An Inflection.

hey everyone we kevin here i want to

give a quick update on an inflection

point while we're in between events over

here uh but anyway we got to talk about

this inflection point that i've been

reading about all morning here and it's

really this inflection point in freight

and what it could mean for the market

and some stocks that we're investing in

maybe shorting or not investing in right

so let's touch on some of these stats

quickly here so there's the impression

amongst shippers and freight companies

that rates are going to fall in fact 33

of shippers expect prices to fall and 58

expect them to be flat

but their outlook of how overwhelmed

they're going to be is down 26

year-over-year and they think they're

heading back to 2020 levels in terms of

how comfortable they felt with what they

call fluidity now they actually note

that so far

their demand for like products like the

end user demand is still solid

but fluidity has improved so much that

shippers feel like uh oh okay this is

gonna start squeezing prices down

because even though we still have or at

least are seeing similar levels of end

user demand we're seeing more

availability for flatbeds trucks

shipping it's easier to secure loads uh

and so now there's the expectation that

rates might quite frankly fall off a

cliff over the next three months uh now

only some folks think rates are going to

fall off a cliff about 33

i think we're gonna follow up a cliff in

terms of shipping rates 58 thinking no

we're gonna stay flat with rates but

this is a really good note and it's

something to know for us going forward

in terms of investing because we'll see

one of the successful trades i had this

year was shorting zim uh a shipping

stock and so i've been expecting that

these shipping stocks are going to get

hit because one of the things that

happens is when we have this fear about

supply chains we'd like to run into

shipping stocks and last week somebody

was saying like oh kevin you know should

i hedge my portfolio by going into

shipping stocks you know look i can't

give financial advice i'm not your

financial advisor but my view is that

usually the worst time to get in on

something is when it's already had its

run right like that's usually when

you're starting to peek out and we're

seeing them so what's fascinating about

the note though is that maybe we're not

actually seeing that peak yet in user

demand i mean people are still traveling

spending money like crazy we know that

we're not seeing that demand reduced yet

but we're seeing some fears that maybe

maybe at companies like under armour and

uh and uh you know wayfair they're

thinking okay yeah it's a lot easier

we're seeing this it's a lot easier for

us to get product now that means we're

gonna slow our price increases down so

we have that product but we're no longer

having to use air freight as much we're

able to get uh containers on vessels and

they can actually come in a reasonable

period of time this is sort of raising

the argument that gosh what if in a year

we look back and we're like oh man kathy

wood was right we end up getting piles

of inventory right and then prices come

down we get that deflation inflation

ends up being transitory they'll end up

being uh bittersweet obviously for folks

like jay powell and kathy but anyway

things to pay attention to now what do i

think about uh investing strategies

going forward well as always like i

mentioned yesterday get ready for real

estate i'm thinking q4 to q2 of next

year so you want to become an expert in

real estate if you're not familiar with

that yet seriously zero to millionaire

real estate investing you could be a

know-nothing in real estate and come out

knowing more than in my opinion mbas or

real estate agents or brokers or

whatever because you want to learn from

people who invest in real estate really

really important right buy and hold

long-term real estate so check that

coupon code out down below very

important but otherwise also i'm

thinking to myself i don't want to be we

already know this in consumer

discretionaries we don't want to be in

shipping stocks we want to be where the

pain is in my opinion uh and

those pain stocks

not so much seeing it right now i mean

obviously this is you know in disney and

some of the travel stocks you're seeing

a lot of demand like crazy but their

stocks aren't really reflecting it and

so you have to ask yourself where can

you be

that's not consumer discretionary that

isn't a flight to safety uh in my

opinion

and i know this sounds like a broken

record but it's it continues to be a

luxury product luxury style consumer

discretionary and uh something that

probably could withstand a a removal of

demand during a recession

and uh to me the the only one that

really knocks or checks all these things

off the list right now benefits from

supply chain improvements uh benefits

from uh luxury consumer demand right

tesla hate to say people get mad at me

for saying that but uh yeah anyway max

do you want to say anything

no all right well thanks for being here

max what do you want to say anything

jack um

the rides are really fun all right let's

go you guys ready yeah what are you

doing i'm so glad we just washed your

hands because i told you to stop putting

your hands in your mouth so the good

thing we just washed them huh

all right we'll see in the next one

links down below

good luck out there seriously leave a

comment down below if you think there's

something better

than you know hey shipping costs go down

tesla hey luxury demand we're in a

recession no problem we got access to

man

anyway let me know what you think bye