WARNING: The Fed is AFRAID.

could the Federal Reserve be on to

something is there a reason Drome Powell

is refusing to even suggest that rate

hikes are possible despite potentially

core inflation trending up at the

beginning of this year and is there a

reason maybe jome Powell is going dovish

in the face of well frankly hopes that

inflation will fall in the second half

of this year He suggests it's because

there's a better balance between labor

and inflation but is there potentially a

part of the labor market that's showing

more stress than maybe they're

comfortable with and those sort of

leading indicators maybe starting to

lead the FED to say well that's how a

recession starts let's analyze it my

going into this piece from Zero Hedge

now this piece right here talks about

white collar job hiring stalling and

they use this AI image right here but

they specifically talk about the

difference of various factors of

employment take a look at this right

here they refer to Indeed job postings

for the United States and show that

Banking and finance media and

Communications and software development

are all well below levels that we saw

below the Baseline preco everything

begins right here right about where Co

begins obviously you see the plummet and

you see the C this black line right here

represents the Baseline and all of those

I just mentioned are below the Baseline

the exception of course of project

management which is slightly above that

and this weakness over here in White

Collar is being talked about anecdotally

as well take for example this even

though the labor market looks strong

there's a lack of job security

especially in Tech which I find that

really interesting because it for a

while it seemed like certainly in 2022

and 2023 it's been difficult to find

Tech workers uh though now it seems like

it's almost daily occurrence especially

when I'm in person at events where

people say hey need a programmer need a

software engineer need are you hiring

it's really interesting obviously we run

a white collar business even though I'm

not wearing a white collar right now but

take a look at this Jack Benedict 25

learned that he and 42 other YouTube

music employees had been laid off in

February all these massive companies are

trying to downsize or replace people

with artificial intelligence he continu

adding that he worries college degrees

are not enough when companies are asking

for 10 years of experience this is

making frankly certain segments of the

market a little bit nervous especially

since 120,000 corporate positions have

vanished from San Francisco LA and

Chicago over the last year per Bloomberg

and we've seen basically declines in

Phoenix and Seattle as well as

flatlining in even Miami and Austin

which are deemed to be boom towns so is

it Poss possible that the Federal

Reserve isn't so worried about trying to

fight runaway wage gains because maybe

people are finally making enough money

to pay for the highly inflated prices

that things now cost housing I think

will continue to be unaffordable I I I

don't know short of this some form of

massive correction which doesn't seem

impending it doesn't seem like prices

are really going to level down anytime

soon so the Federal Reserve has walked

away from the idea of fighting a wage

price spiral instead it seems like

they're most concerned about leading

indicators that

maybe the level of job openings we have

right now with jolts coming in softer

back to pre pandemic close to

pre-pandemic levels and job opening

survey suggesting that hirings maybe

going pre- pandemic or lower maybe the

FED is secretly nervous that the jobs

Market is about to flip now it's

certainly not going to be the consumer

Apple have been buying the dip on this

one at 169 or exposing getting a lot

more exposure around 169 pretty

regularly here Apple now up 4% after

hours why because at least in the United

States you finally had a beat on Q2

Revenue at Apple which included a beat

on iPhone Revenue $110 billion of share

BuyBacks boosted quarterly dividends Mac

Revenue that beats wearables and iPad

revenues missed but those almost always

missed and of course China missed but

when we focus on oh I'm sorry China

shrunk 8.1% but is actually expected to

shrink more so there's actually even

better news from China the point is the

consumer right now is really holding up

especially in America look at Expedia

for example they just reported a beat on

q1 Revenue their adjusted EA beat look

at the trading revenues at coinbase and

keep in mind not all of these that beat

are having their stock go up I mean

Expedia and coinbase seeing their stock

go down but coinbase had this huge beat

q1 Revenue 1.64 billion versus 132

transactions coming at at 1.08 billion

versus 77 5 EPS at 440 versus a do7 they

were expecting the numbers are actually

extremely good and their subscription

and service Revenue that second phase of

Revenue Beyond transactions they think

will come in somewhere around $560

million in the second quarter these are

actually really phenomenal numbers and

it's showing that transition that way

back when coinbase IPO we talked about

that the biggest risk to coinbase is

transaction revenues go down while they

go in sort of a v-shaped recovery where

transaction revenues potentially go down

and then that service side grows well

now that service side is starting to

grow finally at coinbase obviously

you've had a nice surge in transactions

as well but that was always a risk since

IPO and obviously when we had the

correction in 2022 that risk became

magnified as transactions completely

collapsed but the point of this is the

consumer seems to overall still be

holding up so it doesn't appear that

it's the consumer that's really

concerning the FED especially since

leading GDP data suggests we're running

