2026 will be India's Hottest Year | SUPER El Niño is Coming | Dhruv Rathee

In 1877,

the summer was so hot and terrifying

that in the Madras Presidency of British India,

millions of people were killed.

Every road, every village,

was full of corpses.

In this one massacre,

about 2 crore people were killed.

It was a famine that made India almost barren.

But surprisingly,

it wasn't just India.

In the same year,

there was a terrible massacre in China.

About 2 to 3 crore people died.

There was a famine in Brazil as well.

About 200,000 people died.

Egypt, Morocco, Ethiopia, and Southern Africa,

all these places were hit by the plague.

Throughout the whole world, on different continents,

millions of people were dying of hunger.

In Minnesota, America,

that year was called the year without a winter.

The winter season must have disappeared that year.

The question is, what happened in 1877?

Its root cause was not an earthquake,

war, or disease.

In reality, it was a natural phenomenon

that started thousands of kilometers away, on the coast of Peru,

in a small part of the ocean.

In the 70s, Peruvian fishermen named it with love,

El Niño,

meaning a small child.

But that year, this natural phenomenon became so extreme,

so extreme,

that it became the cause of the deaths of millions of people.

That year, it was named Super El Niño.

And today, in 2026,

after about 140 years,

it is coming back.

The biggest weather forecasting centre in Europe,

with the latest models from the ECMWF,

says that the biggest El Niño in the last 140 years is coming.

Some experts are calling it the Mega El Niño.

And it is being said that the summer of 2026,

the most dangerous summer in human history,

is coming.

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The Indian Meteorological Department has started giving heatwave warnings.

The temperature in Delhi has exceeded 40°C.

In UP and Rajasthan, it's 42°C to 43°C.

In cities like Nagpur, Bhopal, and Bhubaneswar,

it has reached 45°C.

And it's still only April.

A video went viral in Bangalore

where crayons were kept in the sun

and started melting.

They were turning into colorful liquid and flowing in the tray.

To understand this issue better,

we need to know what exactly El Niño is.

In simple terms,

in the eastern and central parts of the Pacific Ocean,

where cold water is usually expected,

the water suddenly gets unusually hot.

And when trillions of liters of water get heated at once,

so much heat is released

that the wind, rain, and weather patterns of the entire planet change.

The Pacific Ocean is the world's largest and deepest ocean.

The winds normally blow in an easterly to westerly direction.

These winds are called trade winds,

and they mostly flow from America to Asia and Australia.

What happens is that the water on the surface of the Pacific Ocean

starts to flow towards the West,

toward Australia.

And when the water flows across,

the deep water below the sea starts moving upward in the east.

So the water starts rising from the sea near South America.

And this water is comparatively colder.

It has more nutrients.

This is a normal situation,

where warm water flows towards Australia

and cold water flows towards South America.

When the water is warm,

it evaporates more easily.

And because of that evaporation,

clouds form,

leading to heavy rain near Australia.

But now imagine that the trade winds have weakened.

When the winds are not blowing fast,

the cold water coming up toward South America

will stop rising.

The surface will remain hot,

and the rain intended for Australia

will fall in the middle of the Pacific Ocean

or elsewhere.

This phenomenon is called El Niño.

It is like a cycle.

But it's not a regular cycle.

Sometimes it comes every 2 years,

every 5 years, or every 7 years.

But when it happens, it lasts for 6 to 12 months.

And during this duration,

the weather patterns around the world change.

The region of Australia becomes very dry.

There is a lack of rain.

Bushfires are seen.

This dry condition is also carried over to Southeast Asia and India,

where there are weak monsoons and intense heatwaves.

So an ordinary El Niño is bad news for India.

But this year, it could be especially bad news.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the USA

issued its latest advisory in April 2026,

stating that between May and July 2026,

there is a 61% chance of the formation of an El Niño.

And this timing is the most dangerous thing

because El Niño will reach its peak

just as India's monsoon season is reaching its peak.

That is, right when we need rain the most.

Our crops are dependent on the monsoon, and El Niño could destroy everything. The second problem

is the intensity. According to the NOAA, it could be a very strong El Niño.

The temperature of the Pacific Ocean can rise by 2°C.

That makes it a Super El Niño.

You might think that it is only 2°C.

But the fact that the water is more than 2°C warmer

makes a huge difference.

You can understand this using the 2015-16 reference.

The last time a Super El Niño occurred was in 2015.

That year, Marathwada received 40% less rain.

There was 14% less rain in the entirety of India.

And record-breaking heatwaves were seen.

In the history of independent India,

it was one of the deadliest heatwaves.

More than 2,500 people were killed across the country.

More than 2,000 people died in Pakistan because of this heatwave.

But this year's El Niño

could be even greater than the 2015 one.

According to Paul Roundy, a professor at New York State University,

this could be the largest El Niño in the last 140 years.

The third major problem is climate change.

Because of this, the Earth's average baseline temperature has increased.

In 2026, it was around 1.4°C

higher than the pre-industrial average.

This is where the real scary twist comes in.

As I told you, El Niño was a common weather event

that had been occurring for thousands of years.

Before climate change, when El Niño arrived,

the temperature used to rise by 1.4 to 1.5°C.

But today, the baseline is already at 1.4°C.

Now, El Niño will add another 1.5°C.

The net result is 2.9°C.

This huge temperature anomaly has never been seen in human history.

Imagine sitting in a room where the temperature is 40°C

and someone turns on a heater.

This is the mixture of climate change and Super El Niño.

The El Niño that will arrive in 2026

will have a four-layer impact on India.

The first layer is the monsoon season.

The Indian Meteorological Department

has predicted the lowest normal monsoon since 2015.

The normal rainfall is expected to be only 92%.

Apart from parts of Northeast India, Northwest India, and the South Peninsula,

the rest of the country will face a deficit.

The second layer is agriculture.

The problem is that about 51% of India's agriculture

is completely dependent on the monsoon.

The third layer is heatwaves.

Due to Super El Niño, the probability of intense heatwaves increases.

The forecast says that in East Central India, Northwest India,

and the Southeast Peninsula,

there will be more heatwave days than usual this year.

2024 was the hottest year in India's history.

Scientists predict that by 2026,

the heat records of 2024 will be broken.

The fourth layer is the effect you will see directly at home.

A below-normal monsoon means lower food production.

And lower food production means higher food prices.

Data shows that in an average El Niño year,

global non-fuel prices rise by 5%.

In a Super El Niño year,

the situation is even worse.

In the case of food,

inflation goes up by 9%.

And India's inflation is already high.

On one hand, the pressure of war in Iran,

coupled with a bad monsoon,

can make things even worse.

And the worst effect of this will be on those people