Here are 10 stocks you need to know about before the bear market starts.
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Hello dear friends. My name is Clive
Thompson.
In this video, I want to share with you
something that most investment channels
won't tell you directly.
Not every bare market is a disaster for
every investor.
It's true that some companies just don't
survive bare markets, but there are some
which literally thrive in them. I'll be
naming 10 companies that I think can do
just that if we have a bare market. And
in those 10 companies, there's one
special category of stock loved by gold
and silver enthusiasts
that can move in the opposite direction
of the market as a whole. And I'll
reveal that to you later in the video.
But first, a risk warning.
Nothing in this video is investment
advice. I am not an investment adviser.
I'm not an investment specialist.
When I mention specific stocks, I may or
may not already own them, but I haven't
dealt in any of them in the last 3
months, and I have no intention of
dealing in any of them in the
foreseeable future.
Markets can and do often fall much
further than people expect. You might
not get back the amount you invested.
Please do your own research and consult
a qualified financial adviser before
making any decisions.
That's the financial advice or warning,
should we say, risk warning. But let's
just talk about what I do when I'm
buying or selling. Um, I never do
anything in one go. If I'm thinking of
buying a position or selling a position,
I do onethird of it. So, if I'm going to
buy a certain position, I take one/ird
of what I'm going to invest and invest
that third. And then I wait and see how
I feel. I wait and see what the market
does. I wait and see if I made the right
decision. And it doesn't really matter
if I invest the next 1/3 at a higher or
lower price than previously. And the
last 1/3, same thing applies. What I do
know is that by investing over a period
of time in tanches, I'm not going to be
ending up paying the the biggest fool's
price. I'll be paying an average price
if I'm buying or if I'm selling, I'll be
selling at an average price over a
certain period. That's much more
satisfactory than selling everything and
then seeing the price shoot upwards or
buying something and seeing it collapse
immediately after you buy it.
So do things in stages, whatever you
decide to do.
Now let's talk about bare markets. And
first of all, I do not know whether a
bare market is coming or not. I see some
clouds on the horizon which makes me
think that it's more likely than not. Uh
but it's not overwhelmingly like likely
at this point. Um but there is some
nervousness and a lot of people think
it's coming. So if you believe it's
coming, here's what you can do.
Um first of all, let me define a bare
market. A bare market is a stock market
index which goes down 20% or more from
its recent peak. Anything less than 20%
is called just a correction.
Most bare markets are short. They last
sometimes months, sometimes weeks, and
sometimes just days.
However, there have been some years
where a bare market has lasted years.
For example, the dotcom bubble which
burst in March 2000. Uh the bare market
lasted all the way through to 2003.
Japan's stock market topped out in 1989
and it took another 30 years before it
hit that high again.
Bare markets are more of a feature of
stock markets. So, it's not a question
of if we will have one. It's more a
question of when and that's what we
don't know. But you got to be prepared
for one coming because sooner or later
we will get a bare market. It's
literally a deadert.
Now, let's assume that you believe you
can see the bare market coming. And
there's a lot of people who think that's
true, and they might well be right. I'm
not uh saying that anyone's wrong here.
So, let's assume that the bare market is
really coming. What should you do? Well,
the first thing I would like to say to
you is it would be a wrong decision to
sell everything because some companies
behave much worse than others in the
bare market and the ones you want to be
keeping are the ones which are likely to
go down the least the least volatile
stocks.
But there will be stocks which will fall
significantly and potentially some which
might go out of business if we have a
bare market.
Now Warren Buffett once famously put it.
He said it like this. He said, "You only
find out who's been swimming naked when
the tide goes out."
Well, the stock market's a bit like
that.
You only find out which stocks you
should never have owned after the stocks
have gone down.
Often the ones which go down first and
furthest are the most exciting names
which led the bull run upwards. These
are concept stocks where people are
betting on a future that's not yet
proven to have arrived. Now, it might
arrive or it might not for those stocks
in question, but because they don't have
any current earnings or not enough
current earnings, they can fall the most
heavily. So, the first type of stock to
avoid during a bare market, and what
does that mean? When I say avoid, it
means uh don't buy it. And if you
already own it, uh you could probably
think about selling it to raise some
cash for the ideas I'm going to give you
shortly.
So the first thing uh to get rid of are
the unprofitable growth stocks. These
are the stocks which have been flying to
the sky on a concept on a whim uh on an
idea of a narrative some something
that's going to happen in the future. Um
these kind of stocks could drop 60 70 80
even 90% in a bare market and of course
some might never recover.
The next type of stock that you want to
avoid before a bare market or during a
bare market are the heavily indebted
companies. These are companies which
have high levels of debt. If we go into
a bare market, everybody will be drawing
in their horns including the banks. they
will be more reluctant to lend and
they'll be even more reluctant to lend
to the people or the the firms which
have the biggest levels of debt relative
to their assets or their equity.
That means that those companies might be
faced with paying higher margins, higher
interest rates and face more ownorous
conditions like uh stronger um covenants
or more collateral. None of that is good
for the companies concerned and I
wouldn't own those companies.
Another type of company to avoid are the
speculative junior precious metal
miners.
Now I'm not trashing speculative or
junior precious metal miners in general.
Uh I'm talking about the ones which have
the least cash runway. Now there are
some companies which have got a lot of
gold in the ground. um but they have
also have a lot of cash so they can keep
going for years and years. I'm not
really concerned about those or I'm less
concerned. The ones you really need to
be concerned about are the ones which
have got let's say less than a year's
runway of cash and you can find that out
very simply by going to simply Wall
Street and you'll you'll find it in the
risks if that's the case.
So those sort of companies, the problem
with them is that whilst when times have
been good, they've been able to raise
capital to keep paying the bills, but
when we're in a bare market, people re
in the horns and are not so willing to
invest. So when they go to raise
capital, they'll find it much harder to
get any. And that does mean if they
don't get it, they can't pay the bills,
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