the truth about my channel

hey everyone kevin here after the

california gubernatorial campaign we had

visions of creating something awesome

and this is separate from the series a

thing that we've got going on that's the

newest latest and greatest uh iteration

of what our plans are which we've been

working on for quite a while now over

the course of about a year but in

addition to that plan that longer term

plan we had these visions of creating a

stock brokerage and offering new

features like fractional options and

auto wheeling on options and so many

really neat features that just are

missing in the broader stock brokerage

realm right now i mean think about auto

wheeling so cool uh now anyway since

then some of our ideas have actually

started coming into the market so we

wonder like oh can somebody hear about

ideas but either way it's fine like

these are things that are missing and

needed but i'm a huge fan of data i'm a

massive data fan and i try to make most

of my decisions based on what research i

have because that way i can support my

thesis and then i don't have to waver on

what it is that i'm doing of course if

data changes then i would be stupid not

to react right well in the three months

after the gubernatorial campaign where

we were evaluating the viability of

creating a stock brokerage we noticed a

few things and the things that we

noticed are lessons for what we can

actually glean for things like the

market going forward so what we noticed

in those three months is revenues at

other stock brokerages which are public

you know we could see these we can read

their earnings calls we're stagnating

and losses were mounting employee costs

soared and the ability of companies like

so far to find new customers became more

difficult and this is true of many

brokerages whether it's public or

robinhood or whatever so fast cost per

acquisition for example the customer

went up to 800

per customer and then they even bought

naming rights of a stadium in los

angeles to increase their appeal to

start trying to draw in more customers

when we saw this we realized comparing

to experience

let's take a look at the sign ups that

we're getting for companies like weeble

or public which is data that we have and

we noticed in the last three months of

2021 this is before the sort of crash of

2022

even the last six months of 2021 we were

seeing a relative straight decline in

the number of not only people clicking

sign up links but also folks actually

proceeding through with the process of

depositing money and actually signing up

even today even though tastytrades is

offering y'all 200 dollars when you sign

up at medkevin.com tasty and deposit two

thousand dollars

this

affiliate partnership which i think has

incredible uh a potential and is a

phenomenal company tasty trees

phenomenal company has seen a fraction

of the type of sign ups that we would

ordinarily see when there was a new kind

of special from let's say weeble towards

the middle to end of last year we're

getting maybe five percent of the clicks

that we used to on a new integration

like this so for me

the leading indicator that we saw the

second half of last year was somewhat of

a tell that oh the brokerage industry is

going to start having some serious

problems and i lost faith uh you know at

higher prices thankfully of in companies

like robin hood because of the data that

we were seeing and so these were leading

indicators of well that demise and so we

ended our brokerage plans we also sold

any positions that we had in brokerages

because we're like

we're seeing it we're literally seeing

the data and since we sold robinhood for

example has fallen another 40 that's

down like 55 year-to-date sofa has

fallen over 60 percent and there are

leading indicators in statistics that we

have in other areas as well one of the

present leading indicators that i'm

finding is people are becoming more

choosy in what they spend money on for

example life insurance sales with meet

kevin or mattkevin.com life total clicks

are down like 80 when i pitch it so for

example when i mention hey get life

insurance in as low as 5 minutes you

could sign up using apple pay or android

pay it's the life insurance loan that i

use it's easy to sign up for whatever

whatever

the same pitch with the same frequency

let's say if i pitched it three times a

day over the course of three different

videos compared to a three times

mentioned uh maybe a year ago

the clicks are down 80 on that the

conversions are still roughly the same

but the clicks are down now i realize

we're not in a pandemic anymore so this

might not be the best example but in my

opinion it's a little bit of an

indicator that hey first we're seeing

people less interested in stocks

obviously makes sense but we started

seeing them before

the stock market actually fell for five

months straight we were seeing it a lot

in november and december which was

really interesting because november was

a rally month

but that rally month had nowhere near

the sign ups we had during the meme

stock era of january 2021 which again to

some degree also makes sense because

everybody was getting rich quick and so

everybody wanted to sign up for that but

we did have some pretty remarkable rally

times in november still fraction of the

sign ups though so what about course

sales well core sales were strongest in

january the month that i sold i think

this is people wanting to make sure that

even if there's information that's

contrarian

they want to hear the information that

i'm researching and i always try to give

a digested version of what i'm

researching especially the course

members i go through probably

50 hedge fund letters every single day

institutional research i mean there's

there's a lot i just can't make videos

on all of it i try to consolidate as

much as i can but it's so much easier to

just talk about it and of course member

live streams but anyway course sales

were strongest in january when i sold

despite the incessant hate from some

people but anyway uh you know i i sold

and i advised of dark days ahead and

suggested that all of 2022 was probably

going to be a quite hellish year core

sales were unsurprisingly weakest in

april when the market gave up its two to

three week rally post or the march rally

uh that came after the fomc meeting and

we kind of really realized that crap we

are in a legit bear market that's going

to last for a while right it's the fifth

month of stock market declines today

we're in the six months of stock market

declines uh crypto is plummeting right

it's painful however recently we've been

identifying some cracks in the real

estate industry and there's been a new

shift here it's been a substantial

interest in our real estate programs

real estate sales have tripled when we

consider bundled real estate for those

of you looking at zero the millionaire

programs and sales of the do yourself

property management and rental

renovations group have quadrupled

since you know when we consider bundles

as well and so while sales and the

stocks and psychology money group are

still strong they're still down like 28

to 30 percent again still strong but it

