What Trump JUST Said | Iran, Fed, Tariffs

The big good news last night was that

Canada got rid of their digital service

tax and Hasset says we are back to

negotiating with Canada. Now, we still

haven't made progress on that, but of

course, we're going to break down all of

the other things that just happened as

well. Donald Trump spoke on Fox News

this weekend in quite an extended

interview. Besson spoke, Hasset spoke, a

lot of updates. I'm just going to give

you the bottom line of what was said.

Here's what you have to pay attention

to. First, Donald Trump on tariffs makes

it clear that we're probably looking at

assigned rates coming for other

countries likely in the neighborhood of

20 to 25%. That's sort of the

implication that I got from what he was

talking about for countries that don't

end up making straight up tax deals or

tariff deals with the United States. He

also says that, you know, well,

actually, Hess, Scott, Kevin Hasset,

Scott Besson, uh, and Donald Trump all

sort of echo that there's 200 countries

that they have to negotiate with. So,

they can't negotiate with everyone. And

so, some countries are just going to get

assigned tariff rates. I'm not sure if

this is going to be like a liberation

day 2.0 or what, because a lot of these

countries right now are at the 10%

baseline reciprocal tariff level. Uh,

and that's going to be increased back to

20 or 25, maybe even Trump says 35, 40

or 50% depending on whatever Donald

Trump wants to do. No real indication

that any actual progress has been made

with a deficit country on negotiations

just yet. Donald Trump also says that he

has three people in mind to replace

Powell likely Kevin Hasset, Scott

Bessent uh and there some other uh uh

names as well including some like Waller

who are already over at the Fed. This

is, I think, why we're seeing a lot of

people from the Fed already start

indicating like, hey, yeah, we're open

to seeing rate cuts sooner because

everybody knows that Donald Trump wants

to see lower rates. Uh, and a lot of

people seem to be applying for the job

by pitching how much lower rates should

be going. For example, Bessant this

morning made this interesting comment

about the Fed. He says, "The Fed has

done uh bad things in the past. They've

made mistakes." specifically referring

to the uh transitory inflation problem

that we had in the past. And Besson says

that the Fed is kind of like an old

person, and he didn't use the phrase old

person cuz they're all old, but he said

it's kind of like a person who has

fallen. Now they spend most of their

time like looking down at their feet to

be a little bit more confident in their

footing and they're likely to mess up

again. So, in other words, the Fed was

late to raise rates. They'll likely be

late to rate uh reduce rates now. And

this is why we need to reduce rates.

Now, one of the downsides of reducing

rates potentially is we're actually

seeing the US dollar basically fall at

the fastest rate that we've seen since

we left the gold standard for the first

6 months of any year. This was pretty

remarkable. The Financial Times put this

uh piece together and I think it's an

accurate point to look at it and say,

"Yeah, the dollar's kind of been getting

whacked." Part of the reason for that is

this anticipation or this pricing in of

more rate cuts in the future. Here's

that Financial Times piece. US dollar

suffers worst start since 1973. That's

when we left the gold standard. Uh a lot

of people see this as a risk of

ddollarization. Uh others and market

participants see this as really just

sort of balancing out the trade issue

that we have. It's sort of like the

currency market is absorbing some of the

trade issues. So, this sounds a little

complicated, but think about it this

way. If we uh put a 10% tariff on a

country to buy US goods, let's say, you

know, computer for $100 or I'll call it

$1,000, right? Uh tariff is 10%. If

dollar uh falls in value by uh 10%.

Then uh the dollar became cheaper to

buy. And in euro uh euro terms, you

know, let's say this is $1,100 total,

right? In euro terms, it's possible that

computer is still $1,000.

Basically, the currency market acts as a

buffer to tariffs. And so, that's one of

the reasons why the dollar is falling. A

lot of people do worry that the dollar

falling is because of ddollarization.

Uh, and it makes sense. You could look

at, for example, the ETF UP, which would

be US dollar up. It's the bullish ETF

for the dollar. I It's one of them.

There are many of them, but whatever. I

don't have any affiliation with it. Uh

but it's interesting because you have

seen this pretty sharp decline. This is

on the week chart over here. This is one

of the more severe declines that we've

seen even since 2022 really going all

the way back to 73. And so a lot of

people are like oh no this is dd

dollarization. People are escaping uh

you know bricks are going to take over

and I get that like you you do see that

where you know global investors are

being prompted to rethink their exposure

to the world's dominant currency. The

independence of the Fed is being

questioned. tariffs. There's a lot going

into what's affecting the dollar to

fold. Uh and it makes sense. It kind of

aligns with what we're hearing today

because you've got again Donald Trump

suggesting we're going to assign higher

tariff rates. Okay. Well, that

potentially means the dollar is going to

fall even more. If you get a new Fed

chair in May of 26 where we're talking

about faster rate cuts, the dollar might

fall even more. In fact, for our July

meeting, we used to have essentially a

0% chance of getting a rate cut in July.

