No, Graham Stephan, No.

oh in this video we're going to talk

about retail capitulation we'll have a

note about Bentley and what it says

about a Tesla we'll also talk about what

retail buyers are thinking about Tesla

talk a little bit about inflation

protection and of course what Barons

just told me about one of my favorite

stock sectors but first I have to

address this random comment I got

yesterday somebody's like Kevin do you

do you have an obsession with always

showing us that you're holding coffee is

is do you have a problem and I'm like

yes

I I don't understand common sometimes

but honestly I love the collection of

coffee mugs that I have this is a super

restore potion and

I only have like seven cups of coffee a

day so it's totally normal and not a

problem

demand coming from China remember that

the Chinese consumers the higher end

consumers I should say really like nice

cars

and there's a potential that if we're

starting to see a drop off in luxury

cars over at Bentley which is

historically something unique then that

could potentially also explain the

drop-off in demand that we're seeing in

China for Tesla which would isolate the

demand drop off for Tesla to China

rather than to the rest of the world now

I did a pretty deep analysis on well on

my thoughts okay I I don't want to make

it seem like it went ridiculously deep

here but I went pretty deep on some of

my thoughts on both trade desk and Tesla

in a course member live stream two days

ago and I want to know from you should I

was thinking about as just sort of a

free sample posting that entire analysis

it comes with my price targets for Tesla

as well if you want to see that just

leave a comment down below and go post

the pp live stream in honor of the

coupon code expiring Friday which gets

you lifetime access to anytime I go live

in the course member livestream okay so

this is interesting to me because

China's clearly having economic issues

at the same time as now the pull-up

Bureau and the government the Chinese

Communist Party are essentially

suggesting hey you know what we're going

to go ahead and pull back some more of

the covid curbs once again now finally

allowing individuals to quarantine at

home rather than a quarantine hotels if

they're otherwise as safe and not a

threat to other individuals this is a

big shift we've always seen these

coveted curbs kind of trend down where

okay instead of spending 10 days in a

coveted hotel now it's five days now

it's potentially zero it's a pretty big

shift and it's a continuation of the

likely gradual and Rocky exit we're

going to see China go through from covid

zero keep in mind the economist says

there's really no win-win solution here

because if they reopen too quickly they

have not actually prepared the Chinese

people enough to be ready for a full-on

covid storm that is the economist

injecting potentially as many as eight

hundred thousand people could die and

there could be five times the demand for

ICU beds as ICU beds are actually

available in China with a full covid uh

elimination or or coveted restriction

elimination right so in other words all

of Cove at zero just being turned on its

head and just a full-on reopening could

lead to a complete disaster now on the

other hand as we talked about a couple

days ago the slower China escapes from

sort of these uh coveted zero

restrictions potentially the longer they

will continue to be an anchor for Global

inflation which is actually somewhat a

good thing for the rest of the world not

just potentially for fewer deaths

happening in China but also potentially

for helping inflation stay low because

if China just goes right back to booming

gonna help push up some more inflation

one of the reasons oil by the way is

falling right now which is nice I mean

we just went under 80 a barrel and I

mean this stuff fluctuates on the daily

basis but Brent Brent's right at 80

right now uh the Western WTI sitting at

about 75 bucks we're negative for the

year on oil it's actually pretty

shocking

but uh we've got to talk about retail

here right after I mentioned that yet

another Equity Fund has a limited

withdrawals can you believe this first

blackstone's non-traded Reit limits

withdrawals sorry can't get your money

out then Star Wars non-traded Reit

limits withdrawals now blackstone's

private Equity Fund the largest business

development company in existence with

over 22 billion in assets under

management

has hit their cap of five percent

withdrawals in other words everybody's

trying to get their money out of

everything to increase cash cashola cash

is King in a recession of course

somebody that I'm gonna bring up here

another YouTuber apparently does not

think so but I am a little bit confused

by their tweet we'll handle that in a

moment but first

we need to address some charts retail

flows are starting to fall before data

releases now this could be normal uh

personally I actually think this is the

smart thing for retail to do I'm gonna

move myself here I think that when you

go into reports like a CPI reporter fomc

report generally you would expect to see

the lowest inflows because why would you

buy right before reports right now you

could potentially uh you know buy the

dip right before reports but anytime you

have a critical report like the CPI

inflation report coming out on Tuesday

which is in six days why why would you

throw money into the market when if we

get a bad CPI report we can see all

indices down five percent before you

even have a chance to sell uh I mean and

remember the CPI report comes out before

the Market opens so even if you're like

oh I'll set stop losses those probably

won't trigger until the Market opens

okay okay so so you know it kind of kind

of sense people like you know what let's

just wait

and see anyway this chart here the

purple line is what uh represents retail

inflows according to Vanda track and

