We Have Seen This Before

Welcome back to my 10 favorite people.

Hope you're doing well. I'm incredibly

excited for today's video because over

the past few weeks, the price of oil has

nearly doubled. The S&P 500 dropped by

roughly 10% and gold dropped by more

than 20%. Yet throughout all of this,

Bitcoin has remained flat and traded

sideways. And that recent resilience is

very impressive. As you can see here,

even with everything that's happened

globally over the past few weeks,

Bitcoin has essentially stayed at the

same price. And that's further evidence

that we would have seen a strong relief

rally for Bitcoin if this geopolitical

situation didn't interrupt it. And this

recent strength supports the base case

that this is going to be a shallow bare

market. Could Bitcoin get its

traditional 70% plus decline? It

definitely could if things continue to

get worse geopolitically. But I still

believe most investors are

underestimating just how strong of a

support area this was throughout 2024

and how hard it's going to be for

Bitcoin to break significantly below it.

But it is to be expected that this type

of fear in the market is going to make

investors lower their price targets and

keep expecting lower and lower prices

throughout this year. And I completely

understand why investors are so fearful.

We keep getting bombarded by negative

headlines and narratives day after day

like researchers saying quantum

computers could in theory be ready by

2030 or Google announcing that quantum

computers need fewer cubits to crack

crypto than originally thought. There's

also a lot of scary headlines and fear

surrounding Warren Buffett's recent

purchase of 17 billion dollars in US

bills and what this could mean for the

market. Even though this is something

that Buffett has been doing for a few

years now and 17 billion is a very small

portion of Berkshire Hathaway's AUM and

investors are very concerned about

rising energy prices with oil hitting a

three-year high above $15 per barrel and

what this means for inflation and the

economy. And those rising energy prices

are resulting in inflation expectations

rising, which is pricing out rate cuts

and strengthening the US dollar, which

has now hit its highest level since

April of 2025. And this has investors

lowering their price targets calling for

a 50k Bitcoin or a 40k Bitcoin. And that

is exactly why Monday's free weekly

report was called Navigating the Storm.

There's so many narratives, so many

headlines, and so many differing

opinions with so-called experts who are

convinced. they know exactly what's

going to happen when in reality it's

impossible to know how these situations

are going to develop. So the best thing

we can do is focus on price action

because this is the summation of all

market participants voting with their

money on what they actually believe is

going to happen. And based on price

action, it seems like investors are

using this opportunity in the cheap

region to accumulate Bitcoin. And that

recent strength doesn't mean that

Bitcoin can't go lower if things do get

significantly worse. But it does mean

that investors are finding value buying

in this area for the long term. And know

that even though there is a chance

Bitcoin could go lower, it doesn't have

to. So they'll want to start buying at

these appealing prices while also saving

some dry powder for lower prices, which

is exactly what I'm doing as well. And

you don't have to take my word for it.

We see this very clearly in the onchain

data. This is the Bitcoin demand from

accumulator addresses. Accumulator

addresses are Bitcoin addresses that

have a history of buying, but they don't

really sell once they buy that Bitcoin

and the Bitcoin comes into the wallet.

And as you can see here, we've seen

quite a big spike in demand from those

accumulator addresses recently. While

Bitcoin has been in this consolidation

region, we see the same thing when we

take a look at what long-term holders

are doing. This is the Bitcoin long-term

holder net position change. The red is

when long-term holders are selling, and

the green is when long-term holders are

accumulating. And as you can see,

they're pretty good at accumulating

during accumulation ranges and bottoms,

and they're pretty good at selling

aggressively when rallying into a local

top. Now, long-term holders are not

perfect by any means. They were actually

net buyers in October of 2025 when

Bitcoin had its major top. But because

long-term holders have such a big impact

on this market, it's usually a good sign

when they have stopped selling

aggressively and are instead

accumulating. We also see a similar

story when looking at the Bitcoin

realized cap, but focusing on the 1 week

to one month UTXO age bands. This is

pretty much looking at what short-term

holders are doing. When you see a really

big spike in short-term holder activity,

that's usually a sign that the market is

quite overheated. Sentiment is probably

in greed and there is a high risk of a

correction. But this very minimal

activity from short-term holders like we

see right now is what marked the bottom

in the past four Bitcoin cycles and is

usually a good sign that all the froth

has been taken out of the market. Now,

there are also indicators that say

Bitcoin still has lower to go, like the

Bitcoin supply in profit, which usually

hits about a 45 or lower in bare market

bottoms. And as of right now, the lowest

it has gone is 52%. Same exact story

with the long-term holder net unrealized

profit and loss. As you can see here,

Bitcoin tends to bottom when the average

long-term holder is underwater, and we

haven't quite seen that yet, which means

Bitcoin could go lower, but keep in mind

that sideways chop can also send this

metric lower because investors get

chopped up in the trading ranges and

lose money even if price isn't really

going down. So, is it reasonable to

expect Bitcoin to bottom somewhere

between 40K and 50K? Definitely. But I'm

not willing to bet on that outcome with

my entire portfolio. That's what I'm

saving my 20% cash position for. As for

what I'm doing with my portfolio, I did

buy some Bitcoin and Ethereum on Monday

morning because the market had gone down

a little bit and I wanted to bring my

portfolio allocations back near their

targets. And it always feels good buying

when there is panic in markets and

sentiment is fearful while the onchain

data and price action doesn't look

nearly as bad. And as always, you can

subscribe to the free weekly report in

the video description if you want to be

notified as soon as I make any changes

to my portfolio. And if you're

interested in my portfolio automation

system or mental models I use to

navigate markets or common mistakes I

see so many investors making, you can

check out the Crypto Enjoyers program

and community. So, we'll see what

happens. But for now, Bitcoin is still

chopping around in this tight trading

range. And the worst thing you can do in

these trading ranges is try to rely on

narratives, headlines, or your emotions

to try and make investment decisions

because they do tend to lead us astray

when things are this choppy and there's

this much fear and uncertainty. It is

great to see that Bitcoin did finally

break that fivemonth losing streak. And

although a 1.8% 8% gain is nothing to

write home about. It's still very

impressive given everything that

happened geopolitically in March and

what all other assets like precious

metals or stocks were doing. And the

Bitcoin spot ETFs bringing in $1.3

billion in March definitely helped. It

was the first monthly gain of 2026. As

you can see here, we had big inflows in

October of 2025, but it's been outflows