at 3.1 to 3.7% GDP depending on how you

measure GDP especially when you remove

exports and inventory buildup as

companies since you don't really have to

build up inventory with strong Supply

chains the consumer is okay as long as

they have jobs but the FED seems eerily

focused on making sure the jobs Market

doesn't roll over in the face of frankly

the jobset Market potentially starting

to so show real signs of weakness now

we've got some data coming up that'll

give us some more insights but today I

mean yesterday we got the ADP report

today obviously we got uh the continuing

claims both of those were decent ADP

beat slightly and continuing claims came

in at expectations we're not really

expecting to see a sudden flip here in

jobs data but tomorrow we are seeing

jobs data release by the way mentioning

this towards the end of the video Just

For Those loyal folks we are doing a

very brief extension of that code

through the end of the day tomorrow for

the courses on building your wealth

solely because there have been way too

many emails and we just finished

traveling at like midnight yesterday for

our house act Road show that's finally

done and over now uh and so we can

really focus on getting back to people

emailing us for bundles at staff

meetkevin.com uh and so we're going to

wrap that up quietly here by Friday

evening and then we can finally raise

prices uh uh as we uh as we move on and

work on providing more value for those

courses on building your wealth so check

those out down below but understand that

tomorrow we're going to be getting some

important jobs data this data the change

in non-farm payrolls is expected to show

a decline of jobs from 303 to

240 and we're looking for the

unemployment rate to stay stable at 3.8

as well as average hourly earnings

coming in AT3 same as the prior and

year-over-year coming at

4.0 is it possible oh also get some ISM

prices paid numbers which will be good

uh especially since the last ones were

coming a little hot so we'll watch for

those but is it possible that the data

we get tomorrow starts start like

showing an increase in unemployment and

cracks in the labor market yes is it

likely probably not it's probably not

very likely that we're going to see

cracks uh in the Unemployment uh or the

employment Market just yet but I think

the FED is starting to see those leading

indicators and I think they're trying to

Stave off stress in the treasuries

market as well which is why they're

tapering way less than they had been

tapering leading up to well yesterday

now they've announced a reduction in

treasuries tapering down to just 25

billion a month Market expectations were

they'd go to 30 which again implies even

more doish why well it's probably

because the FED is starting to see some

of the early warning signs that maybe

they've gone far enough and the last

thing the FED wants to do is overcorrect

that is the biggest fear that folks have

from the FED that the FED won't respond

quickly enough and that they're going to

overcorrect and drive us into a deep

dark recession treasury yields are

starting to come down the 10e is sitting

at

4.58 and let's take a look at the 210

here as inflation expectations are

falling as well which is great we really

want those inflation expectations to

come down and stabilize but the two1

curve still showing 30 basis points

inverted still suggesting a recession is

potentially around the corner

fortunately though that break even

inflation yield coming down to 2.37

after drum Po's meeting so overall the

bottom line of all this is the consumer

holding up but the FED is clearly

looking at the leading data suggesting

okay we got to be careful here we got to

make sure we don't go too far because we

could maybe overdo it and I want to hear

from you is the Fed going to overdo it

or are they going to pull this off and

stick a soft Landing so to speak I'll be

covering the jobs report tomorrow

morning I'm still more cash than I was

at the beginning of the year but I'm

looking for dips and I'm especially

interested in stocks outside of the AI

chip sector since I really think we've

hit a bubble over there and I'm looking

for some stocks that have really gotten

beaten up or stocks that I think can

grow either as a benefit from AI or

without AI like one of my faves recently

Amazon Amazon and apple both of those

really but Amazon they're profitable on

their junk selling business I mean

amazon.com business I use them all the

time and so I'm really proud of them

that was always a great anchor for the

company now they're profitable now of

course I'm a little concerned about the

accounting Shenanigans over at a company

like carvana given that they recognized

an over $70 million uh benefit in the

value of their investment in an

insurance company to offset and cover up

the fact I mean it's in their financials

it's not really a cover up but you know

publicly they make it seem like they've

got positive earnings per share and that

they're growing they're covering up

their loss with a with realizing a gain

on their stock investment in some

insurance

company seems a little sus they did

though have more Revenue but it's still

a money losing business so I'm staying

far away from that one and personally I

would love to short it there's too much

momentum in that one for me too hot to

touch at least for now anyway thank you

so much for watching let me know what

you think in the comments down below

what is J py are you going to come be

with me at 5:30 in the morning

California time 8:30 a.m. East Coast

time to watch the jobs report let me

know in the comments down below thanks

so much goodbye why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll we'll

try a little advertising and see how it

Go congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

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