Trump picking Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair would be a DISASTER

Hey everyone, me Kevin here. What if I

told you that during the last financial

crisis after Bear Sterns was collapsing,

remember the one that Jim Kramer said

was totally safe and he would put his

money with Bear Sterns that subsequently

collapsed. Yeah. Okay. That one.

Remember Lehman Brothers? When Lehman

Brothers collapsed and almost the entire

financial system globally collapsed

because banking came into doubt and

American capitalism came into doubt.

Remember that panic? It was called the

Great Recession of 2008.

And what if I told you that there was

somebody at the Federal Reserve who

didn't think that trying to save the

economy by any means necessary was a

good idea? What if I told you there was

somebody who said, "Nah, you know what?

We reduce rates a little bit. We've done

enough. We're actually worried about

inflation and uh we actually think we

should raise interest rates in the

middle of 2008 to help the economy

recover even though we're actually in

the middle of collapsing. Let's raise

interest rates because we're worried

that there's going to be inflation.

Look, I know a lot of people are

frustrated about money printing postcoid

and trust me, I get it. I study it every

day. I basically sleep and dream about

the Federal Reserve when I even go to

sleep. So, it's sort of like I work the

Fed, then I go to sleep and I'm dreaming

Fed, and then I wake up and it's more

fed. Okay, that's why I'm so passionate

about this topic. There is a complete

clown, and they're all clowns, but there

is a clown of clowns that should not

become the chairperson of the Federal

Reserve. And I will be disgraced if

Donald Trump pulls this off because this

particular clown is so bad for America

that when the moment strikes that the

institutions of American capitalism come

into question, I don't think that they

will actually be there to support

America based on what they've actually

done, their actual actions. And that's

what this video is about. Donald Trump

better not make this mistake. And as of

yesterday,

Poly Market is betting that this very

individual has the greatest chance of

being the Federal Reserve chairperson.

And this is a massive mistake. But I

promised I'd get this word in today. So,

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how people connect. So, let's talk about

this last Friday. And this is why you

should follow me on X. Just make sure

you turn notifications on because I'm

pretty sure Elon Musk has me muted and

demonet or like what's it called?

Deprioritized. But I wrote Trump says

Kevin Walsh is now a top pick for the

Fed. I wrote this is bearish and should

be. If markets tank on Walsh, Trump will

flip on him too. Waller is the best

answer. That's what I said last Friday.

And guess what happened after last

Friday? Post market tanked. Monday

tanked. This morning was a little

nervous, but we actually started

recovering towards the end of the day.

Okay, great. Why? Because Donald Trump

had finally opened his mouth and said,

"You know what? I'm actually open to

interviewing Chris Waller. Chris Waller

has the lowest potential chance of

becoming the Fed chair right now. If I

could bet on Poly Market, I would. Kevin

Hasset is a wet blanket. I'd be okay

with Kevin Hasset. So, Chris Waller is

my favorite. He's only got a 13% chance.

I actually think Trump will pick Chris

Waller. If I could put money on Chris

Waller right now, I would, but I can't

use Poly Market. So, Chris Waller, my

favorite pick. Kevin Hasset, wet

blanket. I'd be okay with him. worst

pick, Kevin Walsh, because remember what

happened after the financial crisis? We

had about 12 years until the COVID money

printing.

12 years of inflation that ran under 2%.

Nobody talked about inflation. We were

literally at the like from year 28 to

year 40 on the great moderation of

inflation collapsing. We couldn't get it

up. We were literally running QE

infinity and we couldn't get it up

because capitalism deflates. That's what

it does over time. The problem is things

got a little out of hand during COVID

and did a little too much. We know we

made a little oopsie-doopsies. Okay, we

made an oopsies during CO.

But ignore CO for a moment. I really

want you to think back. What if you had

somebody like Kevin Wsh? Well, let me

show you what Kevin Walsh stands for and

then you tell me if Kevin Walsh would be

a good option for you. Because Kevin

Walsh has written pieces during the 2008

financial crisis and here is his

mindset. Kevin Walsh says

that uh along with his buddy Richard

Fiser, who has a singular talent for

seeing inflation that nobody else could,

a six sense if you will, being allergic

to data, did not want to see rates come

down. No, him and Walsh actually wanted

to see rates go up. So, in June of 2008,

the Fed minutes and transcripts indicate

Kevin Walsh wanted rates to go up. If we

go to August, while we were literally in

a nasty crash already, again, we had

Bear Sterns, we had the 2007 uh BNP

Parabus collapse of funds. We'll talk

about that. quote, "Warsh kept insisting

that inflation risks are very real, and

I believe they are higher than growth

risks." Yes, Kevin Walsh literally told

you in 2008 while everything was

collapsing and housing prices were

already collapsing all around us that uh

don't worry, we've cut rates three

times, you know, by a few percent like

we're okay. We'll we'll be fine.

