that was painful that was basically

NASDAQ correction territory and you had

a 3month period of steepening but if you

get these little fluctuations of

steepening that only last a week or two

weeks it's usually not a big deal it

only becomes a big deal if the

steepening continues so this now gives

us a path forward something that we

could think about in terms of all right

how do we set up our portfolio for

investing and I'm going to draw this out

to make this as simple as possible

because I understand we start hearing

about yield curves and all this crazy

stuff things can start getting a little

bit confusing all right so here's what

we're going to do we're going to write

down on a piece of paper a game plan and

this is this is my take okay so this is

not personalized Financial advice this

is some dude on the internet making an

opinion all right if the yield curve

deepening we're going to call it remains

under 14 days so we got another week to

go of this you're probably going to buy

the dip on a diversified uh set of ETFs

that or you know or whatever you want

you buy the dip on whatever you want

again I'm not pitching anything in this

video uh so buy the dip on whatever you

want and uh enjoy the fact that you're

getting some you know relaxation here on

some of the ones that have run really

well some of the names that I really

like right now uh I really like apple

Amazon and Tesla right now I don't love

Nvidia as much but I still have some

Nvidia exposure but Amazon apple and

Tesla I think are your your heavy

weights I think uh Amazon is going to

benefit substantially off of artificial

intelligence by actually running a more

efficient ship I think apple is going to

benefit off on device Ai and I think

Tesla has the best and most real AI that

exists now you know uh sort of my tier

tws I might consider something like

trade desk or paler for soft Ware

directional plays that that could

benefit but these are options that I

think of now keep in mind something that

some have been asking about is hey do is

is it still time to hedge Bitcoin uh as

sort of a way to hedge the market well I

mentioned a few weeks ago that Bitcoin

was likely to head to 58,000 it went to

58,000 and it bounced right off of that

and it actually is up pretty nicely in

the last 24 hours here so I think in

order for you to go bearish you really

need this yield curve steepening yield

curve steepening to occur for more than

14 days if you get that yield curve

steepening for more than 14 days that's

when I'm going to be looking at some

form of a BTC short again or a BTC short

proxy you know like something else that

falls when Bitcoin Falls like coinbase

uh and that's also where I'm going to be

a little bit more interested in uh maybe

increasing cash position right because

over here you're by the dib over here

you're increasing cash it just depends

on how long this steepening process is

going to last so uh that's something I'm

very closely paying attention to now as

far as Tesla individually as long as we

stay in this yield curve uh period over

here we're we're we're not steepening

that much maybe we start going back to

the zigzags that we're used to uh here's

my projection for Tesla so uh let's draw

it like this okay so you've got 88 is

over here you got 71 right here now you

do have Tesla earnings as well A lot's

going to come down to those delivery

figures but Tesla earnings date I want

to say it's like July 17th okay there it

is July

17th okay so right in this window right

here 72 right in this window you're

still going to have some level of fear

uh and

uncertainty mostly because people are

going to be worried that even if we get

good delivery numbers or if we have bad

delivery numbers everybody's going to be

wondering okay what's margin margin

margin margin margin okay my guess is

that the time to go YOLO calls is right

here YOLO calls uh right between that

earnings date so really like the 718

which would be the next day and 88 now

it's possible that after deliveries

tomorrow if you're like bullish Tesla

you kind of want a bad number tomorrow

or like a number the Market's going to

respond to bearishly because what I

would consider is longer calls because

we should be relatively clear with our

Catalyst I understand earnings are

coming up but we should be able to take

the numbers from the last earnings

report apply them to this one and assume

that margins if anything have improved

rather than disimproved now In fairness

we don't know how much uh those

financing offers cost so that's a risk I

do think that commodity prices have

started to fall so I'm going to fact

check myself on that uh since their

February High yeah they definitely have

uh take a look at this right here so uh

you actually sorry not the February High

you started rising in February you

peaked out in May now it's a little

unfortunate because that's the middle of

Q2 right here so you probably did have a

little bit higher cost here sadly let me

look at lithium prices quickly and if I

look at these I'm going to get an idea

of how those battery margins have been

in so I'm going to zoom out a bit

here okay yeah I mean if anything we've

just gone down on uh on these you could

see right here let's zoom out a little

bit there we go I'll hide myself for a

moment there we go so yeah capped out

peaked out really at the end of q1 it's

sort of been down since then end of June

you really had a nice fall on lithium

pricing so hopefully we'll see some of

this flow through on Tesla margins it

makes me bullish I think the Bottom's

already been priced in a long time ago

obviously the chart already shows us

that but we've been talking about that

as well so uh that's a little bit of a

strategy that I that I look at again I

think you buy the dip as long as we have

a yield curve steepening for less than

14 days let me give you the exact date

again as to when we started we started

steepening on the 25th today we're on

the 7th so you're only about 6 days in

once you get about 14 days you might

start getting a little bit more fear

pricing into the market and mind you

that when uh the yield curve seens for

less than 14 days yes you get a little

bit of a flattening in the cues we've

already seen that here the flattening of

the qes it's exactly what's been going

on what we just don't want is this

longer term dip that we had uh over here

see this sort of 3month dip over here in

the cues this is what happens when you

have a longer term yield curve inversion

uh or rather yield curve steepening

we've been inverted in the yield curve

you know on the yield curve for quite a

while now I'll tell you exactly when we

inverted just so you have that data we

inverted back on oh wow it's been 2

years July 1st 2022 it's been two years

to the date so we are now celebrating

two years of yield curve inversion

pretty remarkable so uh again to to

bottom line my strategy going forward as

long as the yield curve stays down my my

long-term portfolio is by the dip Amazon

Apple Tesla some trade desk Palante here

for trading I'm going to be interested

in longer calls if we get some

negativity tomorrow by the dip it's

possible depends how I want to play this

it's possible that at open though you go

puts and you sort of ride the wave down

but that would be more of on a day trade

right uh otherwise I think uh some

longer calls could be interesting some

YOLO calls could be very interesting

between the earnings date and uh Robo

taxi day uh and then I do think you're

going to end up having having a a sell

the news after the robo taxi day you

almost always do but then again you know

if everybody's expecting it maybe it

doesn't actually end up happening so I

don't know uh but those are my thoughts

on the market right now on the bull bear

scale I still put myself around 6 and a

half on the bull bear scale which is

still 6 and A2 maybe 6.7 nothing's

really changed over the last week so uh

and and really the the whole political

landscape I don't think is going to make

much of a difference to the market for a

hot minute it's going to be a while we

still got you know almost 5 months to go

before the election which is crazy to

think about actually we do we have 5

months and like 6 days which is wild so

anyway these are just some general

thoughts on the market some strategies

that I'm thinking and hopefully this is

helpful to you none of this is obviously

personalized Financial advice I hope you

can go make money out there love you all

thank you so much for watching we'll see

you in the next one goodbye and good

luck cannot advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this well try a little

advertising in seeo congratulations man

you have done so much people love you

people look up to you Kevin PA financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

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