The Global Politics Expert: The Real Global Danger is What Comes Next!

These conversations aren't always easy,

but nonetheless, they are important. So,

every single year, Professor Ian Bremer,

who's one of the world's leading

political scientists, produces this risk

report, and it highlights the top 10

biggest risks that everybody should be

thinking about. And today, he's going to

talk to me about the three that matter

the most. So, he predicts that a US

political revolution is on its way. the

US has become the biggest driver of

geopolitical uncertainty in the world

and in my view Trump will fail.

>> And he also says that the other thing

everybody needs to be talking about and

aware of is what's really playing out

with AI behind the scenes.

>> They created a model which is so

powerful that they couldn't release it

because it would have been an immediate

systemic risk to the global economy and

our security and artificial intelligence

is eating its users. and we can talk

about that.

>> And lastly, I want to end on a point of

optimism. Can we take this craziness and

turn it into a utopia with realistic

solutions?

This is super interesting to me. My team

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Ian Bremer, what is this document that I

have in front of me here?

>> This is our top risk report. We put it

out at the beginning of every year. try

to help people around the world

understand the risk environment

globally.

>> So for the last 30 years your firm has

been trying to understand the world to

help make better decisions based on the

big picture of what's happening

geopolitically.

>> Yeah.

>> And every year your firm releases this

top risk report.

>> The 2026 one appears to be pretty

prophetic because a lot of things that

you list as the top risks are playing

out before our eyes. For anyone that

hasn't read this report, what are the

most important subjects? You wrote this

in January. We're now sat here in April,

I believe.

>> What are the most important subjects of

the top 10 risks that you think we

should talk about today? I think that

there are three that are really big. Um,

the first is that the United States has

become the biggest driver of risk, the

biggest driver of geopolitical

uncertainty in the world. And we see

that with the tariffs. We see that with

Venezuela. We see it with Greenland. We

see it with Iran. I mean, if there was

that level of uncertainty in a smaller

political system, and that happens all

the time, we wouldn't care as much

because the global impact would not

matter. But everyone out there is

affected by even small changes in the

United States. Suddenly, big changes in

the United States. The Americans are

saying, "We no longer want to play by

the rules that we set up historically.

We don't want the free trade system that

we put together. We don't want to be the

global policeman that is paying for the

collective security. We don't want the

open borders that used to welcome so

many people from around the world. We

want a very different set of rules. It's

the American system is not being

challenged by the Chinese saying we

don't want the Americans themselves and

the leadership are saying we refuse to

be the leader that we used to be.

>> So that's number one. Yeah, that is

number one.

>> And this is a critical risk.

>> That is a critical risk. That's but it's

the most important without any question.

>> And again, I say critical in terms of it

is happening right now. It is

overwhelmingly likely. It's

overdetermined. Um and the impact is

massive. So there's no way you could

look at the geopolitical order today and

not say this is the most important thing

that is not just driving headlines but

that's creating real movement in how the

global economy works, how global

politics works, global security,

everything is driven by this change.

>> And what's the second one?

>> The second one is the big question of

how the second most powerful country in

the world is responding to all of that.

Now we in the top risks piece talked

about overpowered. Overpowered being the

global energy dynamic. How China has

been working to build the most effective

electric vehicles all over the world at

scale and the batteries all over the

world at scale and the critical minerals

in rare earths for decades now. not just

having access so they can exploit them,

but also so that they can reprocess

them.

>> For anyone that doesn't know what

critical minerals are,

>> Yeah.

>> and how important they are to our

everyday lives, could you give us some

color there?

>> Sure. We're talking about all of these

things that you take out of the ground,

whether it's lithium, antimony,

>> which is in all these devices,

>> in every device, in your car battery,

it's in your missile systems and your

advanced weaponry that keeps you safe at

home or allows you to go to war against

somebody. I mean, you can't have an

advanced economy without critical

minerals and rare earths. and and the

Chinese have been investing at scale

globally in that capability for decades

now, thinking long term. And a lot of

the rest of us have not been thinking

long term. We're like just in time,

globalization. How do we make the most

money now for our next quarterly return?

And that reality is making China not a

better economy today, but it's setting

them up for a much stronger long-term

trajectory. So, as a risk, you're going

to ask me to do this. It is not as

critical as the US political revolution

because this is focusing on 2026 and

China is playing out over a longer

period of time. But it is absolutely

severe because the Chinese understand

that long-term

as countries are saying the Americans

are less predictable and we're more

vulnerable to their sudden changes in

decisions. Many more countries are

saying well we want to hedge and do more

with the Chinese and those decisions

really matter. If this continues, if

this direction of travel continues, what

happens next in terms of global order,

in terms of the Middle East, in terms of

all of these things we've talked about,

>> Trump will fail. Um, and and I think

that the level of policy incompetence

and unwillingness to take on expertise

is ensuring that it will fail. He's

quite unpopular on so many issues right

now. He's going to lose in a big way in

the midterms coming up in November. And