Inflation's a bigger concern. Why did he

think this? He thought this because oil

prices were rising. But see, we know

this today that oil prices are a topline

inflation issue. They're not a core

inflation issue. And so, sure enough, if

you actually zoom in to look at what

core inflation looked like, you'll

actually find that core inflation was

relatively stable during the time that

Kevin Walsh was worried about oil prices

leading topline and headline inflation

up, non-core inflation up. This is an

elementary mistake. Kevin Walsh goes

back to the days of like Nixon and

Reagan of the 1970s and he's worried

that we're going to have price controls

again. Basically, remember what happened

in the 1970s? The 1970s were a terrible

period of monetary policy. Nixon

instituted price controls to combat

stagflation. All he did was make it

worse. It's like he sort of put a lid on

a hyper compressed bottle and then when

that lid broke, we had all this

hyperinflation because Reagan's like,

"Nah, we're going to get rid of these

price controls. This is dumb." And then

you had Arthur Burns, who's widely

considered the worst Fed chairperson

ever in the history of Fed chairpersons

since we created this Ponzi institution

in the early 1900s. Well, Vulkar had to

step in to fix it all with a double dip

recession. That was painful. But

somebody finally put the pants back on

the Federal Reserve and we had 40 years

of disinflation. But the problem is

Walsh had no credit to that because even

though you had other people just a month

August 5th, just a month before Lehman

Brothers literally telling Kevin Walsh

that quote really bad things could

happen. There is a credit crunch coming

down. inflation will come down on its

own because the economy is crashing and

we can actually create a nasty vicious

spiral between weak banks and a weak

economy. And so you should not worry

about inflation. You should be worried

about going into a deflationary crash.

And guess what? Kevin Walsh didn't care.

Instead, writing, "Inflation risks are

very real and I believe that these are

higher than growth risks." That's your

Kevin Walsh. The person who evokes the

1970s

was ready to let the entire US economy

collapse because he was worried about

inflation in 2008 which even with QE

infiniti we know in hindsight was not an

issue. But even at the present time he

was wrong about the data. He was wrong.

And the problem that I hate about him

now is that he has a revisionist

history. I'm going to play you a clip

here from the Hoover Institute and

you're going to see him say, "Oh, you

know, yeah, we made mistakes. We could

have done more." Yet, the irony is his

co-workers at the Fed were literally

begging him to do more. And he was the

jack a saying no.

>> But in the darkest days of that crisis,

which uh maybe we get a gentleman's B

for how we handled it, uh we could have

done more sooner. We made plenty of

mistakes. We had some successes, too. uh

the real economy was deteriorating

faster than we had any historical

reference of. Financial markets were

down 60 70% in equity prices and maybe

most alarming the treasury market

auctions the auction for the most

important security in the world which is

synonymous with the dollar people

weren't showing up in the auctions were

literally begging him to do more and he

was the jack a saying no we have to be

focused on price stability here these

are quotes from him we have reduced the

policy rate by a cumulative relative 3

percentage points since August. These

actions together with significant

actions support liquidity are intended

to promote growth and mitigate downside

risks to the economic activity. We need

to be alert to risks to price stability.

Increases in food and energy prices have

pushed up overall consumer prices and

are putting upward pressure on core

inflation and inflation expectations.

The last two things were totally false.

Core inflation and inflation

expectations were actually quite

anchored. We were not seeing core

inflation or inflation expectations

rise. If anything, they were declining

because the economy was literally

collapsing around them. you frankly had

Kevin Walsh telling you via a very piece

that he wrote that hey guys so um you

know this is actually uh April of uh

2008 and uh I'm going to write you know

some Shakespeare quotes here from the

Tempest act 2 scene one and I'm going to

talk about liquidity what happens if

liquidity falters and how there's a

global margin call on virtually every

position

And that was because of a liquidity

shock that happened in last August,

which don't even get me started on the

similarities of this. Okay, this is the

scary part. All right, you ready for

this? August of 2007, BNP Paradise

temporarily suspends the calculation of

net asset values of the following funds

because basically you can't trust the

credit ratings anymore because

everything is collapsing. The complete

evaporation of liquidity in certain

markets market segments of US

securization market has made it

impossible to value certain assets

fairly regardless of their quality or

credit rating. A situation like this

makes it no longer possible to fairly

value the underlying assets on the above

three mentioned funds. And in order to

protect you, we're just going to

temporarily suspend calculating what's

going on. So, we'll just we'll just put

our head in the sand and pretend like

the market is not crashing, which is

eerily similar to UBS liquidating funds

with substantial first brands exposure

in November of 2025. Oh, okay. Too many

similarities. 2007 was different, Kevin.

