100,000 Condos About to Flood the Market… And No One Wants Them

Potential buyers may also be feeling

uncertain about a shaky economy and a

slow job market. The housing market is

also adjusting to lower population

growth after the federal government

tightened immigration policy. The

slowdown in Toronto and Vancouver now

spilling over to cities like Calgary.

Some sellers though want to see if

demand picks up in the spring.

>> I'm not convinced this is the right

time. I'll have to wait on the sidelines

to see where it is going. It's not

likely potential home buyers will see

lower borrowing costs anytime soon.

>> If you think this is just a normal

market, it's not. We are seeing major

losses and they keep coming. Most people

think the entire housing market is

struggling right now, but one segment is

already deep in a recession. And when I

say deep, economists are now calling it

outright. So, in this episode, we're

going to break down exactly which part

of the market is in trouble, how far

prices have actually fallen, and how

this connects to a new report that just

ranked Canada among the worst places to

live for young adults. Yeah, you can't

make this stuff up. Also, we'll look at

what Queens Park just launched and why

it matters because everything right now

is all connected. And at the end, I'll

show you where the opportunity actually

is. Now, let's get into it. Beimo came

out strong and said what a lot of people

didn't want to say. The Toronto condo

market is in a recession, a deep one.

They pushed back on the idea of pentup

demand and slowing supply. Instead,

they're saying something very different.

There's too much supply and not enough

real demand. And you can see that in the

numbers cuz Toronto condo prices have

dropped sharply now sitting about 25%

lower than the peak. Some buildings are

down even more. These condos are

dragging down the entire national

average. And sales, they're still

falling February year-over-year. And

this is happening while the GTA

population approaches 7 million. Sales

have been lagging for 3 years now and

Belel's chief economist doesn't see a

rebound anytime soon because of how much

supply is still coming. So, how bad is

it? Right now, there are over 20,000

unsold new condo units across the GTA

and developers are only selling a

fraction of what's being built. Now,

zoom out. CHC data shows tens of

thousands of units under construction

across Toronto. And when you combine

that with urban nation and build, you're

looking at roughly 80 to 100,000 units

still working their way through the

system. Supply is definitely building

while demand is disappearing. That's an

absorption problem and that's why this

segment is already in a deep recession.

And here's what most people don't

understand. Those units don't just

disappear if they don't sell. They get

discounted, rented out, or pushed into a

resale market, which many of them are,

which adds even more pressure on resale

prices. Now, this is where it gets

interesting. At the exact same time that

we're seeing all this unsold inventory,

Ottawa is stepping in with a 1.3 billion

fund to convert these condos into

rentals. It's called the GTA rental and

affordable housing initiative. And on

paper, it sounds like a solution.

They're targeting about 2,200 units with

around 550 units priced 25% below market

rent. That's great if you're a renter,

but if you're an investor in that same

building or even in that same area, this

is creating a new problem because now

you're not just competing with other

landlords, you're competing against

discounted rentals. And when rents are

already soft, even a small amount of

discounts, supply can pull that entire

market down even further. So, what

happens next? Most forecasts are

pointing the same direction. More

pressure over time, especially in the

next 6 to 12 months. And if this trend

continues, the condo market doesn't

bounce back quickly. It could grind even

lower before it recovers. Some are

calling for another 10% drop, but not

everything will behave in the exact same

way. larger units, better layouts, good

locations, near transit, you know, the

ones that people want to actually live

in, will hold up better, but the smaller

investor-driven units, that's where the

pressure is right now. So, let's zoom

out because this isn't just about real

estate. The 2026 World Happiness Report,

didn't know that even existed, but

anyways, they just revealed something

important. Young people in North America

and Western Europe are much less happier

than they were 15 years ago. And while

many blame social media, that's a good

one. We need to look deeper because this

survey wasn't just for young people. It

was across all age groups based on one

simple question. How satisfied are you

with your life? On a scale of 0 to 10,

Canada's score just dropped by 0.736

points. yearover-year. That might not

sound much, but that tells that

something big is changing financially,

emotionally, and structurally. Now, look

at the rankings. Finland is number one.

The US is now ahead of Canada, and

Canada sits around the 25th spot. Not

terrible, but clearly moving in the

wrong direction. Now, before I show you

what happens next, we track these market

shifts every single week, so you don't

have to. If you want to stay ahead of

what's coming next, make sure you're

subscribed. Okay, now let's keep going.

And here's the key part. This decline

isn't equal. Younger people are seeing

the biggest drop, and that matters

because they're the ones trying to enter

the housing market. And here's what

they're facing in the GTA. A million

dollar home, it's average benchmark

right now. on a dual income on average

let's just say 120,000 that's eight

times your income historically it should

be closer to three to four times that

gap and that's a problem that's not just

expensive it's unsustainable now let's

talk about who gets hit first it's the

younger buyers trying to break into the

market second it's heavily leveraged

investors the ones that bought 3 four

years ago and now they're facing higher

interest rates and lower appraisals and

negative cash flows. And third,

homeowners facing renewals after using

their HELOC as a credit card. So, what

are smart investors doing right now?

They're recalibrating. They're focusing

on quality, usability, and long-term

demand because not everything recovers

in the exact same way. The properties

people actually want to live in recover

first. This is where the market stops

rewarding speculation and starts

rewarding strategy. Now look, I know

some people will say this sounds

negative. But this isn't about being

negative. It's about being honest. We're

looking at the data, the economy, and

the market in real time. And yes, things

are challenging. But here's the part

that matters. Affordability is starting

to improve. Not enough yet, especially

for younger buyers. But it's moving in

the right direction. Prices are

adjusting. Buyers have leverage once

again. And for the first time in many

years, you actually have time to think

before making a decision. Heck, you have

weeks and sometimes months. That's a big

shift. We're not there yet, but this is

a reset. And resets take time, and they

create opportunity. So, no, this isn't

the end of its transition. And if you

understand it, you can get ahead of it.

If you have any questions about the GTA

market or your situation, feel free to

reach out. Our link is in the

description. Thank you so much for

watching this episode and we'll see you

in the next one. Bye for now.