The Iran War Expert: The Most Dangerous Stage Begins Now (STAGE 4)

Iran has figured out that we can't beat

them. We're not weakening Iran. We have

strengthened Iran and we can't stop

their drone attacks. And what you're

seeing is far more chaotic

decision-making is happening in the

White House than is happening in the

government of Iran and it's evidence

Trump is losing power. So when I look

through the response to the last

conversation, the audience had lots of

different types of questions. Like

there's 90 odd million people stuck

right in the heart of this that often

don't really have a voice. What do you

think happens next for them and what is

Israel's role in this?

>> Well, Israel is playing two roles here

that have not helped us correctly assess

the situation and we'll talk about that.

>> And then what do you think happens with

Europe?

>> NATO is for all practical purposes dead

and what happens next.

>> So for 21 years, I laid out what a

hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran

would look like. And when I was here

last time, every single thing we talked

about unfolded in the first several

weeks of the war.

>> So when you did this 21 years of

modeling these attacks, how did America

come out of this situation?

>> So there was a consistent set of

findings and America can bomb them,

attack them. We could even threaten to

murder all 92 million of them. But the

bottom line is

that is the real danger for us.

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Let's get on with the show.

Professor Robert Pabe, good to see you

again.

>> Great to see you again, Stephen.

>> It's been 4 weeks since we sat down and

talked about everything that was

happening in the war and it's all moved

at light speed. You made some

predictions then. Many of them have come

true already and many of them still

unfolding. But I wanted to get you back

to talk about what the hell is going on.

And I think that's kind of how I started

last conversation. But there's so much

that's being said and I get the sense

that there's a truth that sits

underneath there somewhere because when

you look at what the Iranians are

saying, when you look at what the

Israelis are saying, when you look at

what Trump and America are saying, and

then you look at reality, at some level,

I feel like we're not being told the

truth. My first question to you,

professor, is who are you and who are

you to speak on this subject matter?

>> I am a professor at the University of

Chicago. I have been there for 26 years

almost 27 years and before that I was a

professor who taught for the US Air

Force. I taught conventional targeting

and I thought I was going to go into the

foreign service. I wanted to understand

how we lost the Vietnam War and this

became the origins of bombing to win

>> which is your book I have here in front

of me.

>> That's bombing to win in 1985. I've just

finished all my classes and I have to

pick a topic for my PhD. I wanted to

find the book that laid out all the air

campaigns and that explained why Vietnam

was a loser. Where did that L come from?

When you say air campaigns, for someone

that knows nothing about military

conflict, what do you mean by air

campaigns?

>> What I mean with an air campaign is when

you have military aircraft who were not

just doing a single raid bombing one

target one day, but doing a campaign

over days, weeks, months. in the case of

Vietnam over years.

>> And you wanted to figure out why

countries that do these military

campaigns, which is pretty much what's

going on now in the Middle East, why

they don't tend to win.

>> Why they don't win when they're so

strong? Why is it that when a strong

power really gets its act together, it's

not careless, it's really thinking hard,

it then applies this force, a campaign

overtime and comes out a loser.

>> And you modeled for 20 years a war with

Iran versus the United States.

>> That's exactly right. I imagined uh in

class for 90 minutes I laid out what a

hypothetical bombing campaign of Iran

would look like starting with the

bombing of its nuclear enrichment sites.

There's multiple sites. There's uh Ford

which is an industrial enrichment where

there are centerfuges. There's Natans

also centuges. There's Esphon where you

have gasification of the ore so you can

make the centurfuges more efficient. So,

it's not just one target. There's a

whole target set, a complex of targets.

And so, what I would do is I would lay

out here are the aircraft that could be

used. Uh, here are the likely results at

a tactical level.

Ah, yes, just for context. So, we're

looking at a map of Iran and we're

looking at the Persian Gulf. And um Iran

of course is to the east of the of the

Persian Gulf and Thran is up to the

north middle. Right in the middle are a

whole series of these nuclear sites. You

have Sagad which is where the uranium

ore actually comes from. They don't have

to bring in ore. They have plenty of

ore, but the ore has to be distilled so

that you can get the tiny bits of

uranium 235 you need for uh enriching

the uranium for either nuclear reactors

or bombgrade uranium. That's first none

at esphon to gasify the ore so that when

it spins in the centerfuge uh facilities

at Natans and Ford, you can get the

purity of the uranium 235. That's what

we're talking about here when we say

it's enriched.

>> So when you did this 21 years of

modeling these attacks, how did the

model show

America came out of this situation?

>> There was a consistent set of findings

you just couldn't ignore, Stephen, which

is our bombers would always be able to

destroy the target, the industrial

facility that was enriching the uranium.

The problem always was, no matter uh

which year we did this, you wouldn't be

able to destroy the enriched material,

the actual gold. So, if you're panning

for gold, you see what I mean? And

you've got the gold. Uh you can destroy

the pan, you can even destroy the river,

you can't get the gold. So, let me

repeat that back to you in layman's

terms, and you tell me if I'm correct.

So they they could bomb these sites

where they're making the enriched

uranium, but it wouldn't destroy the

enriched uranium. It would just put it

underneath a bunch of rubble.

>> That's right.

>> So you can bomb it, but you're basically

just kicking the can down the road

because at some point they can go back