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BITCOIN: WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW!!!

16m 34s3,166 words443 segmentsEnglish

What this video covers

This market update examines why Bitcoin remains stagnant around key support while indices like the NASDAQ bounce cleanly off the 200-day moving average. The speaker analyzes ongoing geopolitical factors such as US-Iran negotiations affecting oil prices, as well as the historical impact of midterm elections on cryptocurrency and equity cycles. Overall, a disciplined long-term strategy emphasizing dollar-cost averaging, blue-chip hyperscalers, and core crypto assets is advocated despite short-term risks.

Key takeaways

  • The NASDAQ bounced precisely off its 200-day moving average, a level that historically signals strong long-term buying opportunities.
  • Bitcoin is hovering at support around $76,100 with its higher-low structure intact, while the 200-day moving average sits at $73,200 as a key threshold.
  • Current active positions include secured profits on oil shorts and steady open gains on Bitcoin and Ethereum trades with risk managed via breakeven stops.
  • Potential Democratic Senate wins could create short-term regulatory headwinds for crypto, but history shows midterm election periods often mark bear market bottoms followed by strong 12-month gains.
  • Extreme failure rates among newly launched meme coins (over 99.99% going to zero) justify avoiding speculative altcoins in favor of leveraged major assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
  • Long-term bullish conviction remains centered on real-world asset tokenization, crypto ETFs, and major tech hyperscalers like Google, Amazon, and Meta.

Topics covered

Stock Indices and Big Tech Accumulation
Analysis of the NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebounding from technical support levels, alongside strategic accumulation of major hyperscaler equities including Google and Amazon funded by taking profits from Meta.
Bitcoin Technicals and Midterm Election Cycles
Examination of Bitcoin's consolidation above critical support levels and a historical review of previous midterm election drawdowns (2014, 2018, 2022) showing that while post-election volatility may cause sharp dips, substantial rallies typically follow a year later.
Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Trade Management
Assessment of oil price volatility driven by conflicting reports around US-Iran nuclear negotiations, managed by locking in partial gains and moving stop-losses to breakeven.
Meme Coin Risks vs. Long-Term Narrative Plays
Highlighting data showing tens of millions of meme coins failing to maintain value, contrasting that risk with strategic long-term bets on stock tokenization on Ethereum, spot ETFs, and disciplined dollar-cost averaging.
“Now, a lot of people ask me why I don't mess with meme coins and old coins in these market environments.”
▶ 12:06 · HEAR IT IN THE VIDEO

FULL TRANSCRIPT

0:00

All right. So, what is going on in the

0:02

markets right now? Because Bitcoin seems

0:04

to be literally stuck in the mud while

0:07

the NASDAQ and the S&P have both grown.

0:10

They've both gone up today. So, what on

0:12

earth is going on? Let's unpack this all

0:14

today without wasting any time. But

0:16

guys, if you do like to stay up to date

0:18

in these markets, please do me a favor

0:20

and hit that subscribe button because at

0:22

some point we're going to be back on our

0:25

massive rally and you want to be ready

0:27

for it. Just before we jump into the

0:28

video, please remember nothing in this

0:30

video is financial advice. I am not a

0:32

financial adviser. Crypto is extremely

0:34

risky and no results are guaranteed.

0:36

There are some affiliate links in the

0:37

description and I may earn a commission

0:39

at no extra cost to you. And let's jump

0:41

straight into the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ is

0:44

up 1% today, which doesn't seem like a

0:46

lot, but we've bounced cleanly off the

0:49

200 day MA. And remember guys, every

0:51

time we get a very interesting uh basic

0:54

TA move, I like to point it out because

0:56

guys, you know, I don't really mess with

0:58

that in-depth TA. I do like simple TA,

1:01

right? Basic support, resistance, moving

1:04

averages, and a couple of shapes here

1:05

and there for good measure. And then I

1:07

look at things like liquidation data,

1:08

but look at this. Almost to the exact

1:10

dollar. 27,964

1:13

is where we bounced. And 27,943

1:16

was where the 200 day MA sits. Now, I'm

1:19

not saying this will hold, but just look

1:21

at that. So far, we've bounced cleanly

1:23

off there once again. We did almost try

1:26

it back here in July. And you can see we

1:28

spent a couple of days, maybe two weeks

1:30

there underneath the 200 day MA back in

1:34

March. But guys, when we dropped below

1:36

the 200 day MA, according to history,

1:38

it's been a great time to buy. Like,

1:41

yeah, we spent a long time under the 200

1:43

day MA in this bare market in 2022, but

1:46

if you hadn't just been buying the

1:47

NASDAQ, right? Maybe you averaged right

1:49

there. Had it just bought the Nasdaq

1:51

underneath the 200 day MA. And the next

1:53

time you started to buy it and then

1:54

averaged in, you'd be up 50% on that

1:57

trade. And then if you averaged in here,

1:59

you might have increased your buy to

2:01

maybe, you know, let's say the average

2:03

there, maybe a little higher to there.

2:04

And then today, you'd be sitting on 105%

2:08

move in just what, four years, right? So

2:12

it seems to me like buying the NASDAQ

2:13

under the 200 day MA seems like a good

2:15

idea. But of course, people always want

2:16

to argue that back in 2008, in 2000,

2:19

there was a big old crash. And yes,

2:20

there was. But that's why I like to

2:22

follow the idea of long-term investing.

