DANGER: China is about to F**K Us.

Well, stocks are mooning today, which is

great. And part of it is because of the

Tik Tok deal and Oracle. But what do we

need to know about that deal that could

create some risks in the future? And is

this just a slide bailout by Donald

Trump? I mean, after all, this morning

in the Alpha Report, as always, and this

is something for you to take away from,

we analyzed that if we went green in the

first 5 minutes, we're going to go for a

617 test on the Q's. And what was

remarkable is as we covered this at the

morning in Oracle which has been

plummeting and you could take this away

and learn for it. We went to the

five-minute candles and noticed that the

volume on the one minute now today in

fairness is triple witching but the

volume 1 minute into the market open

with a massive green candlestick was

already three times larger than what we

had seen in the prior days which is a

good sign that things were going to be

bullish for the day. And sure enough,

look at this. You can't make it up. If

you bought in that first minute, you'd

be straight up on the cues today. Pretty

remarkable. So, will this enthusiasm

last? Yesterday, we bounced on the 607

line. Today, we're at 617. Is the pain

finally over? And all of it comes down

to this approval of the Tik Tok deal.

Yesterday, Donald Trump suggested that a

deal has been signed with Bite Dance. A

definitive agreement has been made.

Trump and the CEO of Tik Tok have made

that clear. So, does this mean the deal

is in the bag? Are we done? No. And

that's really critical because I would

make the argument that today we actually

have this behemoth of private credit

that we don't even realize how big it

is. to come up with an analogy, which we

talked about this morning as well. To

come up with an analogy, consider the

size of JP Morgan going bankrupt,

the same as the size of our private

credit markets. Think about that. JP

Morgan is about a $4 trillion AUM bank.

Banks lend to non-bank financial

intermediaries like a Jeff who then lend

to private credit companies. Private

credit is how big? $4 trillion. So if

private credit goes poopy dupy, it's

like losing a too big to fail JP Morgan.

And now why does this Tik Tok and Oracle

deal matter? Well, because private

credit has been flowing into data

centers, but Oracle's been getting

whacked because their private credit

lender, Blue Owl, just bailed on them

and their stock tanked even more. And so

what we want to see is companies like

Oracle succeed so that way downstream

chips can do well, memory plays can do

well, infrastructure buildout plays can

do well. Uh and then we get space data

centers downstream in the future. Right?

All of this could really prop up our

GDP. And so what Trump is basically

doing is saying, "All right, we got we

already got the Fed doing po and tommo,

right? permanent market operations,

temporary market operations. On the

temporary side, we're pumping in five

billion bucks, you know, every few days.

On the POMO side, we're doing $40

billion a month plus $20 billion a month

of mortgage back securities. So, we're

pumping liquidity to pump up private

credit. Trump's coming in here saying,

"We realize this is happening. Oracle

still falling because of private credit

fears. Hey, why don't we just assume we

have a deal and let's prop up Oracle

stock and stop the bleeding. And so far,

the market is buying it. Hook, line, and

sinker. The Q's are happy. Oracle's up

7%. Coreweave in the last day has gone

lineto line 68 to 79 on the lines. It's

trying to break out. Micron's had a

great run. AMD is up. Nvidia's up. All

of these prop up semis and and the tech

stocks. Duh. But the question is, is

this deal a done deal? What hangs in the

balance of the deal? Well, what hangs in

the balance of the deal is kind of like

what jaded Kevin wrote yesterday on X.

You could follow me there at Realme

Kevin. Jaded Kevin wrote, "The Tik Tok

deal signed being subject to China's

approval." Okay. Some might be jaded and

say that this is just to stop the

bleeding at Oracle stock, which is

working, right? The bleeding is stopping

at Oracle stock, which is great. But

what does China say about this? And so

this is where I spent a whole $6. Okay,

we did this live. We spent $6 on this.

We can put a bottom line to this. You

can thank me by joining the Meet Kevin

membership. That way you get the alpha

report every morning. Okay, so you know,

I'm making big investments here for us.