That is now as high as 19%. And the odds

of a September rate cut are now as high

as 91.9%.

Uh, and we are now fully pricing in

three rate cuts by my birthday, January

28th, 2026. Uh, so we'll see by the end

of 2026, we price in five rate cuts. So,

three by January and two more in 2026.

Now remember, there are companies like

Morgan Stanley that are like, "Nah,

we're going to end up having to have

seven cuts or more." Mind you, uh yeah,

see here's here's example of a clip of

Donald Trump on the Maria interview,

which we're summarizing right now. So,

that's a little bit on the Fed and

Powell and tariffs. Still TBD on

deadlines. Donald Trump says that he can

extend the tariff deadline. No big deal.

Just like he does with Tik Tok where he

kind of kick keeps kicking the can down

the road on the Tik Tok deal at 90 days.

90 days, 90 days. One of the reasons I

think he's doing that is because he kind

of has to. Donald Trump has to get

approval from Tik Tok for the Tik Tok

sale or from China for the Tik Tok sale

to occur. And China's obviously going to

incorporate that into their trade

negotiations. And I don't think China

wants to stay at 55% tariffs. So these

negotiations are likely to just keep

going on for a while, which of course

begs the question of like, okay, well,

like how long can they keep going? Well,

technically they just keep going

forever. Uh, and we could have years of

trade negotiations. In fact, if you go

back to 2018 when we had trade war 1.0,

the trade negotiations went on for over

two years and they only really stopped

because of co. Now, of course, you do

get indicators from companies like both

or or uh you know, research publications

from the Chicago Business Barometer and

the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Both of them indicating some weaker

numbers than expected for June. These

are the first two weeks of June. And a

lot of folks are concerned that our

economy just isn't going to be able to

hold up the labor market as long as it's

going to take to get these tariff

negotiations done. I personally am of

the mindset that we're not going to end

up seeing tariffs show up in consumer

price inflation. So in other words, no

higher prices. Actually think it's more

likely to show up in fewer jobs. Uh so

we'll see what happens. We do have jobs

data coming out this week. On Wednesday,

we'll get the ADP survey, expecting 90K

jobs. And the Fed survey will be a day

early this week. On Thursday, since

Friday is July 4th's holiday, and the

market will be closed. And on Thursday,

we're expecting 113,000 on the BLS labor

report. I would expect that anything

under 100 or like anything under 50

would be really bearish. Anything above

150 would be pretty bullish. We'll see.

So, uh, then what we have is we have,

uh, Donald Trump giving us an update on

Iran. So, Donald Trump is of the mindset

that uh Iran did not move the 400 lb of

enriched uranium, that it's been

destroyed and it's nothing to worry

about. Uh that uh the last thing Iran is

thinking about right now is reactivating

their nuclear program and there's

nothing to worry about here. That said,

you do get some posters on social media

saying things like this. According to

intercepted communications recently

between senior Iranian officials

obtained by the United States and as

reported by the Washington Post, so this

is Jeff Bezos's paper, typically deemed

a little bit more left-leaning, so

potentially likely to want to poop on

Trump. So keep the bias in mind. Last

weekend, strikes by the US Air Force and

Navy against three existing nuclear

facilities in Iran was less devastating

and extensive than they had expected,

sparking concerns currently circulating

within the US government that the

Iranian nuclear program could res

resume. Some people are saying within

the next few months, some are saying

within the next few weeks. Donald

Trump's camp says they've been set back

years. It's worth remembering we just

don't know the answer to this. And

really, what we need is some kind of

settled deal. Now, Donald Trump did

speak to this as well and he suggested

that you get more you attract more, you

know, flies with honey than vinegar

basically and and he talked about this

idea about reducing sanctions against

Iran. But he outright denies this claim

that the United States might consider

sending $30 billion to Iran. But he did

acknowledge that the Trump

administration would be open to reducing

or entirely removing sanctions against

Iran if they had some kind of deal that

would prevent Iran from enriching

uranium while allowing Iran to open up

to the global economy. This is not

surprising, but in that article where we

heard talk that Donald Trump is

considering helping Iran restart a

peaceful uh nuclear energy program,

provide $30 billion in assistance and

remove sanctions. Donald Trump has

bluntly acknowledged that yeah, we are

open to removing sanctions. He's just

denying this $30 billion piece probably

because I mean we even talked about this

last week where we're like, bro, that's

exactly what you crapped on Obama for

was was sending the Iranians money. And

so I think Donald Trump is really

recoiling from that idea now. And so

while he calls it it fake news, it's

possible that he's just recoiling

because of the reaction that's occurred

in social media. President Trump said,

okay, let's see here. government

officials speculating as to why the

struct strikes were not as destructive

as anticipated. Uh these communications

were intended to be private. The

existence of the intercepted

communications has not been disputed by

the White House. We'll see. More

information will come out over time, but

what we really need is a deal. Uh and

I'm still a little bit frustrated that

Donald Trump is of the mindset that we

don't need a written deal. I don't know

if that's because he knows that they are

not willing to do a written deal or if

it's because Iran has been pretty blunt

that we're not going to give up

enriching uranium. Don't even bother.