it's plummeting uh you know we are

almost at the lowest levels that we've

seen for retail inflows all year long

right here uh with only really after

drone Powell's Jackson Hole us having a

lower time uh similar to what we briefly

had there around the bottom of the

market in July although we did hit a

further bottom after that which you

could actually see exemplified here uh

and here so I guess this was a little

bit right after the bottom of the market

but anyway you get the idea okay so uh

what else do we have well look at this

particular chart this is retail

purchasers of purchases of individual

stocks on a rolling 21 day basis and

what you can see is that AMD has been

relatively stable you can see that

Amazon has kind of dropped off after a

little bit of a rally over here you've

had Netflix drop off Microsoft drop off

Facebook drop off uh and apple drop off

pretty much every single stock retail

heavy uh which these are really the

large cap stocks the ones that kind of

everybody has in their portfolio almost

almost all of these have fallen off in

the last month-ish here for retail

purchasing with the exception of one

baby and that one is the gift that keeps

on giving Tesla and it's the gift that

keeps on giving because as you can see

here the more the black line goes down

which represents Tesla's price the more

retail does the apish thing it says Ah

buying this

give me some more Q when the p goes down

I increase my Q look

uh that's me too okay like this this

chart is me I I I I like it I like it I

like price go down I buy Tesla okay I

like

but I also I also realize that even

though we expect Tesla to go to the moon

at some point in the next five years if

I had any need for my Capital within at

least the next two years I probably

would not be doing this and I certainly

wouldn't Advocate this look you all know

this you know I'm a licensed financial

advisor you know I run an ETF you know

I'm a real estate broker you know I've

got educational courses coupon code PP

expiring Friday okay uh with new content

coming out this month this is not to

give you personal financial advice

but I'd like to be very very clear here

buying the dip in a recession is a

wonderful wonderful strategy if you're

not interested in trying to play the

timing the market game and you have that

long-term belief that what we are seeing

is actually value

and in my opinion I actually think we

see value at Tesla now I'll uh if if

y'all want you leave those comments and

I'll release my longer thesis on Tesla

and my commentary on price targets just

leave leave a comment down below I'll do

that later today but

you've got to think about it this way if

you actually think that Tesla's going to

grow at at least 45 percent in earnings

per share

the recession protection story is

actually still present I know that

sounds insane

I I know some people are going to go how

the thing's down 50 this year I get it a

lot of things go down a lot and this is

no exception

but you've got Twitter overhang you've

got China overhang right you've got

you've got a lot of issues going on I

got Elon selling overhang

if Tesla grows at 45 uh at a 45 percent

basis on its earnings per share during

the 2023 recession every quarter just 45

45 45 45 or more or more right could be

50 but I'm just gonna go with 45 percent

and their forward p e ratio right now is

sitting at somewhere around 40 that puts

their PEG ratio at under

one that is a really good deal for

growth and it's not just not just Tesla

that's starting to look like a really

good deal for growth it's actually also

companies like this right here Barons

did a great piece on this and I believe

in this AMD video some of the other chip

manufacturers these are high pricing

power companies these are high margin

companies

and maybe just maybe most of the pain

has already been priced in no guarantees

no guarantees things can go absolutely

crazy but anyway uh in addition to

seeing individual stock purchases

plummet another thing that you're

actually seeing is you're seeing

investments into energy finally start to

roll over with retail investors now this

is an interesting one because a lot of

people were really following uh Wall

Street into oil companies but now that

oil has gone negative uh year for the

year which basically just means it's a

lower price now than what it pre what it

was at the beginning of the year you're

actually seeing retail purchases of oil

stocks plummet look at that plummet I

mean we're we're almost at uh some of

the lows that we've seen this year but

uh we're definitely on that massive

downward trajectory here another thing

you see is that the uh this right here

is the S P 500 this top dark blue line

this right here represents your call put

premium which is just basically a ratio

of if you divide calls by puts how

expensive are calls and you can see that

calls right now are actually at probably

the least expensive level that we've

seen since before the pandemic that's

pretty remarkable pretty remarkable in

addition to that we are seeing retail

net purchases of individual stocks

overall plummet at the same time as

retail purchases of ETFs are declining

this actually implies that people aren't

doing the typical seasonal tax loss

harvesting see usually what we see is we

see a plummet like over here you see a

plummet in stock purchases and you see

an increase in ETF purchases plummet and

stock purchases increase in ETF

purchases the reason people do that is

is to tax loss Harvest while still

having exposure for so for example you

sell Tesla and then you buy a stock that

has you know I don't know a 20 exposure

to Tesla uh or an ETF that has a 20

exposure to Tesla at least you still

have some upside while being able to

avoid potentially the the wash loss uh

the wash rules which if you're not

familiar with tax loss harvesting talk

to a CPA do some Googling on tax house