Anyway, I spent $6 and sent it to the

commies and uh in this article that we

unlocked for $6 and then I promptly

cancelled my subscription. Uh they

actually so this is from the Hong Kong

perspective and then we're going to look

at the Chinese perspective. So the more

the Beijing perspective, the Hong Kong

perspective is hey, we're not so sure

about this because there are a few

problems from both sides. First of all,

who's actually going to take the

algorithm? Because if China keeps the

algorithm, it may not qualify for US

regulatory approval because Congress

said the algorithm needs to get out of

China's hands. But if the algorithm is

going to stay with China then and and

we're going to, you know, say we're

going to retrain some of the algorithm

here, but if some of the algorithm is

staying in China via this section right

here, the deal departed from the

previously anticipated direct sale or

full divestment model, adding to the

complex approach to splitting the

algorithm, which could face close

scrutiny under US compliance

requirements. We're basically saying, is

Congress going to be okay with this?

That's the US problem. Let's assume the

US side is okay with it. What do the

Chinese say? Well, the Chinese will also

have to approve these algorithm deals.

And quote, there are uncertainties about

the algorithms control and relationship

with the parent company. And this factor

may be a point of ongoing conflict

between the US and China, especially

before midterms. Okay. What does that

mean? It's a threat. It's a threat.

China is basically saying, "We know you

want this, but you have midterms coming

up." Guess what we don't have in China?

Midterms.

Guess what we have in China? All the

power. All the power.

Okay. So, so in other words, China's got

leverage over this deal, especially with

Trump going into midterms. And what do

they say over here regarding Taiwan? Oh,

and the approval cannot necessarily be

taken for granted for the Tik Tok deal

after Washington's terribly big 11

billion in arm sales to Taiwan, a sale

angrily condemned by Beijing. Pop over

to the Associated Press.

That's your fearless leader. And what do

we have here? We have uh US announces

massive package arm sale to Taiwan

valued at more than 10 billion angering

China. They didn't speak to China about

this. If approved by Congress, it would

be the largest package to Taiwan

uh

larger than the 8.4 4 billion Biden sent

them. So big dollars. China's obviously

not happy about this. China's foreign

ministry attacked the move saying it

would violate diplomatic agreements

between China and the US and gravely

harm grave grave. This is like worse

than critical. You know, when you go to

hospital and you're dying, you know,

they they put you into like different

conditions, like, you know, they're

critical but stable, critical but not

stable, and then there's like grave.

Okay, grave is like, well, you're almost

in the grave. Uh, it's really bad. So,

that's what they're calling it. Gravely

harms China's sovereignty, security, and

territorial integrity, undermining

regional stability. Taiwan's independent

forces on the island seeking

independence through force and resist

reunification through force, squandering

the hard-earned money of the people to

purchase weapons at the cost of Taiwan

turning into a powder keg, right? So,

this is like war hawking and

wararmongering and blah blah blah drama.

Big deal, right? But really, the point

of this is this deal isn't done. There

are a lot of issues. Trump has midterms

coming up which puts him in a not great

spot. You just piss them off with

Taiwan, which you're going to keep

doing. We're basically fighting space

wars in space. I I can't remember who

did a piece. I think it was Wapo did a

piece on that yesterday. Uh space wars

with satellites. I mean, we're we're

adversaries. Yeah. Here it is. Like,

look at this. You can't make this stuff

up. WPO, why US and Chinese satellites

are dogf fighting in orbit. And my

stupid battery is low. You know, this

stupid battery does just doesn't last

long. Freaking Naga Pro. It's a scam.

It's not pro. It should be called Naga

Noob. But anyway, yeah, they've got this

whole like demonstration here of like

how close satellites are getting and and

how they're like trying to outmaneuver

each other and and you know, basically

it's this giant freaking article. I just

really cared about the animations. I was

too lazy to actually read this crap. I

read some of it. Uh but basically, uh

you know, we're at each other's throats.

We know that. We know space is going to

be the next frontier. That's why Trump

1.1 created the uh the Space Force

conveniently at the same time as he was

having his first trade war with China

over steel tariffs back during the first

Trump administration.

