WW3 Threat Assessment: Trump Bombing Iran Makes WW3 More Likely!

What does the United States think it's

going to gain from decapitating the

Iranian leadership?

>> Well, that that's kind of obvious based

on what the president has said. It's

that

>> on what the president has said.

>> I'm I'm just saying based on what the

president says.

>> You can't trust anything that you're

hearing right now. You can't trust

anything that you're reading right now.

Two to multiply.

>> It's not paranoid. Absolutely. It is

paranoid to suggest that everything is

misinformation. Iran doesn't have a

nuclear weapon. So, it's not a nuclear

threat.

>> You speak a different nuclear language

than I do. This regime is at its lowest

lowest point. Why not strike it now?

>> I mean, I can give lots of reasons why

you wouldn't strike it. The ability to

create their own.

>> What are you concerned about? And what

are the unintended consequences that

you're foreseeing?

>> There is a domino effect that happens

with every decision that the United

States makes. So

>> guys, I've got a quick favor to ask you.

We're approaching a significant

subscriber milestone on this show and

roughly 69% of you that listen and love

this show haven't yet subscribed for

whatever reason. If there was ever a

time for you to do us a favor, if we've

ever done anything for you, given you

value in any way, it is simply hitting

that subscribe button. And it means so

much to myself, but also to my team

because when we hit these milestones, we

go away as a team and celebrate. And

it's the thing, the simple, free, easy

thing you can do to help make this show

a little bit better every single week.

So that's a favor I would ask you. And

um if you do hit the subscribe button, I

won't let you down. And we'll continue

to find small ways to make this whole

production better. Thank you so much for

being part of this journey. Means the

world. And uh yeah, let's do this.

Benjamin, Annie, Andrew, first and

foremost, thank you for being here

today. I I have to start with the

question that's been on my mind as

somebody that doesn't know a huge amount

about geopolitics, which is what the

hell is going on? And I and I say that

because that's exactly what I mean. What

is going on and what context do I need

to understand this sort of historical

context of the actions we're seeing in

Iran with this war right now? Benjamin,

I know you've got a a personal

connection to Iran because your family

fled Iran, I believe.

>> Yeah, I was uh I was 2 years old when we

left in March of 1979. Um uh a few

months after the sha had left and uh

just after Hani had arrived.

>> What is the sha and what is hermeni?

Yeah, sorry. The sha uh the former

monarch of Iran um the Pathfi dynasty

which came into power in the 1930s

deposing a previous dynasty that had

been around for a couple hundred years

and um the he his father brought in that

dynasty and then it was eventually he

was deposed by the British and the

Americans who felt he was getting too

close to the Nazis during World War II

concerned about supply routes for the

Nazis, oil and his son was installed on

the throne at a very young age, I

believe 18 or 19 and Um he ruled Iran

from uh from that period 1941

1942 around that time all the way

through 79 a great ally of the United

States over over time eventually um and

uh was depos was um overthrown on a

revolution and uh by Kumeni who was a

senior cleric who had been a thorn in

the Shaw side since the 60s was exiled

first to Turkey then Iraq then

ultimately to France right outside Paris

actually from there he basically led the

revolution ution that led to the sha's

uh removal um after 79.

>> And how was Iran different when the sha

was in power versus when her was in

power?

>> That depends on who you ask. Um it was a

constitutional monarchy. The sha had

powers that exceeded beyond what we

think a constitutional monarchy has

today like in Great Britain. Um he was

he ruled with an iron fist when he

needed to. He was an authoritarian, but

he also was one that was rapidly

modernizing Iranian society, wanted to

make it more like the West, using Iran's

immense oil resources and wealth to

really accelerate development, building

of social institutions, healthcare, uh,

literacy, modernization, all of those

things. That was his focus. Make Iran

more like the West. And, uh, in that

sense, he succeeded, but it came at the

expense often times of civil liberties

for many people. It came at the expense

of freedom for those who wanted to

essentially practice religion, Islam,

Shia, Islam in their own way. The Sha

was not hostile to religion, but he he

his policies were inconsistent with

where the traditional religious Iranians

wanted to go. And it sort of created a

schism in society. And you also had um a

wealth gap, an income disparity.

Immense wealth poured into the country,

but it didn't trickle its way downward

into the sort of the village and rural

poor. And so there was a lot of

frustration, a lot of disenchantment

with his policies. And that led to sort

of this populist backlash of wanting

something that was more democratic, more

accountable, uh more like the West uh

ironically. And uh and that sort of was

the beginning of of where that cycle

led.

>> And so how did Hani take power of Iran?

He led a movement, a mass populist

movement, not a religious one, but meant

to um go across multiple socio-economic

and political divides and unified the

opposition under this idea of removing

the monarchy, removing dependence on the

west. He specifically said Iran uh the

United States was to large part to blame

for Iran being in the state that it was,

for people not having the the the the

things they needed to live, the

freedoms, the liberties. He blamed the

Shaw's um use of the secret police and

torture methods on the United States and

on Israel who he claimed, you know,

taught the secret police how to do these

things. Um there's a complicated sort of

history to that. And he basically

promised them salvation from a what he

did what he portrayed as a puppet tyrant

of the United States and the masses

bought into this. But both the left and

the right really the right consisted of

the the black the Islamists. So you had

the red which were sort of the the

Marxist socialist uh followers. You had

the black and then you had sort of that

middle in between and they all coalesed

around this one charismatic religious

figure very um austere man um one who

didn't really have a lot of luxuries

himself led a simple life but was

consistent with his opposition to what

he saw uh tyranny and despatism and

people bought into it

>> and the Americans didn't like this. The

Americans didn't know what to make of

it. And there was a failure, and I think

Andrew can talk about this as well, over

a failure by the State Department, the

CIA in the 70s to see where the threat

was. They saw the threat coming from the

Soviet Union. They they were still

afraid of Soviet encroachment in the

Middle East, particularly through Iran.

Their concerns were with the Marxists,

the Communist parties. They did not

carefully look at the black. They didn't

look at the Islamists. They didn't see

them as a threat until it was too late.

The Shaw himself blocked or really

didn't give the CIA full access to Iran.

There was limited information that was

coming out. He relied on his own u

intelligence which fed him information

he wanted to hear which is that