TRANSCRIPTIONEnglish

Here are 10 stocks you need to know about before the bear market starts.

41m 20s6,812 mots1,011 segmentsEnglish

TRANSCRIPTION COMPLÈTE

0:02

Hello dear friends. My name is Clive

0:05

Thompson.

0:07

In this video, I want to share with you

0:09

something that most investment channels

0:11

won't tell you directly.

0:13

Not every bare market is a disaster for

0:16

every investor.

0:18

It's true that some companies just don't

0:20

survive bare markets, but there are some

0:23

which literally thrive in them. I'll be

0:27

naming 10 companies that I think can do

0:30

just that if we have a bare market. And

0:34

in those 10 companies, there's one

0:36

special category of stock loved by gold

0:39

and silver enthusiasts

0:41

that can move in the opposite direction

0:42

of the market as a whole. And I'll

0:45

reveal that to you later in the video.

0:48

But first, a risk warning.

0:50

Nothing in this video is investment

0:52

advice. I am not an investment adviser.

0:57

I'm not an investment specialist.

0:59

When I mention specific stocks, I may or

1:02

may not already own them, but I haven't

1:04

dealt in any of them in the last 3

1:06

months, and I have no intention of

1:08

dealing in any of them in the

1:09

foreseeable future.

1:11

Markets can and do often fall much

1:14

further than people expect. You might

1:17

not get back the amount you invested.

1:20

Please do your own research and consult

1:21

a qualified financial adviser before

1:23

making any decisions.

1:25

That's the financial advice or warning,

1:28

should we say, risk warning. But let's

1:31

just talk about what I do when I'm

1:32

buying or selling. Um, I never do

1:35

anything in one go. If I'm thinking of

1:36

buying a position or selling a position,

1:39

I do onethird of it. So, if I'm going to

1:41

buy a certain position, I take one/ird

1:42

of what I'm going to invest and invest

1:45

that third. And then I wait and see how

1:47

I feel. I wait and see what the market

1:48

does. I wait and see if I made the right

1:50

decision. And it doesn't really matter

1:52

if I invest the next 1/3 at a higher or

1:55

lower price than previously. And the

1:58

last 1/3, same thing applies. What I do

2:00

know is that by investing over a period

2:02

of time in tanches, I'm not going to be

2:05

ending up paying the the biggest fool's

2:08

price. I'll be paying an average price

2:10

if I'm buying or if I'm selling, I'll be

2:12

selling at an average price over a

2:14

certain period. That's much more

2:16

satisfactory than selling everything and

2:17

then seeing the price shoot upwards or

2:20

buying something and seeing it collapse

2:21

immediately after you buy it.

2:24

So do things in stages, whatever you

2:26

decide to do.

2:29

Now let's talk about bare markets. And

2:32

first of all, I do not know whether a

2:34

bare market is coming or not. I see some

2:36

clouds on the horizon which makes me

2:38

think that it's more likely than not. Uh

2:41

but it's not overwhelmingly like likely

2:43

at this point. Um but there is some

2:46

nervousness and a lot of people think

2:47

it's coming. So if you believe it's

2:50

coming, here's what you can do.

2:52

Um first of all, let me define a bare

2:54

market. A bare market is a stock market

2:57

index which goes down 20% or more from

2:59

its recent peak. Anything less than 20%

3:03

is called just a correction.

3:06

Most bare markets are short. They last

3:09

sometimes months, sometimes weeks, and

3:11

sometimes just days.

3:14

However, there have been some years

3:16

where a bare market has lasted years.

3:18

For example, the dotcom bubble which

3:20

burst in March 2000. Uh the bare market

3:24

lasted all the way through to 2003.

3:27

Japan's stock market topped out in 1989

3:32

and it took another 30 years before it

3:34

hit that high again.

3:38

Bare markets are more of a feature of

3:40

stock markets. So, it's not a question

3:43

of if we will have one. It's more a

3:45

question of when and that's what we

3:47

don't know. But you got to be prepared

3:49

for one coming because sooner or later

3:50

we will get a bare market. It's

3:53

literally a deadert.