So anyway, this this whole thing is a

little interesting because it's

predicated on Donald Trump sort of

reinterpreting the law. The law was we

want a direct sale of Tik Tok. Donald

Trump is reinterpreting it and he's

basically saying, "Yeah, we're good. we

have a deal and you know Oracle is going

to own 15% of it which if they own 15%

of it might create profits of like $7

billion of Oracle or to Oracle which is

great because frankly you know they're

they're burning a lot of cash right now

they could definitely use the money

question is you know are they going to

issue stock or cash to buy their stake

we'll have to see but uh point is today

people are enthusiastic things are going

up on this this is great we're pushing

against 617

In my alpha, I've been calling for a

slogish recovery to 617 and then I'm

hoping we can go up even higher

basically because we don't have

catalysts until January 9th. So, think

about this. The Tik Tok deal ain't over.

Uh this deal isn't over. Uh but we won't

uh we won't see the deal finalized until

about January. I think it's the 23rd. It

might be the 22nd. So I'm just going to

say 22 23 just from memory. It's one of

those days. We have big catalyst Jan 9

and 13 for big catalyst outside

government uh shutdown. You know we just

had the worst consumer sentiment survey

I think zero hedge what they say since

40 years. It was remarkable. I mean you

go to zero hedge they were complaining

about this being the worst in 40 years.

So, we definitely have reason to be

cautious and I do think that's why

people are diversifying. I mean, look at

this. I think this is why we are

actually seeing a lot of inflows from

investors into House Hack. I mean, we're

well over $2 million now in investments

in just a week, which for us is

incredible. We're not venture capital

backed, right? Uh I mean, it's it's

incredible. We're this little tiny real

estate company uh with what I think is a

frankly, pardon my French, but like a

in artificial intelligence

software and and machine learning that

we trained ourselves uh mostly me mind

you on the training. Not to take away

credit from the devs because they're

doing great work with the big data and

waitings. Like they're like the unsung

heroes, right? Like they're putting it

all together. But like I'm training

input data and then they're working

waitings with my feedback. We work on

this together and we create this AI. I

think it's a great way to diversify and

it's so exciting. But you know, I mean,

look at this current conditions at the

worst levels in what? Yeah. Over 40

years since they begun tracking it.

We're at worse levels than COVID and the

global financial crisis. This is crazy.

So, who knows? Maybe we could launch

off. But let me put it this way. I think

there's reason to be jaded. So, I'm

going to put a little bottom line on

this, and I've been saying this, but I

think there's reason

to be bullish between now and really

like Jan 9, maybe Jan 8 as people

pre-ell uh the uh jobs data, right? This

is kind of like what we called, if you

remember what we called November 18th, I

posted a video called buy and I said

bullish through D9 right before these 10

Fed meeting, remember? And the market

went straight up during that time. It

was great. So, I'm hoping that like

we've got enough of a catalyst here on

this Tik Tok news for people to kind of

be somewhat blindly bullish between now

and Jan 9th. We still have serious

structural issues. So, I'm still at a

5.4 on the bare bull scale. I've been

pretty stable there. And if you go to

the St. Louis Fred, the 27w week

unemployed level is still trash. Uh, and

this is a leading indicator of recession

because the recession line gets painted

in after the fact and 27 weeks

unemployed always peaks after the

recession's already over. So, it tells

you when you're kind of entering into

recessionary territory when this is

consistently rising, which it is. And

it's possible that we're already in that

blue line recessionary period right now.

Now, the market's not pricing any of

that in because right now it's like,

hey, everything feels like soft landing.

We're going to start hiring again next

year, right? We got rate cuts. We got,

you know, Trump fiscal uh uh stimulus

through lower taxes and, you know, we've

got earnings expectations that'll keep

booming. I hope so because I want to IPO

my startup and I don't want to be in a

crap market. I don't want to be in, you

know, I don't want to try to IPO in like

a 2008, you know? I'd rather wait. Uh so

you know I hope but here's just your

classic Kevin skepticism. Uh and if you

want your fair dose of Kevin skepticism

every single day before the market is

open in our alpha report. Remember you

get lifetime access over at mekevin.com.

So with that said good luck out there. I

will not be here Monday and Tuesday

because I'm going to take a break. So I

love y'all. We'll see you in the next

one. Good luck out there. Stay safe and

uh don't get

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praat there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.