We had offbalance sheet risks from, you

know, subprime housing and SIVs. Today,

it's different. We have uh NBFIs which

are called non-bank financial

intermediaries. So this time is

different. Step bro, stop being so

fussy. Okay, fine. Listen, between you

and me, it's all a giant Ponzi. We know

the way to protect our wealth is by

having exposure to good companies.

Whether that's great companies in the

stock market over the long term, great

companies that you operate yourself,

good income yourself because you provide

value to the world, or little startups

that I think are great like my startup

house. Hey, we closed our fund raise at

the end of the month month. You know

about that. Read the offering circular

at houseack.com. Old dues. We're ending

that fund raise. No more. I think the

valuation is too low, but that's my

opinion.

So,

they're going to print again,

and we want them to print because if we

go into a financial crisis, and they

don't, we will turn into Japan. We will

literally fail to stimulate the greatest

economy in the world.

and we will be in a deflationary

depression and have a lost decade, much

like Japan where it's taken 20 years for

your stocks to return a dollar. You'd be

upside down for 20 years. Nobody wants

that. So, let's be real. If we have a

recession, we are going to print money.

We're going to drop rates to zero and

we're going to print money. We know the

game. We know the rules of the game. And

what is that going to mean? It's going

to mean a lot of stuff's going to

collapse. A lot of companies are going

to go bankrupt. But we're going to get

sweet discounts on stocks. Probably not

real estate because there's no bubble in

real estate debt right now. There's a

bubble in private credit which

circulates over to the artificial

intelligence scam altman bubble. Okay,

fine. So what does that mean? It means

if we get Kevin Walsh, we do not get

somebody who is actually willing to

protect this economy. The Ponzi. Yes. It

means we basically Peter shift back to

the gold standard. Now some people might

be like, you know what, f it. Great

reset it all. But the problem is all

you'll be doing is handing the greatest

economy in the world to China.

We don't want that. So in my opinion,

Kevin Walsh is the greatest risk of the

Trump administration. Nothing else.

Kevin Walsh is a revisionist. He will

tell you, "Oh yeah, you know, we made

some mistakes." Listen, the Fed's

already printing money, okay? They're

already starting. Literally yesterday,

we pumped 5.2 billion into tommo tomo,

to M O, temporary open market

operations. Right? That's different from

the $40 billion of POMO, permanent open

market operations. It's just the easiest

way to remember it. P O M O. Without

those, you get somo.

Sadness, right? Anyway, okay. So, where

do we stand with all of this? Well, we

know the unemployment numbers were

trash. There's a reason Donald Trump hid

the unemployment numbers for October.

Okay, the October unemployment numbers

were horrid. I mean, we'll go look at

them and then look at the revisions as

well. BLS labor report. Uh, and you can

look at the S&P report that just came

out. Not great. Donald Trump hid the

October report. Now, people who love

Trump were going to say, "Oh, but you

know, Donald Trump, uh, he didn't hide

it. The government was shut down." But

he was able to pick up the phone and

call the same bureau and say, "Get me

the October CPI report." So, he was able

to send them to work. Why not send the

jobs report PEOPLE TO WORK? OH, BECAUSE

IT would have shown a negative 105,000

job print. Are you kidding me? Do you

realize why the Federal Reserve is

printing money now? Tommo and Pomo.

Yeah, they're printing money not just

overnight to support liquidity, but also

on the 26 to 53 week, 52- week period.

Why?

Because they need to hold up the one leg

of the economy that's keeping everything

propped right now. It's AI. Imagine the

AI bubble pops. We're screwed. All those

jobs really go in the toilet. But look

at this. negative 105,000

for October means we literally

eradicated every single job that we got

in September.

After that, congratulations. We gained

64,000.

But wait a minute, folks, we also had

revisions. Oh no, August was revised

down by 22,000 from -4 to -26.

So if we actually got the October

report, we'd be August would be - 26,

September 108, October negative 105. So

you may as well wash that out, call it

zero. So you'd be - 26. Then you'd have

64. And so that means you would have a

4mon average of -26

+ 0 + 0 + 64, that's 38. divided by

four, you would have a 4-month average

of 9.5,000

jobs per month. Do you think there's any

wonder why the Federal Reserve is

starting to print? And do you think

there's any wonder why somebody like me

looks at this and goes for humans? Okay,

for the sake of our future, having

somebody like Kevin Walsh could be the

end of the global financial Ponzi. And

again, some people are going to go, let

it all burn.

just going to say it's going to cause a

decade of depression. You don't want it.