3:56

Now, let's assume that you believe you

3:59

can see the bare market coming. And

4:01

there's a lot of people who think that's

4:02

true, and they might well be right. I'm

4:04

not uh saying that anyone's wrong here.

4:06

So, let's assume that the bare market is

4:07

really coming. What should you do? Well,

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the first thing I would like to say to

4:11

you is it would be a wrong decision to

4:13

sell everything because some companies

4:16

behave much worse than others in the

4:18

bare market and the ones you want to be

4:20

keeping are the ones which are likely to

4:22

go down the least the least volatile

4:25

stocks.

4:26

But there will be stocks which will fall

4:28

significantly and potentially some which

4:30

might go out of business if we have a

4:32

bare market.

4:34

Now Warren Buffett once famously put it.

4:37

He said it like this. He said, "You only

4:40

find out who's been swimming naked when

4:43

the tide goes out."

4:46

Well, the stock market's a bit like

4:48

that.

4:50

You only find out which stocks you

4:52

should never have owned after the stocks

4:54

have gone down.

4:57

Often the ones which go down first and

5:00

furthest are the most exciting names

5:03

which led the bull run upwards. These

5:05

are concept stocks where people are

5:07

betting on a future that's not yet

5:09

proven to have arrived. Now, it might

5:12

arrive or it might not for those stocks

5:14

in question, but because they don't have

5:16

any current earnings or not enough

5:18

current earnings, they can fall the most

5:20

heavily. So, the first type of stock to

5:23

avoid during a bare market, and what

5:25

does that mean? When I say avoid, it

5:26

means uh don't buy it. And if you

5:29

already own it, uh you could probably

5:31

think about selling it to raise some

5:32

cash for the ideas I'm going to give you

5:34

shortly.

5:36

So the first thing uh to get rid of are

5:39

the unprofitable growth stocks. These

5:42

are the stocks which have been flying to

5:44

the sky on a concept on a whim uh on an

5:47

idea of a narrative some something

5:48

that's going to happen in the future. Um

5:53

these kind of stocks could drop 60 70 80

5:56

even 90% in a bare market and of course

5:58

some might never recover.

6:01

The next type of stock that you want to

6:04

avoid before a bare market or during a

6:06

bare market are the heavily indebted

6:08

companies. These are companies which

6:10

have high levels of debt. If we go into

6:13

a bare market, everybody will be drawing

6:15

in their horns including the banks. they

6:18

will be more reluctant to lend and

6:20

they'll be even more reluctant to lend

6:22

to the people or the the firms which

6:24

have the biggest levels of debt relative

6:26

to their assets or their equity.

6:29

That means that those companies might be

6:31

faced with paying higher margins, higher

6:34

interest rates and face more ownorous

6:38

conditions like uh stronger um covenants

6:41

or more collateral. None of that is good

6:45

for the companies concerned and I

6:47

wouldn't own those companies.

6:50

Another type of company to avoid are the

6:51

speculative junior precious metal

6:54

miners.

6:56

Now I'm not trashing speculative or

7:00

junior precious metal miners in general.

7:03

Uh I'm talking about the ones which have

7:05

the least cash runway. Now there are

7:08

some companies which have got a lot of

7:10

gold in the ground. um but they have

7:15

also have a lot of cash so they can keep

7:16

going for years and years. I'm not

7:18

really concerned about those or I'm less

7:20

concerned. The ones you really need to

7:22

be concerned about are the ones which

7:23

have got let's say less than a year's

7:25

runway of cash and you can find that out

7:29

very simply by going to simply Wall

7:30

Street and you'll you'll find it in the

7:32

risks if that's the case.

7:35

So those sort of companies, the problem

7:36

with them is that whilst when times have

7:40

been good, they've been able to raise

7:41

capital to keep paying the bills, but

7:43

when we're in a bare market, people re

7:45

in the horns and are not so willing to

7:47

invest. So when they go to raise

7:49

capital, they'll find it much harder to

7:51

get any. And that does mean if they

7:53

don't get it, they can't pay the bills,

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    Here are 10 sto… - Transcription Complète | YouTubeTranscript.dev