The Oldest Market Signal on Earth Is Screaming | The Gold–Silver Ratio Warning Investors Ignore

Let us start

with a little bit

of uncomfortable

truth.

Some of the most powerful

market signals are not new. They're not

they're not complex.

They're not fashionable. They are

ancient.

What you're looking at on the screen is

the gold to silver ratio.

track continuously back to 1869

and conceptually back more than 5,000

years, making it the oldest continuously

observed exchange relationship in human

economic history. Again, we're looking

at the ratio, a relative number, not an

absolute. So, the chart is not about

gold, it's not about silver, it's about

fear, liquidity, confidence, and

monetary stress. And today this ratio is

flashing a signal that investors have

learned repeatedly to ignore.

Let's start by explaining exactly what

this chart is telling you because

misunderstanding it leads to disastrous

conclusion.

The gold to silver ratio answers one

question. How many ounces of silver does

it take to buy 1 ounce of gold?

If the ratio is high, then gold is

strong relative to silver.

So let's now here's the key insight from

for most people miss. Gold equal what?

Monetary fear asset.

Silver is monetary but also industrial

growth assets. Why? Well because you

know you don't you don't use gold in

anything. It's too soft.

But silver on the other hand is used for

lots of industrial applications. So when

the ratio rises sharply investors are

abandoning growth exposure.

Liquidity is tightening and risk is

being repriced. The economy is under

stress. When the ratio rises,

meaning gold is strong to silver. When

the ratio collapses, growth expectations

return,

meaning what? Well, we're going to grow,

so we need silver. Industrial demand

revives, liquidity expands, and risk

appetite recovers. So remember, silver

is industrial. Gold is

monetary asset.

This is history. It's not opinion here.

I'm just telling you exactly what we're

saying. We're not nothing to do with me.

So

the the the stable money era from 1869

to 1914

right on the left you could see the

chart

the ratio going up

in in 1869 the ratio sits around 15 to1

that random is not random for century

monetary system naturally anchored the

goals of a relationship between 12 and

16,

you know, reflecting scarcity,

uh, mining cost, monetary circulation,

industrial demand.

This is the gold to silver ratio.

Remember, we take the price of gold and

we divide by the price of silver.

And uh this was the um 1869. This was

the era of sound money, hard settlement,

limited leverage, low financialization.

Volatility was low because money itself

was stable,

1930.

Look at the spike from 1930.

What's going on there? Well,

the ratios

surged upward of 98 to1 by 1939. Why?

Because silver collapsed,

because policy intervened violently,

gold was repriced by executive degree

decree.

Just want to remind my subscribers and

my members that in 1933, what happened

in 1933

the government forced some of members

said that they basically stole the

money. No, the government didn't steal

the gold. What the government said is

you have to

you have to tender all your gold that

you have at $20 an ounce. That's what

happened in 1933.

And when they did that

shortly after the government repriced

gold to $35,

$35 an ounce. So you could imagine that

people were pretty upset. But there was

a there was a whole history behind the

fact that they wanted to take that gold

from the people uh by basically

repricing the dollar. But we'll we'll

explain that later on. But there was a

lot of deflation going on. So during

that time gold surged as a store of

sovereign fear. Silver lag because

industrial demand collapsed. This is the

first lesson. Gold to silver spikes are

not bullish signals. They are distress

signals.

Could see where we are today. I mean

let's not get there. But look at the

shot to the right.

So then of course came Bretton Woods

with the artificial stability.

From 1941 onward the ratio trends lower.

Why? Because the global man monetary

system was artificially pegged. Now I

want to remind you all that what

happened during Breton Woods

this was the end of the war. the the

Russians, the English and the Americans

got together and they say, "Okay, what

is going to be the new world order

and basically, you know, they looked at

the English and they say, "Well, not

you. You you're old schooled.

It's going to be the US." And this was

the dollar became this the the reserve

currency.

I mean, at that time, the US won the

war.

So the system was artificially pegged.

Gold anchored currencies. Capital flows

were controlled. Volatility was

suppressed. What I mean by currency is

basically what they did was

they they pegged the the the dollar to

gold. They say fine, we'll make it the

reserve of currency, but you know, gold

has to stay behind the dollar because

it's only a piece of paper at the end of

the day. Said sure, let's do it. And of

course, I don't have to remind you what

happened in 1970 when Nixon said, "You

know what? Remove the gold. Let's just

run it by itself." But that's a

different that's a different story. So

this this this 1945, this was engineered

stability, not organic equilibrium. The

ratio decline not because risk vanished,

but because it was forced underground.