Remember, that's why those European

negotiations failed between the

Iranians, the US delegations uh and

Europeans. That's why negotiations

failed the first time and that's what

ended up leading to the strikes because

the negotiations had previously already

failed. Here's that WAPO piece, by the

way. The US obtained intercepted

communications that the attack was less

devastating than uh they had expected

according to four people familiar with

the classified intelligence circulating

within the US government. The

communication intended to be private

included speculations

uh about

why the strikes were not as effective

but that they were not as effective as

thought. intercepted signals

uh that the intelligence community's

preliminary information is offering a

more comp complicated picture than one

conveyed by the president. Yeah, that's

not a surprise. Trump administration did

not dispute the existence of the

intercepted comms.

You can expect the press secretary to

get talked to to get asked about this.

It's shameful the WPO is helping people

connect commit felonies by uh publishing

out of context leaks. Well, there you

go. There's the press secretary. I

wasn't expecting that to be in the next

sentence. Uh, analysts broadly agree

that the strikes have involved immense

firepower, but the extent of destruction

and how long it may take Iran to rebuild

has been hotly debated. Iran moved its

stock amid reports that Iran moved its

stockpile. We highly believe that Iran

moved its stockpile. Donald Trump

strongly disputes this idea, but that's

okay. I mean, I it's not that much stuff

to move. It would have been very easy

for Iran to move their highlyenriched

uranium. Uh so when asked about the

communication, a Trump administration

official says, "The Iranians were wrong

because we've destroyed their metal

conversion facility. We know that our

weapons were delivered precisely where

we wanted them to be delivered and had

the effect we wanted.

Obviously, some of this is going to be

political posturing to try to set up

negotiations. A single phone call

between unnamed Iranians is not the same

as an intelligence assessment. Fair

interceptor phone calls, emails, and

comms known as signals intelligence are

some of the most powerful tools in the

US spy agencies, right? The CIA sends

signals, but signals intelligence also

has limitations as overheard snippets of

conversations sometimes lack context.

Totally fair. Trump has been furious

about the news conference. Democrats are

the ones who leak the information. Okay,

we kind of get the idea here. So,

Capital Hill disagreements about the

effectiveness remained. You cannot bomb

knowledge out of existence. No matter

how many scientists you kill, there are

still people in Iran who know how to

work centrifuges. And if they still have

enriched uranium, they still have the

ability to use centrifuges. And you're

not setting the program back by years.

You're setting the program back by

months. Yeah, I I kind of agree that,

you know, within 6 months they could

probably be up and operating again

somewhere, especially at the Pyramid

Mountain facility, which they just, you

know, they didn't touch at all with

their strikes. And that's supposedly a

substantially deeper, like 300 foot deep

facility that has potentially thousands

of centrifuges.

Uh, so that'll be very interesting to

see where that goes. See all comments.

4,000 comments on a Washington Post

piece. I feel like these are going to be

bots.

Let's see. Uh, latest. Let's go to

recommended. What are the recommended?

That means Trump was lying to us. Would

who would have guessed that? Okay. The

only thing they eliber obliterated was

whiskey pete heath. Oh, they're trying

to come up with nicknames for he Pete.

If only we hadn't just lobbotomized the

entire US intelligence agency. And this

is talking about like Doge cuts. I don't

know that that's exactly what happened.

Think that's a little extreme. Anyway,

okay. So, we talked uh we talked

Bessant. We talked uh Hasset. Kevin

Hasset didn't really honestly say much.

He kind of punted this idea that hey,

are you open to being, you know, Fed

chair or whatever? Donald Trump did say

nice things about him, suggesting that

Kevin is a very talented guy and he

wouldn't be doing what Powell is doing.

Basically, Powell is a very bad guy,

Donald Trump said.

And we talked about Iran. We talked

about the tariff negotiations. So,

that's kind of an update on what we

heard from the Trump team this morning.

We'll see what other news comes out. So,

as usual, like and subscribe to get more

information. Why not advertise these

things that you told us here? I feel

like nobody else knows about this. We'll

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it goes. Congratulations, man. You

have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Praath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber.

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.