You would rather want them to run in the

money printer. Rates back to zero and no

inflation.

Problem is right now we don't have much

room for error. Financial times is

reporting that the Bank of America fund

manager survey shows that average cash

holdings in portfolios are down to 3.3%

in December. This is the lowest level

since the survey began in 1999. Now cash

levels are this low

because portfolio values have gone up.

It's a ratio, right? But this is a

problem because it means people have

less capacity to buy the dip. It means

they have to raise money to invest. I

get it. You know, I ran a poll this

morning. 31% of you who responded to the

poll say that for you to invest in house

hack or reinvest, you have to go sell

other stocks. And I respect that. Like I

get it. I get it. Okay. Like yes, you

get a 5% yield through conversion. You

can invest with credit card, AC, or

wires no fee. I get it. You get a 5%

yield paid monthly through conversion.

Conversion of stock only takes place if

our valuation exceeds the valuation

today, right? So that's cool, but I also

understand there's an opportunity cost.

And that's why I want to make sure my

investors know my goal is going big

here. I want to IPO this sucker. I don't

want a recession. I'm just putting all

my cards on the table. I want the AI

boom to keep going. It's not going to

matter if we go into a recession because

all of real estate is paid off. We have

no bank debt. We're making a lot of

money already from our artificial

intelligence. A lot of people are

signing up for the lifetime access to

the artificial intelligence because they

realize when we actually have this

product fully released over the next 6

months, it's going to turn into a

monthly fee. That'll be 2 to300 bucks a

month and you could have lifetime access

instead now. So, I get it. That's why

people are, you know, signing up. But

the point is, with my bias out of the

side, Kevin Walsh would be absolutely

devastating. I think the guy is a

revisionist clown. And I don't I I like

I really wish I could bet against him.

Now, I'm really grateful to hear that

Trump is open to talking to Waller

because Waller is basically JPOW Jr. And

you might not like JPOW, but at least

the guy is he's cognizant of inflation.

He's willing to support the labor

market. That's both JPAL right now. It's

both Myron. Myin, JPAL, and Waller. Like

it or not, they're probably on the right

side of history. The problem is they're

going to seem like they're too late

because of people like Kevin Walsh who

are of this mindset that inflation's

going to be this boogeyman next year and

even if we go into a recession, who are

willing to raise rates. He has this

crazy idea that you could raise rates to

support the economy, but then just pump

liquidity into the market to reduce

financial pain during a financial

crisis. So raise rates while pumping

liquidity. That's harsh for you. That is

scary to me. Again, I don't agree with

the whole Ponzi. I want to be clear

about that. But you learn the rules of

the game and you play it. And I'm

telling you, my worstcase bet is Waller

or sorry, is is Walsh. That's why I sent

this tweet on Friday.

The fact that today I tweeted, and you

could follow me here. Sorry, this was a

picture of me grinding with my black ex

uh Trump to interview Chris Waller for

Fed, massively bullish.

That's my take. Uh, and so I'm really

grateful for that. And then if you

notice this morning, what did markets do

after that 11:30 tweet? Look at markets.

I'm not saying it was necessarily

because of my tweet, but 11:30 would be

Eastern time would be 2:30. So 2:30 in

markets. I kid you not, look at when the

green candles came. This market wasn't

upset because of Oracle or Broadcom. It

was upset because of WASH. And that's

why I said the market's going to tank

because of war. And the fact that he's

open to Waller is a bullish catalyst.

>> Bullish catalyst.

>> Now,

it's also worth noting that in my alpha

report this morning, I mentioned pretty

clearly that I thought there was a 70%

chance we would have a green day. I

didn't think we were going to make it to

617, but it would be a calm day up. that

wouldn't necessarily be a guaranteed,

you know, volatile straight up. But I

called that the first minutes of this

open and you could watch it recorded on

our course member live streams that we

would not have a big red candlestick

because the jobs report just wasn't bad

enough to trigger institutional selling.

And I I knock on wood because I hope I

can keep providing insights like this.

I'm really grateful for all those of you

who join, but we had green candlesticks

right at the open and I was really

grateful for that. Now, we did U-turn

back to 607, which is an interesting

support line. If you don't have that

support line yet, we came within 3 cents

of that line, but that's okay. We said

today wasn't going to be a straight up

day. Look at that. Touched the line

twice and look how we ended the day.

Green.

It's in our alpha report.

It's because of Waller in part. The WH

idea is exactly what I predicted last

Friday. that Walsh would crash the

market and as soon as the market

crashes, he'll U-turn. The receipts are

literally on X. Trump says Kevin Walsh

is now top pick for Fed chair. This is

bearish and should be. If markets tank

on Walsh, Trump will flip on him, too.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Pafra there, financial

analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.