Of course, in 1971,

mentioned before, right? See, are we

collapsing there? In 1971, One vertical

line, one structural break. The US

dollar is severed from gold. From this

moment onward, money becomes policy.

Credit replaces savings, leverage

replaces productivity, and volatility

becomes structural. You need to

understand that when they removed

the gold from the dollar, they meaning

Nixon, this was a bold move. This was a

this was akin to what the US did this

year with this huge amount of tariffs.

They say, you know, this is not going to

work. You know, you're going to create

inflation. Everything is going to

collapse. And it did for a while, but

then it the stock market, right, last

year went down quite a bit, but then

they said, but everybody's going to

everybody's going to be upset. They're

going to basically pass on the cost to

the consumer. But forget that. the the

the the other countries are going to

react and they are going to price you

out and they're going to you're going to

have a trade war and you did not have a

trade war and inflation really didn't go

out that high.

It was a ballsy move but it seems to be

working. Now, of course, depends which

side on the aisle you're in, you're

going to say, "Well, there's a lot of

inflation going on."

Yeah, but for those that could afford

it, it's it's manageable and it's not

everywhere.

U the only thing is that um the the

market collapsed for a while but it

recovered.

So it worked

and this is exactly this is exactly what

happened in 1970

when Nixon did that they said this is

never going to work and it did work and

that's when the US really became a

superpower.

So

at that time in the 70s the gold silver

ratio became free to signal reality

again and it does violently see how it

reacts.

So now post 1971 the volatility regime

from 1970s on forward the ratio becomes

unstable spikes becomes larger mean

reversion becomes slower. You know you

you revert to the average and extreme

becomes more frequent. Why? Because fiat

systems amplify the stress instead of

absorbing it. Each major spike

corresponds to recession, crisis, credit

deterioration, liquidity, panic. This

ratio does not predict timing. It s it

it diagnoses systemic stress already

underway. That's what it does.

Look what happens in 2020.

the ratio explodes to

125 to1, the highest level in modern

history.

This was fear, right? We're going to be

basically and don't forget and this is

why I want uh for my subscribers and I

want you to join because what we do on a

daily basis we talk about these things

and and I tell you what I'm doing to

take advantage of it because right now

we're pretty high

and there are ways for you to take

advantage of this. Now this is not

inflation.

This is fear. Gold was hoarded. Silver

was abandoned. Industrial demand

collapsed overnight. That was not

bullish. This was systemic trauma.

2024, the unfinished story, right? Fast

forward to November 2024, the ratio sits

around near 84. That is not normal. That

is not equilibrium. That is a late cycle

stress despite equity indices near high.

I know

there's

volatility is suppressed.

AI optimism is basically the narrative.

And this ratio is telling you liquidity

is fragile. Growth expectations are

hollow. Risk is mispriced. Historically,

this level only persists when something

is unresolved. Look at the chart.

We are very high. I mean, we're not 2020

high.

Um,

but

we high. the ratio I'm talking this is a

ratio remember and a high ratio what

does this so so so does this mean for

investors

it does not mean buy silver tomorrow

gold will outperform forever

what this says is the system is unstable

beneath the surface this this channel is

not about telling you look it's going up

by it's going to go higher because no

one knows that

But when you're crossing the street, I'm

telling you, look left and look right.

High ratios of gold to silver mean

capital 6 safety, not growth. Industrial

demand is weak. Credit cycles are

tightening. Monetary credibility

is questioned.

Of course, it's question. Look what's

going on with the Fed. They're telling

the Fed that u you're lowering the

rates, but are you truly independent?

Look at the 10-year yield. It's higher

than the Fed fund rate. It means that

the Treasury markets do not believe what

the Fed is doing. They believe there's

an inflation pumped into it. And I'm

going to do a video on inflation to show

you. So, historically, these pairs

resolved in only two ways.

Two ways. Growth collapse. silver stays

um stays weak and reflation shock silver

violently catches up. But what never

happens is a soft landing.

So in closing, I will say this. The

the gold silver ratio does not shout. It

does not trend on social media. It does

not care about the narratives. It has

outlived empires, currencies,

government, central bank. And right now

it's telling you this system is under

strain whether markets admit it or not.

So ignore it at your own risk.