BITCOIN: WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW!!!
What this video covers
This market update examines why Bitcoin remains stagnant around key support while indices like the NASDAQ bounce cleanly off the 200-day moving average. The speaker analyzes ongoing geopolitical factors such as US-Iran negotiations affecting oil prices, as well as the historical impact of midterm elections on cryptocurrency and equity cycles. Overall, a disciplined long-term strategy emphasizing dollar-cost averaging, blue-chip hyperscalers, and core crypto assets is advocated despite short-term risks.
Key takeaways
- The NASDAQ bounced precisely off its 200-day moving average, a level that historically signals strong long-term buying opportunities.
- Bitcoin is hovering at support around $76,100 with its higher-low structure intact, while the 200-day moving average sits at $73,200 as a key threshold.
- Current active positions include secured profits on oil shorts and steady open gains on Bitcoin and Ethereum trades with risk managed via breakeven stops.
- Potential Democratic Senate wins could create short-term regulatory headwinds for crypto, but history shows midterm election periods often mark bear market bottoms followed by strong 12-month gains.
- Extreme failure rates among newly launched meme coins (over 99.99% going to zero) justify avoiding speculative altcoins in favor of leveraged major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
- Long-term bullish conviction remains centered on real-world asset tokenization, crypto ETFs, and major tech hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Meta.
Topics covered
- Stock Indices and Big Tech Accumulation
- Analysis of the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebounding from technical support levels, alongside strategic accumulation of major hyperscaler equities including Google and Amazon funded by taking profits from Meta.
- Bitcoin Technicals and Midterm Election Cycles
- Examination of Bitcoin's consolidation above critical support levels and a historical review of previous midterm election drawdowns (2014, 2018, 2022) showing that while post-election volatility may cause sharp dips, substantial rallies typically follow a year later.
- Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Trade Management
- Assessment of oil price volatility driven by conflicting reports around US-Iran nuclear negotiations, managed by locking in partial gains and moving stop-losses to breakeven.
- Meme Coin Risks vs. Long-Term Narrative Plays
- Highlighting data showing tens of millions of meme coins failing to maintain value, contrasting that risk with strategic long-term bets on stock tokenization on Ethereum, spot ETFs, and disciplined dollar-cost averaging.
“Now, a lot of people ask me why I don't mess with meme coins and old coins in these market environments.”
FULL TRANSCRIPT
All right. So, what is going on in the
markets right now? Because Bitcoin seems
to be literally stuck in the mud while
the NASDAQ and the S&P have both grown.
They've both gone up today. So, what on
earth is going on? Let's unpack this all
today without wasting any time. But
guys, if you do like to stay up to date
in these markets, please do me a favor
and hit that subscribe button because at
some point we're going to be back on our
massive rally and you want to be ready
for it. Just before we jump into the
video, please remember nothing in this
video is financial advice. I am not a
financial adviser. Crypto is extremely
risky and no results are guaranteed.
There are some affiliate links in the
description and I may earn a commission
at no extra cost to you. And let's jump
straight into the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ is
up 1% today, which doesn't seem like a
lot, but we've bounced cleanly off the
200 day MA. And remember guys, every
time we get a very interesting uh basic
TA move, I like to point it out because
guys, you know, I don't really mess with
that in-depth TA. I do like simple TA,
right? Basic support, resistance, moving
averages, and a couple of shapes here
and there for good measure. And then I
look at things like liquidation data,
but look at this. Almost to the exact
dollar. 27,964
is where we bounced. And 27,943
was where the 200 day MA sits. Now, I'm
not saying this will hold, but just look
at that. So far, we've bounced cleanly
off there once again. We did almost try
it back here in July. And you can see we
spent a couple of days, maybe two weeks
there underneath the 200 day MA back in
March. But guys, when we dropped below
the 200 day MA, according to history,
it's been a great time to buy. Like,
yeah, we spent a long time under the 200
day MA in this bare market in 2022, but
if you hadn't just been buying the
NASDAQ, right? Maybe you averaged right
there. Had it just bought the Nasdaq
underneath the 200 day MA. And the next
time you started to buy it and then
averaged in, you'd be up 50% on that
trade. And then if you averaged in here,
you might have increased your buy to
maybe, you know, let's say the average
there, maybe a little higher to there.
And then today, you'd be sitting on 105%
move in just what, four years, right? So
it seems to me like buying the NASDAQ
under the 200 day MA seems like a good
idea. But of course, people always want
to argue that back in 2008, in 2000,
there was a big old crash. And yes,
there was. But that's why I like to
follow the idea of long-term investing.
