We Know Who The NBA MVP Is...

Not that long ago, it seemed like we

knew who the NBA MVP was going to be. It

was going to be Shay Gilgitis Alexander.

And now, I'm not so sure. We still have

a handful of games left. We don't have

to make this decision today, but I

wanted to go through all of the

candidates and what I believe is a

threeperson race. And I'm going to begin

by talking about the guy that I think is

going to finish in third, but still has

been underdised as an MVP candidate this

season. And that's Luca Donich. Nobody

in the league right now accounts for

more offensively on a possession

bypossession basis than Luca does. He's

going to lead the league in scoring by

over two points. He's third in the

league in assists. And I don't think

that we really talk enough about how

much he does for the Lakers, how

efficient he's been, and the overall

volume at which he's playing. He's

leading the league in shot attempts,

shots made, free throw attempts, points

overall. And interestingly, compared to

the other guys on this list, you might

not think that Luca has an argument

compared to the other guys on this list.

His argument would be a his team isn't

as good. That would be argument number

one. And argument number two would be

volume. He's played more minutes than

either of these guys. We'll get to the

minutes conversation later, but volume

would be the case for Luca. Ultimately,

I would vote for him. I would vote for

him third, but I still feel like he

needs to be mentioned. Now, obviously,

the two guys at the top of the race here

are Shay Gilis Alexander and Victor

Wemanyaba. And I want to talk about

Sheay for a second because I'm not

positive that we are properly

contextualizing how good of a season SGA

is having. He was really good last year.

They won the title and I think we're

kind of lumping it in with last year's.

He's been even better this year and

really I think he's been historically

good. This is one of the best modern

guard seasons of all time. That's what

SGA is putting together this season.

He's averaging over 31 points per game,

shooting 55% from the floor. Those

numbers are generally reserved for like

Hall of Fame bigs. You're not supposed

to be this efficient and score this much

as a guard. this century. The only other

guy that scored 30 points per game and

shot 55% from the floor is Giannis.

That's it. You're not supposed to be

this efficient as a guard. If you go

back further into history, it's guys

like Michael Jordan. There's a couple of

other guys. There's a Kareem season.

Generally speaking, this is Michael

Jordan does this as a guard and then

it's a bunch of bigs. And that's the

category that Shay has put himself in,

not only last year, but this year as

well. And I think he's been even better

this year. And the other differentiator

between him and other guys that

typically carry this much of a burden

offensively is that he plays on both

ends of the floor and he's he's not like

an allNBA level defender, but he tries

and he's actually impactful. And I think

that's one of the reasons why he won the

award last year over Nicole Joic. It's

harder to be an impactful defender at

the five spot the way Joic has to try

and be than it is for someone like SGA

on the perimeter. But regardless, he is

more of a plus defensively certain

certainly than Joic is. I think that's

the reason, the main reason that he won

the award over Joic last year. It's also

interesting, by the way, that I don't

have Jokic in my top three. He's had an

incredible season. I think there's like

a a way out there Kawaii case. If he

gets to 65 games, there's a lot of guys

that have had incredible years. And I

think as of this recording, myself and

probably a lot of other people still

have SGA as the favorite, but that

doesn't necessarily mean that he's going

to win the award. We still have a

handful of games left. If you're going

to make the case for SGA, it's all the

historical stuff that I just talked

about. It's also the fact that his

co-star in Jaylen Williams has missed

most of the season has largely been a

non-factor during the year and they've

got the best record in the league. Now,

that might not be the case by the time

the season is over, but again, if you're

making the case today, that is how you

argue for Shay Gildas Alexander to win

back-to-back MVPs. The last guy here

though is the most interesting case of

the three. I right now would vote him

second, but it would be possible

depending on how the rest of the year

goes for me to put him in first place.

and it's Victor Webemanyama. And if

you're going to talk about Wemby, I

don't really think the stats are things

that you need to bring up. I'm going to

show them on screen, but I don't think

it's a statistical argument. The

argument for Victor Webmanyama is if you

want to talk about overall impact on

both ends of the floor and you account

for offense and defense equally, he is

the MVP of the league. Now, if you don't

want to do that and you want to do what

we have done historically with the MVP,

which is reward guys that are really,

really great on offense, that's fine.

You can do that. But if you're talking

about overall impact on a possession

bypossession basis when WMBB's on the

floor, he's the most impactful player in

the entire league. And what he does on

defense is the best thing that any

single player does in the entire league.

Nobody in the NBA, nobody in basketball

is better on one end of the floor than

Victor Wemana is on defense. Is more

impactful on one end of the floor than

Victor Webyama is on defense. I also

think that it's interesting that you can

look at the head-to-head matchups

between San Antonio and Oklahoma City

this year and show that as an advantage

for WBY. Now, granted, it's difficult to

actually really account for that when

you think about injuries and things like

that, but they've played really, really

well against what everybody thinks is

the best team in the league this season,

and I think that's another little check

mark for WebMy's MVP case. The last

piece of this for him is there's no

guarantee that they're not going to

finish with the best record in the

league by the time the season is over.

They're two games back at the Thunder as

of this recording. There's a handful of

games left and they certainly could. And

if that does happen, I don't think it's

crazy to think that that could be a

tiebreaker between him and SGA.

Narratively, it doesn't feel like

they're that close. I feel like they are

that close. That whoever finishes with

the best record in the league this year

is most likely going to win the MVP.

It's also worth pointing out, by the

way, that as much as this is a seasonl

long award, as we go towards the end of

the year, I feel like there's momentum

behind WHMY and behind the Spurs, cuz

they've got the best record in the

league since January 1st, it's only a

couple game difference between them and

OKC, but that can absolutely matter as

we go towards the end of the year. Now,

the last thing that I want to point out

amongst all three of these guys before

we just kind of conclude the race itself

is the minutes played thing is the big

big thing that's going to hold Victor

Wemanyama back. If you look at just

total minutes this season, Luca is is

above each of these guys by over 100

minutes. SGA 2147. That's a lot of

minutes in 63 or 64 games. Wimbby is at

1784 and they're all right around the

same number in terms of games played or

they will be by the end of the season.

WBY just plays like 29 29 and a half

minutes a game. And I think that you can

really feel his impact in those 29

minutes. But it would be historically it

would be an outlier to give a guy with