2:24

So, I'm here for 10, 20, 30 years and

2:27

and dollar cost averaging because it

2:29

actually reduces that time significantly

2:31

if you just continually dollar cost

2:33

average. That's what I do. I'm not

2:34

guaranteeing any results for you, but

2:36

that's what I'm thinking. But right now,

2:37

the NASDAQ has jumped a percent. The S&P

2:39

500 has jumped half a percent. And

2:41

Bitcoin, surprise, surprise, has also

2:43

jumped a percent, but it's basically

2:45

stuck in the mud. Look at that. It's

2:46

doing nothing. Let's take a look at my

2:48

normal chart here. And we're like

2:50

basically right on this support. We

2:52

still haven't put in uh a lower low

2:54

here. Uh it's still a higher low. The

2:56

higher low, higher high uh uh formation

3:00

is still intact here, guys. And I

3:02

honestly just think Bitcoin is waiting

3:04

to see what happens. The bulls and the

3:06

bears are even right now, at least for

3:08

the last five or so days. They're just

3:10

waiting to see what happens. The

3:11

hyperscalers, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta,

3:13

Google, all up between what, one and uh

3:16

almost 3% there for Meta. Still down

3:19

significantly. If you don't watch my

3:21

stock channel just quickly, I bought a

3:24

bunch of Google on this big crash right

3:27

here, basically at the price we're at

3:28

today. And I bought a bunch of Amazon 3

3:31

days ago. Right down here, increasing my

3:34

positions largely, mostly using the cash

3:37

that I made from the trade here. You see

3:39

this circle? This is my average price

3:41

for Meta right there. I took 25% of the

3:44

trade, closed it right here, and then

3:45

I've been using this cash to reby the

3:47

hyperscalers. I think the hyperscalers

3:49

for me are my opportunity for individual

3:52

stock picking. But if you want to learn

3:53

more about that, Kekeny stocks on

3:54

YouTube. You can check that out, guys.

3:56

But with that said, what are the trades

3:58

saying right now? Well, Bitcoin, you

4:00

know, that trade still about the same,

4:01

$75,000 of profit, but the Ethereum

4:04

trade now $7,500 of unrealized gains.

4:07

And we also have the oil trade, $7,400

4:10

of unrealized and almost $2,000 of

4:13

realized gains here today. Remember this

4:15

morning, if you didn't watch my video,

4:16

basically what I did was I closed out

4:18

25% of the position, very similar to

4:20

what I did with my Bitcoin position. I

4:22

moved my stop loss to break even. And

4:24

now we just wait patiently. If oil does

4:27

decide to rally from here, sure, maybe

4:29

we get stopped out, right? Maybe it

4:30

does. But I have that 25% booked. That's

4:33

how I like to trade in these markets. Uh

4:36

right now, I'm not getting in and out of

4:38

a lot of different trades. I'm just

4:39

trying to position myself for potential

4:41

moves. That potential move is oil prices

4:43

coming down, risk on prices going up

4:46

while the market is gearing up for, you

4:48

know, escalations with Iran today

4:51

directly rejecting reports. It's close

4:53

to a deal with the US, saying zero

4:55

progress has been made on reaching an

4:56

agreement and no concessions were made

4:58

on the nuclear issue. Oil prices crashed

5:01

more than 5% today on false claims of a

5:03

US Iran deal after dropping 8% yesterday

5:06

on false claims of a US Iran deal. Iran

5:09

says the US response was not convincing

5:11

and the US must fully and explicitly

5:13

address Iran's seven conditions and act

5:15

upon them. Only in this case will the

5:17

straight of reopen. So I am still

5:20

betting that the price does not or sorry

5:23

not the price that there are some uh

5:25

concessions. There are some negotiations

5:28

that happen and all out war doesn't

5:30

break out. Of course I could be wrong. I

5:32

don't know for sure what's going to

5:33

happen but that's the bet that I'm

5:34

making using my money that I can afford

5:36

to lose and I am willing to lose right

5:38

now. That's the bet that I'm putting

5:39

into place. But that is why I showed in

5:41

real time the strategy live this morning

5:44

of taking that profit, moving stop loss

5:46

into break even and all of that because

5:48

we just don't know for sure what will

5:50

happen. Bitcoin could get rejected here.

5:53

All eyes for me right now on 76,100 to

5:56

hold for us to make our next move. Very

5:58

similar move to this one here. Very

6:00

similar right here. Kind of similar to

6:02

this one right here. You see Bitcoin

6:04

does this, right? It rallies, then it

6:06

pulls back close to the previous low,

6:09

but doesn't quite take it out and then

6:11

head higher. I wouldn't automatically

6:14

think that we are crashing. If we do

6:16

head into this zone, I'd more think that

6:17

would be like a liquidity sweep

6:19

happening, but then if we do start to

6:21

close below the 200 day MA, which sits

6:23

at 73,200, then I would consider us

6:26

potentially or more likely to come down.

6:29

So, all eyes on this region right now.

6:30

I'll keep you guys up to date every

6:32

single day uh with these videos. Uh by

6:35

the way, if you do want to trade guys, I

6:36

do want to remind you of Coinbase. All

6:38

right, so 6 hours from now, the Coinbase

6:41

Champions Cup will start. You got 6

6:43

hours. Sign up because you have 6 hours

6:45

until this starts. And what's so

6:47

exciting is there's up to 2 million of a

6:50

max potential prize pool on Coinbase.

6:52

And you can do trading volume if you're

6:54

in the top trading volume, the max

6:56

price, uh over a 100,000 USDC. We have

6:59

the notional P&L over 150,000 USDC and

7:02

the percent P&L 150,000 USDC uh up for

7:07

grabs there. And that's just the first

7:08

prize. We got the second prize and the

7:10

third prize there. So if you want to

7:11

take part guys, I am taking part in this

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