Raw thoughts: playing the crooked game

Hey guys. So today I'm going to try

something different and I'm going to be

filming this video without any script in

front of me. I think it's actually the

first time I'm doing this and um you

know basically I'm going to be just uh

kind of talking in front of the camera

without you know nobody in front of me

but you know I know you guys are

watching so you know I'll try my best to

um kind of lay it out there. you know, I

just wanted to talk about some of the

thoughts that I have in my head in

recent days when I look at the market. I

mean, obviously, I think um you know,

when it comes to the market, I think

fundamentally the way the market is

acting is pretty much the same as it has

been in the past two decades or so. And

the driver of the market remains the

same as well. basically has been driven

by the liquidity and

um the policies of the governments

around the world and you know while the

drivers are the same as before across

the past two decades I kind of feel like

you know I've come to a stage where I

think about the future of the market a

lot um you know especially looking at

the market and the geopolitical

environment these days and I think I

mentioned multiple times times in my

previous videos and also I think I

mentioned quite extensively in my next

phase of capitalism video, but the

market was being driven by the liquidity

from the Federal Reserve as well as the

policies of the governments and the

treasury around the world since 2008.

And I noted that the major reason why

this happens is because there were no

new innovations that came out after 2008

after the smartphone era and things kind

of accelerated from 2020 when COVID hit

and you know the central banks and the

government just couldn't stop anymore

and basically they started pouring money

into the system which acted as the

driver of the overall economy as well as

the stock market and I've told you

multiple times that you know basically

the liquidity

which consists of the interest rate and

the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve

is almost entirely determining the

directions of the stock market not only

in the US but also across any other

countries as well. And from my

perspective investing since then has

become quite easy. I mean basically all

you need to do is monitor the actions of

the Federal Reserve as well as the

government and try to extrapolate their

actions throughout the future years and

you can kind of get a sense of where the

market will head in the near future. For

example, since I started this YouTube

channel in November 2024,

from then until April 2025,

I've been saying to all of you guys that

we should not buy into the market given

that there could be a lot of a major

correction happening in the market due

to any reason. uh and I was factoring in

the political environment, the new

president as well as the liquidity

environment which is you know relatively

changing after the uh the COVID era

after they've uh injected so much money

into the market and they're kind of in a

tapering phase um you know back in 2024.

Now in early April 2025,

I think that was the time when I

actually uh said to you guys that we

should now consider buying into the

market. And I think that was the first

buying call that I've given you guys.

And then from late May 2025, I said that

it's now time to refrain from buying

more into the market and kind of hold

the investments that we have accumulated

in the past month. And then about 3

weeks ago, I told you guys that we

should now consider buying into the

market again because there's been quite

a bit of a correction and the valuations

are attractive and we have the new fat

chair coming into the market as well as

Donald Trump kind of all over the place.

But at the same time, we just need to

consider the fact that the valuation is

quite attractive. Uh the valuation

recovery may happen anytime soon. There

was a very simple logic. You know,

obviously when I made the buying calls

and hold calls, each time I did that, I

got a lot of hateful comments from

people who already own stocks or sold

the stocks or disagree with me, you

know, there were a lot of people who are

doing that. But obviously, you know, as

you guys know, um, you know, I'm not

against any ideas that people have. So,

I just kind of accept and embrace any of

the comments that um people presented in

in in my videos. Now when I was making

those buying calls or hold calls or you

know refrain from the market calls as

you guys all know the only things which

I was monitoring in the market was the

macro indicators the federal reserve

actions and the geopolitical

environment. Now if you couple that all

together basically I was you know

monitoring the macro side of things, the

geopolitical side of things and the

valuation side of things but majority of

my logic was based on the actions of the

Federal Reserve and the Treasury and I

think you guys felt the same when you're

watching my videos. Now I genuinely

think that the macro environment and the

Federal Reserve actions and the

government actions are still the most

important factors which determine how

the stock trajectory moves in the

future. Now when I build my logics on

making investments and a lot of the

things which I just said you know

regarding the macro and and the

government environment a lot of my

thoughts are based on the fact that the

US central bank is the dominant central

bank of the world and also the US

government is the dominant government of

the world which can kind of which can

kind of shift the global monetary

environment and the fiscal environment

and I think it has been that way for the

past century or more than a century now.

The reason I'm filming this video is

because in the past 1 to two months I've

been thinking a lot about how

sustainable the system will be and you

know basically how longer this logic can

be sustained based on the current

environment. And I think the reason I've

come to think a lot about um this is

because of what is happening between US

and Iran. I mean US Iran war aside, I do

feel like the US has printed too much

money and it's injected too much

liquidity into the market. But at the

same time, they've weakened their

relationship with a lot of the ally

nations across the world. But at the

same time, they printed too much US

dollars already that it's really hard to

roll back the amount of liquidity that's

in the market. And also given the

inflation that has been taking place in

the past four years, the gap between the

wealthy and the poor in any country I

guess across the world has broadened so

much that the inflation is a critical

hit to a certain class of the people in

any country especially in the US or any

other developed nations. So when you

think about it, a lot of the people in

the working class and the middle class

or the lower middle class people are the

ones who are living paycheck to paycheck

and at the end of the day the only thing

that they're relying on the most is

their retirement pension. Now in the US

a lot of it goes into the 401k and that

401k is basically the tool that

determines the future life of majority

of the people in the US. Now the thing

that has become really interesting is

that back in the days I don't think it

was this extreme but nowadays especially

after uh 2008 financial crisis the stock

market trajectory and a president's

approval rating is almost linearly

correlated. So basically if the stock

market goes up the approval rating for a

president would also go up and vice

versa as well. Now the reason that has

happened is because of the reason I just