makes a lot of sense to me smart people

are saying crap i don't know a lot about

real estate but we're less anxious about

stocks right now because we're kind of

bouncing along what feels like a bottom

okay great but if there's a crash coming

in real estate that's even half as bad

as 2008 i don't want to miss out on

building wealth there and i think a lot

of people are saying like where can i

get an education in real estate it's

like well you can't get an education in

college in real estate in my opinion

like you're not going to get like how to

find wedge deals in college you

generally have few choices because a lot

of programs that exist are like how to

flip real estate let me just say it here

for free i mean like i talk about this

all the time but in a bear market as

prices are going down the last thing you

want to do is flip real estate this is

why by the way redfin and companies like

opendoor are just getting absolutely

decimated in the stock market right now

because the worst time to acquire

properties to flip them is in a bear

market especially for real estate you

want to try to buy closer to the bottom

rent them out huddle them and then wait

for a longer bull market in real estate

to come back let your renovations kind

of wear a bit because you can still get

really good price for renovations that

are five years old as opposed to brand

new right so i kind of like letting

renovations wear a little bit but anyway

that's some more deeper philosophy that

we talk about and you know zero to mill

and the do-it-yourself property

management but anyway so we what we're

seeing is we're seeing

individuals make decisions that are more

investments into their opportunities to

take advantage of market opportunities

and this makes sense to us in terms of

why we're seeing such a boost in real

estate sales or property management

sales and we're seeing a decline in

signups for affiliate partnerships for

let's say new brokerages or even the

frugality that we're seeing in terms of

life insurance now what about some

forward-looking information well this is

where i like to consider sponsors you've

obviously seen integrations for me from

companies i like like public and

wealthfront and ftx and upstart and more

it the thing is for me personally like i

won't take these partnerships from these

crazy nfts that are offering lots of

money to pitch their new project or

whatever i just immediately delete these

but also i got offered twenty thousand

dollars to make one coinbase video right

and like within a week of me talking on

my channel about how

their ceo is not communicating properly

to to their users and they just slip in

a line in their sec filings about how

user deposits may not be protected

during a bankruptcy of coinbase it's

this kind of cia that's just like like

what what's going on here like are you

guys seeing writing on the wall you know

the last thing i want to see is

companies talking about bankruptcy more

in addition to uh oh by the way you know

customers right anyway you're not

protected right like that's that's

concerning and they said may not so i

don't want to like slander them here or

whatever but the point is like that's

just not a partnership that i was

willing to take at the time so i denied

that sponsorship i

lost some respect for coinbase but and i

also see the dealing with a lot of

regulatory issues like sec uncertainty

but i also read the sec rules and then

saw how the ceo talked about them and

i'm like well that's not really what it

says but okay whatever so i went off on

that on twitter but anyway uh now while

i don't have i haven't yet at least had

any sponsor deals evaporate i'm hearing

word through the grapevine that

sponsorships are evaporating for other

youtube channels i've heard from

multiple different advertising sources

whom i'm not going to mention obviously

for confidentiality's sake here but the

industry is slowing that vendors are

canceling contracts or not renewing that

budgets are tightening up so that's

somewhat of a concerning trend which is

the opposite of what i thought at the

beginning of the year because i had a

really good suspicion that consumer

discretionary and retail was going to

get destroyed and it did this is why i

didn't buy it costco target etsy none of

it amazon don't want it like get it out

of here so i did not want any consumer

discretionary that ended up being a

really good bet because consumer

discretionary in retail like the world

retail index is down like 29 here today

technology is down 24 so i mean there's

a small delta there but it's still it's

it's a clear delta like that was obvious

where i was wrong was i thought

companies would advertise more because

of a buildup of inventory and rather

than drop prices i figured they would

try to compete more in the market by

advertising more to get more customers

however we weren't expecting the

potential of a recession uh certainly we

weren't really talking about this as

substantially as we are now back in like

december when i was talking about

advertising going up because in a

recession

obviously one of the first things to get

cut is advertising so it makes sense as

we started talking more about oh a

recession could happen advertising goes

bye-bye

okay not great but now we're actually

starting to see that and i think it's a

warning sign for everybody that if you

have a job

remember you could lose your job

if you're a creator and you rely on

advertising contracts for income you

could lose your contracts and so this is

why it's so freaking important right now

that make as much money as you can while

you still can get out of margin get out

of debt and be a survivor you know you

don't have to be a member of my courses

but i'm confident my course members are

going to have higher odds of massive

success and surviving you know when

things change we get out of positions

that we don't like we don't do memes

there's little speculation pumping up

none of that that's not the purpose of

what what we stand for as a group we

stand for true debate and there are

bulls and there are bears and the people

who post really good analytical

arguments and i love it and i like

highlighting those in our course member

live streams so there's a strong

dialogue between these bulls and bears

shout out to some of the best for

dialogue and helping and i'm not going

to be able to get everybody here but

remember folks ultimately there's a lot

of pain that's coming in 2022 and you

just want to surround yourself with

smart people that can help you get

through it rex ice hobo time dr meek mob

spoke out nyc boogeyman brandon four

brandon this is tech crispy hope you

come back greek and mba our special bear

and and so many of you that i couldn't

mention here that i interact with you i

love you i don't want to keep this list

going on forever but there's so many

wonderful folks uh in the discord so

thank you shout out to you i i need to

thank you a lot more than i do so i plan

to make another uh shout out list like

this for uh for those of you that i

didn't mention in this one so stay tuned

thank you so much and folks we'll see

the next one bye

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