So, I'm here for 10, 20, 30 years and
and dollar cost averaging because it
actually reduces that time significantly
if you just continually dollar cost
average. That's what I do. I'm not
guaranteeing any results for you, but
that's what I'm thinking. But right now,
the NASDAQ has jumped a percent. The S&P
500 has jumped half a percent. And
Bitcoin, surprise, surprise, has also
jumped a percent, but it's basically
stuck in the mud. Look at that. It's
doing nothing. Let's take a look at my
normal chart here. And we're like
basically right on this support. We
still haven't put in uh a lower low
here. Uh it's still a higher low. The
higher low, higher high uh uh formation
is still intact here, guys. And I
honestly just think Bitcoin is waiting
to see what happens. The bulls and the
bears are even right now, at least for
the last five or so days. They're just
waiting to see what happens. The
hyperscalers, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta,
Google, all up between what, one and uh
almost 3% there for Meta. Still down
significantly. If you don't watch my
stock channel just quickly, I bought a
bunch of Google on this big crash right
here, basically at the price we're at
today. And I bought a bunch of Amazon 3
days ago. Right down here, increasing my
positions largely, mostly using the cash
that I made from the trade here. You see
this circle? This is my average price
for Meta right there. I took 25% of the
trade, closed it right here, and then
I've been using this cash to reby the
hyperscalers. I think the hyperscalers
for me are my opportunity for individual
stock picking. But if you want to learn
more about that, Kekeny stocks on
YouTube. You can check that out, guys.
But with that said, what are the trades
saying right now? Well, Bitcoin, you
know, that trade still about the same,
$75,000 of profit, but the Ethereum
trade now $7,500 of unrealized gains.
And we also have the oil trade, $7,400
of unrealized and almost $2,000 of
realized gains here today. Remember this
morning, if you didn't watch my video,
basically what I did was I closed out
25% of the position, very similar to
what I did with my Bitcoin position. I
moved my stop loss to break even. And
now we just wait patiently. If oil does
decide to rally from here, sure, maybe
we get stopped out, right? Maybe it
does. But I have that 25% booked. That's
how I like to trade in these markets. Uh
right now, I'm not getting in and out of
a lot of different trades. I'm just
trying to position myself for potential
moves. That potential move is oil prices
coming down, risk on prices going up
while the market is gearing up for, you
know, escalations with Iran today
directly rejecting reports. It's close
to a deal with the US, saying zero
progress has been made on reaching an
agreement and no concessions were made
on the nuclear issue. Oil prices crashed
more than 5% today on false claims of a
US Iran deal after dropping 8% yesterday
on false claims of a US Iran deal. Iran
says the US response was not convincing
and the US must fully and explicitly
address Iran's seven conditions and act
upon them. Only in this case will the
straight of reopen. So I am still
betting that the price does not or sorry
not the price that there are some uh
concessions. There are some negotiations
that happen and all out war doesn't
break out. Of course I could be wrong. I
don't know for sure what's going to
happen but that's the bet that I'm
making using my money that I can afford
to lose and I am willing to lose right
now. That's the bet that I'm putting
into place. But that is why I showed in
real time the strategy live this morning
of taking that profit, moving stop loss
into break even and all of that because
we just don't know for sure what will
happen. Bitcoin could get rejected here.
All eyes for me right now on 76,100 to
hold for us to make our next move. Very
similar move to this one here. Very
similar right here. Kind of similar to
this one right here. You see Bitcoin
does this, right? It rallies, then it
pulls back close to the previous low,
but doesn't quite take it out and then
head higher. I wouldn't automatically
think that we are crashing. If we do
head into this zone, I'd more think that
would be like a liquidity sweep
happening, but then if we do start to
close below the 200 day MA, which sits
at 73,200, then I would consider us
potentially or more likely to come down.
So, all eyes on this region right now.
I'll keep you guys up to date every
single day uh with these videos. Uh by
the way, if you do want to trade guys, I
do want to remind you of Coinbase. All
right, so 6 hours from now, the Coinbase
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And you can do trading volume if you're
in the top trading volume, the max
price, uh over a 100,000 USDC. We have
the notional P&L over 150,000 USDC and
the percent P&L 150,000 USDC uh up for
grabs there. And that's just the first
prize. We got the second prize and the
third prize there. So if you want to
take part guys, I am taking part in this
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