harvesting you sell you have to wait at

least 30 days you can't buy a derivative

which is like an option you can't buy

something substantially similar right so

usually people end up taking an ETF but

you're not actually seeing that right

now which is interesting you're just

seeing a decline in both you're seeing

outflows in both which I personally

think is a sign of people raising cash

which I think is a smart thing to do

I've been saying since January that the

best asset class this year is likely to

be cash I wish I believed in myself more

well it wasn't that I didn't believe in

myself more I just saw really good deals

in the stock market I started spending

my cash uh but I wish I held more cash

this year it's the one thing I wish I

did more of this year and I talked about

how cash was going to be the best hedge

against inflation in 2022 and people got

so mad at me they're like how stupid are

you how stupid are you to say that when

inflation is eight percent your best

hedge against inflation is Cash like

your cash is just losing eight percent

in value well there are two ways you

could look at this one you could say

yeah maybe my cash lost eight percent

value but my stocks lost fifty percent

in value or 20 of value whatever you

were investing in right that's one way

people people might look at that so like

cash is not as bad but that's actually

not the way I look at it even though

it's a pretty simplistic way to look at

it I think the the way that takes a

little bit more logic to think about is

this way if your cash is being used to

buy food

or gas or rent then yes your cash has

lost money

but if your cash was actually being used

and you waited patiently to buy stocks

or bonds basically assets

that ended up declining in value your

cash PP your cash purchasing power

actually increased it didn't go down it

increased and this is what I said in

January said cash is not trash when

assets go down your cash becomes more

valuable if that's what you're buying so

you're actually having deflation right

assets are deflating making your cash

more valuable not less and this is where

I'm like dude Graham freaking Stefan

what the f what are you doing somebody

here you know this person goes well well

Graham goes what's the best investment

you've made this year somebody goes not

investing I mean they're actually not

wrong that's that's a very smart

statement like yeah looking back it's

like damn the money I didn't invest was

good and then the reply here is it's not

like cash was a better option with high

inflation like what yes it was guys I

wanted to shake you like yes it was Cash

was the best trade in 2022 any fund that

had a large cash position killed it in

2022. what are you saying

ah sorry I had to get that out of my

system anyway 10-day net retail

purchases with leverage and without have

overall declined leveraged purchases and

non-leveraged purchases well I'm sorry

this is leveraged ETFs with leverage or

without this would be like a triple QQQ

or a short QQQ right so or or like a one

and a half X Tesla whatever

purchases of leveraged ETFs have just

overall been declining whether they've

been with leverage uh or without which

basically means are using margin to buy

a leveraged ETF it's it's this is this

chart is telling you

risk off okay retail's shutting down

and I think that's really what's

happening here is you you just have

retail shutting down sky was like you

know what

mic drop peace I'm gonna take my time

I'll come back I'll come back when

things are different

I do think that a little bit of of

what's Happening Here short U.S Equity

ETF purchases I mean here this shows the

inverse ETFs sqq you see a little bit of

rotation down here though this is a

pretty noisy chart I do like this chart

a lot because it just shows you where

the retail purchases are really going in

the last five days over here it's mostly

Tesla followed by uh Apple Amazon video

that's a great one AMD great one I think

these guys are knocking on the door

bottom I think meta is a massive mistake

I personally would not bet on the

Chinese consumer although the stock has

gotten pretty darn inexpensive uh I for

me I think meta is is a dumpster fire I

think Mark Zuckerberg's got to go with

his his metaverse idea uh I think

Facebook should should

should get really good at ads and and

stop trying to play the 20-year bet uh

at least not with the amount of money

that they're spending into it in a

recession I I don't know that's my take

uh Lucid I think this is a bankruptcy

risk right here you look at my video uh

you just YouTube uh Lucid rivian

bankruptcy meet Kevin you'll see it

Taiwan I like this uh Apple's huge

partnership coming up oxy I think

actually is a good Market Hedge not

opposed to this uh I do not like the

valuation of Activision Blizzard I think

it's really been propped up on the idea

of the merger with Microsoft

and uh yeah I'm not gonna go down the

rest of this list here you can kind of

pause it and look I I I've been

personally I have to say I've been

tempted by a firm but boy the risk is

high the risk is very high I've been

tempted by it but I haven't been in a

firm for a very very very very very very

long time I'm actually surprised I don't

see oh there's end phase I was looking

for it it's way down over here by Delta

uh anyway so uh let me know comment down

below PP

course member live stream or something

to that effect and uh and and if we get

enough likes and comments on on that

idea I will uh reveal this this like

hour-long live stream uh sample on trade

desk and Tesla I actually think it's

it's very informative it's roughly what

we try to do on a daily basis gives you

a good sample and it provides some more

insight into Tesla which I think a lot

of people are asking for right now

anyway thank you so much for watching

cheers my friends good luck on your

trading day I am flying to New York baby

let's go